Nascar Odds, Picks, & Predictions: AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway

Nascar heads to Kansas Speedway for the AdventHealth 400 this Sunday at 3 pm et. This is a 1.5-mile intermediate track that has been tire-friendly in the past. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is its closest comparable track with Michigan, although slightly larger, offering up similar track conditions. Qualifying position has played a major role in success here as eight of the last ten winners all started 10th or higher.

Previous Race Betting Recap

We’re back to seeing some green as the Goodyear 400 resulted in a 2-2 betting card. Tyler Reddick finished 2nd, and Kevin Harvick finished 4th cashing our Best Bet. Unfortunately,  backing favorite Kyle Larson bit us in the a$$ (who woulda guessed it, haha), as he only completed 112 laps. And, Denny Hamlin had more bad luck as he was in the wrong place, at the wrong time late in the race.

On to Kansas we go for what should be a fantastic race and one where we could see some surprising runs. Here is my AdventHealth 400 betting card with odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook.

Odds, Picks, & Best Bet – AdventHealth 400

Top 10 Finish: Austin Dillon +200

Dillon hasn’t been great at Kansas but has finished 11th or better in the last three races here. With both events in 2021 being 10th place finishes. As we mentioned in the lead-in, Las Vegas compares closest to Kansas, and Austin has finished 13th or better in five of his last six races in Sin-City. He has top 10’s in five of the last seven races ahead of this Sunday. And even more telling about his potential is that outside of the unpredictable Bristol Dirt and the three SS races, including Atlanta, his average finish on the season is 11th. This is such a fantastic number for a driver with tremendous top 10 potential and odds that should drop after qualifying.

Driver Matchup: Ross Chastain -116 Over Martin Truex Jr.

Martin Truex Jr. has the 2nd best avg. finish of 5.9 here over the last 10 races while Ross the Boss’ best career Cup Series finish at Kansas is 13th (last Fall). However it’s a new season, with a new Car, and clearly a new Ross. Chastain finished 3rd at Vegas this season with Truex Jr. crossing the finish line 8th. Party Marty has just two top 5’s all year and one in his last five events. This pales in comparison to Chastain, who has top 5’s in seven of the eight races where he didn’t crash this year. We’ve hit two straight driver matchups and as Lou Brown said in Major League II: “If we win one tomorrow, that’s called a winning streak”.

Outright: Christopher Bell +2000

I’m still waiting for the Bell to ring in victory lane but it’s coming, possibly this week. Two of his last three races at Kansas were top 10 finishes. Qualified on pole, and even after car problems, finished 10th in Las Vegas. As noted, qualifying here is extremely important and he qualified top 10 in both races last season. And he’s been a qualifying machine heading into Sunday, starting eight of the last ten races inside the top 10. Bell has seen his pre-qualifying odds drop at almost every venue this year, and I expect the same to happen this week. Sometimes the number is too good to pass on, especially for a driver with his potential.
*His top 10 number is currently +130 and that’s also a great value ahead of qualifying 

AdventHealth 400 Best Bet: Kevin Harvick Top 10 -120

I’m going back to well with the old man. He has four consecutive top 5’s at Kansas. Harvick’s worst finish here over the last 12 races is 13th. Since 2010 (23 races), he has had 16 top 10’s, 12 top 5’s, and has completed ALL but 1 lap! Was slow to adjust to the Next Gen car but ran decent at Vegas and finished 12th. KV is running hot heading into Sunday with three straight top 10s and an average finish of 8th outside of Bristol Dirt and the superspeedway races.

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*Featured Image credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images