Download App
Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur
We come back from international break with the North London Derby early Saturday morning. Arsenal face-off against Spurs. This one is usually a lively and competitive one. And even more so this season. Both of these clubs had ambitious hopes this season, and have not disappointed. The Gunners sit top on 18 points, and Spurs are not far off in 3rd with 17 points. NPxGD Arsenal are 2nd behind City, and Spurs are 4th behind Liverpool. Regardless, it’s a matchup of two relatively even clubs right now, in what is a game of large importance.
Not only for the rivalry, but also for top 4 and even the Premier League title. In these big derbies, I like to play draws a good amount. Idea being that these teams play up in these matches, which leads to less obvious chances and blowouts. If the game is 1-1 late, a lot of the times these derbies can lead to both teams taking the point. On top of this, Conte has set up the team to concede little to know chances, and to take their 3-4 good chances they have each game. Game state wise and tactically, I think this is a draw. +270 is good value for that.
Pick:
Arsenal / Tottenham Hotspur Draw (+270) 1.5 Units
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea
Chelsea travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace this Saturday. I have always said Selhurst has one of the better home field advantages in this league, so it won’t be an easy test for Chelsea. Palace are a team I liked heading into this season, and it’s been a little bland through sixth matches. 6 points picked up across 6 games you might say isn’t great. The competition has been pretty tough however, having to play Arsenal, Liverpool, and Man City.
Villa was an easier game, but also had Newcastle away and a plucky Brentford. I think as they play more bottom half teams, we should see Palace pick up more wins. My favorite with them is as a dog though, and we get that again Saturday. Palace rank 16th in NPxGD, which isn’t great, but it’s not that far off Chelsea’s 12th place ranking. The Blues obviously have a new manager in Graham Potter, and so we could see a bounce potentially. I think this could take his some time to get his best XI in order. Chelsea will also be without Edouard Mendy in goal, so Kepa will get another start. Away to Selhurst is not an easy win for most opponents, and I expect Palace to be good for a result here.
Pick:
Crystal Palace +0.5 (-106) 1.5 Units
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
The next game I see value on is in London, as West Ham take on Wolves. West Ham have had a tough start to the season, as they sit in 18th on 4 points! One spot below Wolves, who have also struggled mightily. We are only through 7 matches, so I’m not hitting the alarm bell just yet. Coming into the season I thought West Ham would be top 8 contenders like they have been each of the last few seasons. Wolves I thought could be fighting to stave off relegation.
This feels like a good spot for West Ham to get off the schneid at home. Most of this also comes down to the price. -105 at home on the moneyline just feels like good value for a team I rate a good deal higher. Advanced metric wise these two are pretty close, sitting at 10th and 11th. The step back has been the Hammers attack, generating only 0.9 NPxG/90 this season. That compares to 1.3 last season. Michail Antonio and Jared Bowen need to find 2nd gear, so it’s not without concern. I just think it’s a good price at home against an inferior opponent.
Pick:
West Ham Moneyline (-105) 1.5 Units