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We’re back on this fine Tuesday with a full slate of MLB action. Yesterday’s slate was a rough one, just four games going across the league but we were still able to muster up a 1-1 record. The Orioles team total over 4.5 was never in doubt with a 14-run performance while Roansy Contreras pitched fine through 4.0 innings for the Pirates but didn’t stay in the game long enough to rack up the K’s. If you want to bet along with us today, sign up with any of our affiliates below and take advantage of their welcome bonus offers. Onto Brian and I’s Top MLB Prop Bets for September 27th.
See Yesterday’s MLB Prop Bets here
Top MLB Prop Bets for September 27th
NL East Parlay: Phillies ML, Mets ML, Braves ML (+236, Caesars)
I don’t love breaking out the favorites parlays too often, but this late in the season when so many teams aren’t playing for anything it’s tough to find some value. The Braves are the first team in action tonight visiting the Nationals. Atlanta rolled to an 8-0 win over the Nats on Monday.
Kyle Muller’s numbers don’t look great for the Braves through two starts, but that’s largely due to getting rocked in his first start. His most recent start he went 5.0 IP against the Marlins allowing just 2 ER and striking out 5. The Braves need wins headed into their showdown series with the Mets, so look for them to keep rolling here as part of our Top MLB Prop Bets for September 27th.
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Next, the Mets host the Marlins. Like mentioned above, the Mets and Braves are separated by just a game in the NL East and they play each other later this week. Both teams need to take care of business against lesser opponents which the Marlins very much are for the Mets. Carlos Carrasco is on the mound for the Mets and he’s been really good at Citi Field this season in addition to having a 3-0 record a and 2.10 ERA in 4 starts against Miami this season. I like backing the better team with something to play for in this one.
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Lastly, the Phillies visit the Cubs with their ace on the mound and holding just a 1.5 game lead over the Brewers in the NL Wild Card. The Brewers host the Cardinals, so it’s a chance for the Phillies to separate themselves from Milwaukee if the Cardinals want to keep their division rival out.
It’s a good pitching matchup at Wrigley tonight with Zack Wheeler going up against Marcus Stroman. Stroman has had a solid year for the Cubs, but he’s been a much worse pitcher at home this season. Through 10 home starts he’s 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA. Zack Wheeler hasn’t been as good on the road this year, but I trust the Phillies ace in a big game spot.
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Austin Riley RBI (+135, DraftKings)
Riley is putting together another stellar year for the Braves. He leads the team in WAR, HR, Slug %, OPS, and is 2nd or 3rd in BA, Hits, RBI, OBP, and runs scored. The power hitting righty has struggled a bit heading into tonight but a breakthrough evening might be on the cusp against Nats starter Paolo Espino.
Austin has crushed Paolo the last two seasons batting .438 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 16 ABs against the RHP. As a matter of fact, almost everyone on Atlanta has hit Espino well the last two years as he’s surrendered 35 hits, 7 HR, and 21 total runs, over 11 appearances spanning 32.1 innings. The bases should be full of Atlanta runners tonight, and with a prime spot in the order, Riley should see plenty of opportunities to knock in a run. I’m adding him to our Top MLB Prop Bets for September 27th with confidence.
Aaron Judge HR (+196 boosted odds to +270!!!, FanDuel)
He’s been stuck at 60 for six games and watching the games, you can see a little stress creeping trying to get number 61. Tonight is a perfect opportunity to jump back on the Judge HR prop train if you even left. He’s facing a pitcher he’s already homered against this year, and MLB’s easiest starter to go deep off.
Judge is just 1-for-8 off Berrios in 2022 but has a lifetime .333 average against him, and is mired in his third longest homerless drought of the season leading me to believe he’s more than due for a longball. He’s so due for a HR, I’d even shop for 2+ HR props and sprinkle a little on that especially hearing Barry Bonds say he thinks Aaron will explode after finally getting no. 61. I liked his number at +196 but boosted up to +270 it’s a MUST ADD to our Top MLB Prop Bets for September 27th.
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