Bucks vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Playoffs Game 5

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The Miami Heat (44-38) are trying to pull off an upset as heavy, 13-point underdogs heading into a decisive Game 5 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, and will face off against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday, tipping off at 9:30 PM ET on NBA. The Heat hold a 3-1 lead in the series. The matchup has a 219.5 point total.

How to bet Bucks vs. Heat

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 13 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bucks as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bucks have -698 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +503 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 219.5 points.

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Bucks vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Wednesday, April 26, 2023
  • Game Time: 9:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NBA
  • Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Arena: Fiserv Forum

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends

The Bucks have 42 wins against the spread in 82 games this year. Milwaukee has come away with 54 wins in the 66 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season. Bucks games this year have gone over the total in 41 out of 82 opportunities (50%).

The Heat have played 82 games, with 30 wins against the spread. Miami has won eight of the 24 games it was listed as the moneyline underdog this season (33.3%). Heat games this year have hit the over on 40 of 82 set point totals (48.8%).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Bucks Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo 63 31.1 11.8 5.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Jrue Holiday 67 19.3 5.1 7.4 1.2 0.4 2.4
Brook Lopez 78 15.9 6.7 1.3 0.5 2.5 1.7
Khris Middleton 33 15.1 4.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 1.5
Bobby Portis 70 14.1 9.6 1.5 0.4 0.2 1.4


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
Caleb Martin 71 9.6 4.8 1.6 1 0.4 1.2
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Bucks: Serge Ibaka: Out (Personal)

Heat: Victor Oladipo: Out (Knee), Tyler Herro: Out (Hand)

What you need to know about the Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is eighth in the NBA with 116.9 points per game this year. At the other end of the court, it ranks 14th with 113.3 points allowed per game. The Bucks are posting 118.8 points per game at home. When playing on the road, they are averaging 115 points per contest. The Bucks have been scoring 114.8 points per contest in their last 10 appearances, an average that’s a little lower than the 116.9 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 campaign.

Milwaukee is top-five this season in three-point shooting, ranking fourth-best in the league with 14.8 treys per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 10th with a 36.8% shooting percentage from three-point land. Of the shots taken by the Bucks in 2022-23, 55.4% of them have been two-pointers (65.3% of the team’s made baskets) and 44.6% have been threes (34.7%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

On offense Miami is the worst squad in the NBA (109.5 points per game). But defensively it is second-best (109.8 points allowed per game). At home the Heat are scoring 111.4 points per game, 3.9 more than they are averaging away (107.5). Over their previous 10 games, the Heat are posting 119.1 points per game, 9.6 more than their season average (109.5).

In 2022-23 Miami is 16th in the NBA in 3-point makes (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). In 2022-23, the Heat have attempted 40.8% percent of their shots from behind the 3-point line, and 59.2% percent from inside it. In terms of made shots, 30.5% of the Heat’s baskets have been 3-pointers, and 69.5% have been 2-pointers.

Bucks vs. Heat Predictions and Pick

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You can bet on Bucks vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bucks vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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