MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks for August 17th

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What goes up must come down. After a 3-0 Tuesday, it was just a 1-2 record yesterday. Justin Steele was sharp for the Cubs and Patrick Corbin wasn’t so we got our Cubs 1st Half result. The Sox & Astros would have cruised to the 1st Half under 3.5 and been right there for the under 2.5 had the Sox not been starting one of the worst corner outfield lineups in terms of defense in MLB history. Andrew Vaughn saw what should have been an inning-ending flyout to the wall instead go off his glove opening the door for two Houston runs. Then a dagger HR from Jose Altuve in the 5th doomed the bet. But we’re on to Wednesday. We have a bunch of day baseball today, so get your bets in early. I’ll be on BetMGM for my odds tonight. If you haven’t signed up with them yet you can do so below and get a risk-free bet up to $1000 on your initial wager. Onto the bets.

Phillies -1.5 (+105) & 1st Half Result (-105) vs Reds

The Phillies are playing some really good baseball as of late, the Reds are playing some really bad baseball. Let’s bet on the good baseball team. Sometimes it’s better to not overthink things. Ranger Suarez is on the mound for Philly, they certainly have the pitching advantage over Cincinnati and Nick Lodolo. Were unlikely to see Kyle Schwarber back in the lineup for the Phillies yet, but Bryson Stott has filled in pretty admirably for him at the top of the order. The Phillies seemed to break out of a mini-slump last night with 11 runs, let’s back them again on a quick turnaround.

Mets 1st Half Result (-125) vs Braves

After dropping 4 of 5 at Citi Field earlier this month, the Braves have held serve at home thus far in the rematch taking the first two games of a four-game set. Now, though, comes the hard part. Max Scherzer throws today for the Mets and Jacob DeGrom throws tomorrow. Similar to the Sandy Alcantara strategy we’ve been using, we’re going to back Scherzer in the 1st Half. He’s the definition of a big game pitcher and the guy you want on the mound with your back against the wall. I’ll happily back the Mets early with Scherzer on the mound, then likely do the same tomorrow with DeGrom on the hill.

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White Sox 1st Half Result (+190) vs Astros

Ok, so the 1st Half ML is probably safer at +136, I’ll just say that off the bat. But the White Sox have some renewed fire the last week or so winning 5 in a row including back-to-back late comeback wins vs Houston. Framber Valdez has been quite good for Houston this season, and the Sox bats haven’t been quite as good against lefties as they were in 2020 & 2021, but the bats seem to be turning a bit of a corner and a lefty might be the recipe for a breakout. Michael Kopech hasn’t been as dominant in the 2nd Half, but he seems to have powered through his slump and is turning a corner. He was solid against Houston earlier this season. Let’s roll the dice on a nice juicy +190 line here.

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Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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