Bournemouth vs Leicester City
Leicester City travel to Bournemouth Saturday morning to take on the Cherries. Leicester finally got a win last time out blasting Nottingham Forest 4-0 at the King Power. James Maddison finally came to play, getting a fortunate deflected shot in the net and a beautiful free kick. Harvey Barnes also got on the score sheet playing on the left wing. I continue to say that this attack should be yielding a lot of goals, despite them being 19th in the table. The real issue for Brendan Rodgers‘ side has been defensively, so finally keeping a clean sheet has to give them some confidence.
The hope is that Jonny Evans partnered with new signing Wout Faes should solidify their poor defensive record. They looked more stable in this last match, and take on a weak Bournemouth attack come Saturday. We shall see if they can do it twice on the spin. I like Leicester and the over here in this one. These two sides have the bottom two NPxG in the Premier League. So if you just played the numbers, you would say why not play the under. For one, Leicester always concede on the road, and I will assume that until I see otherwise. And again, I just think Leicester have the attacking talent to make this right, and improve their underlying numbers. I will take the Foxes and Over 2.5.
Leicester City ML (+110) 1.5 U
Bournemouth / Leicester City Over 2.5 (-115) 1.5 U
Manchester City vs Southampton
This one you should make a lot of sense to a lot of people. Manchester City are probably the best team on the planet right now. They are at home taking on a struggling side in Southampton. The Saints sit 16th in the table, but have lost three straight and 4 of 5. In all seriousness, this game just comes down to does Man City take them for granted or not. If they do, this should be a cake walk. They won their Champions League match 5-0 midweek, which can sometimes lead to sluggish weekend performances. It hasn’t for City yet, but UCL pileup is always an added variable.
I like Win to Nil and the Under 4. Midweek is a consideration, and I do think they could just get the win in less convincing fashion. It feels like they win every game 5-0, but I think they are due for some unders. Man City have scored 29 goals off of 19.8 xG. That’s really massive outperformance over 8 matches. They have scored 1.2 more goals/match than the underlying data would suggest. Erling Haaland is a huge part of this, scoring 14 goals off of 9.4 xG. I don’t know, maybe he is god in the form of a Viking, but I do think they are due for a 2-0! Let’s ride.
Man City Win to Nil (-115) 1.5 U
Man City / Southampton Under 4 (-120) 1.5 U
Newcastle United vs Brentford
Here we have two above average Premier League sides facing off at St. James’ Park. The Magpies are 4th in NPxGD and Brentford are 7th. Both managers I would say are above average, so should be a fun match to watch unfold. Newcastle are just 7th on 11 points, in large part because of a few draws that should have been wins. They should probably have 2-3 more points at this stage (13.3 xPTS), but it’s a small sample size of 8 matches.
You could say the same thing about Brentford, sitting on 10 points with 12.4 xPTS. My play here is on Newcastle. This is an ambitious project that wants to push for top 6 this season, and likely know they have missed an opportunity or two. Once again, this is a game they should be winning. While I like Brentford, I expect them to fall back closer to 14th from 10th. Playing at St. James’ Park is an advantage, and I do think they have the better side. So I will be on their moneyline Saturday.
Newcastle United Moneyline (-130) 1.5 U
Crystal Palace vs Leeds United
For those paying attention, I basically bet Palace every week. I usually like doing so as a dog or Pk, but I do like the spot here. As I have mentioned before, Selhurst Park is a pretty decent home field advantage in the Premier League. And I’m not sure the market always takes this into account. Both of these sides don’t have a win in each of their last four respective matches. I still have been more impressed with Palace than Leeds, and I was higher on them coming into the season. Palace deserved more from last week’s loss, vs Leeds have just been pretty brutal lately. Give me the home side to prevail here.
Crystal Palace Moneyline (+107) 1.5 U
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