Another night of playoff baseball in the books, and another profitable betting night for the Betsperts baseball crew! Jose Altuve’s slump unfortunately continued so that bet didn’t hit, but the Astros were able to cover the -1.5 run line and hit the juicy +125 odds giving us a 1-1 night with a plus money winner. Just one game tonight as the NLCS takes a travel day back to Philly while the Yankees and Astros get set for Game 2 of the ALCS. If you want to play along with us, sign up with any of our affiliates below and cash in on their welcome bonuses. Here are Matt & Brian‘s Top MLB Prop Bets for October 20th.
Top MLB Prop Bets for October 20th
Framber Valdez o4.5 Strikeouts (-155, BetMGM) & o5.5 Strikeouts (+120, PointsBet)
For whatever reason, the number of strikeouts and odds really varied across sportsbooks, so I wanted to roll the dice and take it two different ways. Of the 4.5 strikeout totals, BetMGM had the best odds at -155. PointsBet was the only book with the over at 5.5, but a few others had 6+ Alt Strikeout lines, and PointsBet’s number was the best. Valdez has been phenomenal for the Astros all season, and he was solid in his one postseason start against Seattle going 5.2 Innings with 2 ER and 6 strikeouts.
10 of Valdez’s last 11 home starts have seen him hit that 6+ strikeout mark, and 12 of his last 14 starts overall have gotten there as well. The Yankees have a potent lineup obviously, but they are one that’s been susceptible to the strikeout at times. They finished 13th in the MLB in team strikeouts for the regular season and are averaging over 11 strikeouts per game as a team in the postseason; the highest strikeout per game rate of the 4 teams left.
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Runs (+100, DraftKings) & HR (+350, Caesars)
Say what you will about Judge’s poor average thus far in 2022 MLB Playoffs but the guy is still finding ways to produce offense for his team. Through six games, He’s recorded just 4 hits, 2 being HRs, but has crossed home plate 4 times and in four different games. The presumtive AL MVP will need to produce tonight to try and steal home-field from Houston and I expect him to do so.
Judge and Yanks conjured up just 2 runs on 5 hits in game 1 but get Framber Valdez who has struggled a bit heading into tonight surrendering 6+ runs in two of his last three starts and a guy who hasn’t exactly been the greatest postseason pitcher either. In nine career postseason starts (2020-current) Framber has a 4.87 ERA, .264 BAA, .346 OBPA, and a .473 SLGA. He’s allowed 3+ runs in four of his last last six games and has gone past the 5th inning on just two of those occasions.
All in all, Valdez is a tremendous pitcher who had a great year but does give up a lot of hits/baserunners, and has been susseptable to the HR in the postseason, giving up 6 dingers over his last five outings. Aaron Judge is always a threat to go deep and batting in the 2 hole places him in prime position to score a run. Both of these numbers are too tasty not to add to our Top MLB Prop Bets for October 20th.
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