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We faced a Lipski letdown last week on a card where the dogs were barking loudly. This week we head over to Salt Lake City, Utah for UFC 278 which features Champions, contenders, and rising stars. PPV events have shown much less variance as we’re typically getting high-level fighters with solid notes on them that give us better looks at paths to victory. Let’s dive into my favorite prop bet of the card.
Paulo Costa by KO (-150, Draftkings) Over Luke Rockhold
Former Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold returns after over three years off. With a 16-5 record, Luke has lost all five of his fights by knockout and with three of his last four fights ending in such a way, it’s clear that his chin just isn’t what it once was. His training style could have played a part in that as his camp was known for going full-go in sparring sessions which don’t help add years to your durability. He’s been here before, can grapple, and is likely the more skilled and well-rounded fighter between these two. He has the skill set to beat just about anyone but while a layoff can be great for the mind and body, you can expect to have some rust. Your striking and reaction take time to come back and no matter how much you train, it doesn’t fully prepare you for what you’ll face in real fight time.
Paulo Costa is an odd case. He had a quick start with the UFC, going 5-0 before earning a title shot. Devastating power, very crisp boxing, and the understanding that attacking the body is just as effective as head-hunting but with less resistance. When he fought Israel Adesanya for the Middleweight Championship, he was an absolute shell of himself and there were many things off. His weight cut was atrocious, and it looked like he didn’t care about the fight. That is a concern, but he looked fantastic on the scales this morning and seems to be ready to bring back the monster within him that got him to that title shot. Costa should come out very aggressive like he once did and the combination of his knockout power and Rockhold’s deteriorating chin makes for a big finish here. Holding a 13-2 record with 11 knockouts, I see number 12 on the horizon here for Costa.
For more UFC 278 bets, check out my article over at 4for4 where I break down 3 other fights for this Saturday.