Twins vs Astros ALDS Game 4: Picks, Predictions, Moneyline and Odds – Wednesday, October 11

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The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros in Game 4 of the ALDS on Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET at Target Field. The Astros are ahead 2-1 in the series and can clinch with a win. On the hill for the Twins will be Joe Ryan (11-10), opposed by the Astros’ Jose Urquidy (3-3).

At home, the Twins are favored to win on the moneyline (-127) over the Astros (+107). The total in this contest is set at 8.5.

Twins vs. Astros Odds

Run Line

Minnesota Twins (-1.5)

Moneyline

Twins (-127)

Total

8.5 Runs (Over: -103, Under: -118)

When, Where, at What Time is Twins vs. Astros

  • Game Day: Wednesday, October 11, 2023
  • Game Time: 7:07 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Stadium: Target Field

Twins Injury Report

Name Status Injury
Dallas Keuchel 15-Day Injured List Calf
Jovani Moran 60-Day Injured List Forearm
Tyler Mahle 60-Day Injured List Elbow
Jose Miranda 60-Day Injured List Shoulder
Nick Gordon 60-Day Injured List Shin
José De León 60-Day Injured List Elbow
Oliver Ortega 60-Day Injured List Back
Matt Canterino 60-Day Injured List Elbow

Astros Injury Report

Name Status Injury
Luis Garcia 60-Day Injured List Elbow
Lance McCullers Jr. 60-Day Injured List Forearm

Last Time Out: Twins and Astros

These clubs meet again after the Astros’ 9-1 victory over the Twins yesterday. Cristian Javier (5.0 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 9 K) earned the win for the Astros. Jose Abreu went 2-for-5 with two home runs and five RBI to lead the team on offense. Sonny Gray (4.0 IP, 4 R, 8 H, 6 K) took the loss on the mound for the Twins.

Betting Trends

Twins Betting Records and Team Stats

The Twins have entered the game as favorites 114 times this season and won 69, or 60.5%, of those games. Minnesota has entered 95 games this season favored by -127 or more and is 56-39 in those contests. Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Twins have a 55.9% chance to win. Minnesota’s games have gone over the total in 84 of their 167 chances. The Twins are 84-83-0 against the spread this season.

Name GP AVG (Rank) OBP (Rank) SLG (Rank) HR% (Rank) K% (Rank) BB% (Rank)
Max Kepler 127 .260 (-) .332 (-) .484 (-) 4.9% (-) 21.6% (-) 9.2% (-)
Carlos Correa 133 .230 (126) .312 (108) .399 (107) 3.1% (86) 22.6% (86) 10.2% (40)
Willi Castro 112 .257 (-) .339 (-) .411 (-) 2.2% (-) 24.3% (-) 8.4% (-)
Edouard Julien 107 .263 (-) .381 (-) .459 (-) 3.9% (-) 31.4% (-) 15.7% (-)
Royce Lewis 58 .309 (-) .372 (-) .548 (-) 6.3% (-) 23% (-) 8.4% (-)

Astros Betting Records and Team Stats

The Astros have won in 29, or 65.9%, of the 44 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs in this year. This season, Houston has come away with a win 14 times in 25 chances when named as an underdog of at least +107 or longer on the moneyline. The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Astros have a 48.3% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest. Houston and their opponents have gone over in 87 of their 165 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The Astros are 82-83-0 against the spread in their 165 games that had a posted line this season.

Name GP AVG (Rank) OBP (Rank) SLG (Rank) HR% (Rank) K% (Rank) BB% (Rank)
Kyle Tucker 157 .284 (18) .369 (15) .517 (13) 4.3% (32) 13.8% (9) 12% (22)
Alex Bregman 161 .262 (66) .363 (20) .441 (69) 3.5% (65) 12% (7) 12.7% (17)
Yordan Alvarez 114 .293 (-) .407 (-) .583 (-) 6.3% (-) 18.5% (-) 13.9% (-)
Jose Altuve 90 .311 (-) .393 (-) .522 (-) 4.1% (-) 17.3% (-) 10.7% (-)
Jeremy Pena 149 .263 (61) .324 (80) .381 (120) 1.6% (126) 20.5% (64) 6.8% (95)

Twins vs. Astros Picks and Predictions

Our recommended pick for this matchup is the Twins to emerge victorious (-127 on the moneyline), while we project the scoring will go over the total (8.5 runs).

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WRITTEN BY

Stacy Sailer

Stacy has been a baseball fan for as long as she can remember. She admits that she grew up as a spoiled Yankees fan in the late-90’s/early 2000’s, but has slowly evolved into a disgruntled Yankees fan due to their lone championship title in the last 21 seasons. She follows other sports, but her first love has always been baseball and loves getting to share her insight and knowledge with the Betsperts community.

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