Bucks vs Heat Prediction: Picks, Live Odds & Moneyline – NBA Playoffs Game 1

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The Miami Heat (44-38) will try to overcome the odds as heavy, 9.5-point underdogs for Game 1 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs, and will face off against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on Sunday, beginning at 5:30 PM ET on TNT. A 220.5-point over/under has been set in this matchup.

How to bet Bucks vs. Heat

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Bucks as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bucks have -452 odds to pick up the win, while the Heat are listed at +351 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 220.5 points.

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Bucks vs. Heat Game Time and How to Watch

  • Game Day: Sunday, April 16, 2023
  • Game Time: 5:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Arena: Fiserv Forum

Bucks vs. Heat Betting Trends

In the Bucks’ 82 games this season, they have 42 wins against the spread. Milwaukee has been chosen as the favorite in 66 games this year and has walked away with the win 54 times (81.8%) in those games. Bucks games this year have hit the over on 41 of 82 set point totals.

Against the spread, the Heat are 30-48-4 this season. Miami has won 33.3% of the games this season it was the underdog on the moneyline (8-16). Heat games this season have gone over the point total 48.8% of the time (40 out of 82 games with a set point total).

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Potential Starting Lineups and Key Players


Bucks Leaders
Giannis Antetokounmpo 63 31.1 11.8 5.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Jrue Holiday 67 19.3 5.1 7.4 1.2 0.4 2.4
Brook Lopez 78 15.9 6.7 1.3 0.5 2.5 1.7
Khris Middleton 33 15.1 4.2 4.9 0.7 0.2 1.5
Bobby Portis 70 14.1 9.6 1.5 0.4 0.2 1.4


Heat Leaders
Jimmy Butler 64 22.9 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.6
Bam Adebayo 75 20.4 9.2 3.2 1.2 0.8 0
Tyler Herro 67 20.1 5.4 4.2 0.8 0.2 3
Max Strus 80 11.5 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.2 2.5
Kyle Lowry 55 11.2 4.1 5.1 1 0.4 1.9
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Bucks vs. Heat Injury Report

Heat: Kyle Lowry: Questionable (Knee), Gabe Vincent: Questionable (Hip), Nikola Jovic: Out (Back)

What you need to know about the Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee ranks eighth in the NBA with 116.9 points per game this season. At the other end, it ranks 14th with 113.3 points allowed per contest. Offensively the Bucks have performed better at home this year, putting up 118.8 points per game, compared to 115 per game away from home. In their last 10 games, the Bucks have been scoring 120.5 points per game, an average that’s slightly higher than the 116.9 they’ve scored over the course of the 2022-23 season.

Milwaukee is top-five this year in three-point shooting, ranking fourth-best in the league with 14.8 treys per game. Meanwhile, it ranks 10th with a 36.8% shooting percentage from three-point land. Of the shots taken by the Bucks in 2022-23, 55.4% of them have been two-pointers (65.3% of the team’s made baskets) and 44.6% have been from beyond three-point land (34.7%).

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What you need to know about the Miami Heat

Offensively Miami is the worst team in the league (109.5 points per game). However defensively it is second-best (109.8 points allowed per game). At home the Heat are scoring 111.4 points per game, 3.9 more than they are averaging on the road (107.5). In their last 10 games, the Heat are scoring 112 points per contest, 2.5 more than their season average (109.5).

Miami is 16th in the NBA in 3-pointers made (12 per game) and fourth-worst in 3-point percentage (34.4%). The Heat attempt 59.2% percent of their shots from inside the 3-point line, and 40.8% percent from beyond it. In terms of makes, 69.5% of the Heat’s baskets are 2-pointers, and 30.5% are 3-pointers.

Bucks vs. Heat Predictions and Pick

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You can bet on Bucks vs. Heat at every legal online sportsbook. For more NBA odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NBA prop odds, check out the latest NBA lines as well as our guide to the best NBA betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bucks vs. Heat picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on basketball? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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