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Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
Newcastle welcome Bournemouth to Saint James’ Park Saturday morning. With matches resuming after a short break, I expect the matches this weekend to be fairly lively. In this one we have an up and coming Newcastle side, who hope to jump inside the top 8, if not the top 6. The significant investment from their new ownership is the primary reason for that. I have been relatively pleased with their start to the season, even though they are just 11th in the table. In their first 6 matches, 2 of them were against Manchester City and Liverpool. On top of that, their NPxGD is actually 9th. My analysis here is that if we compare against most of the league, the Magpies are an above average side. They should beat bottom 6 sides fairly comfortable, and grab draws off of the top teams outside of City and Liverpool. It’s a small sample, but excluding those 2 matches, Newcastle have a +.75 xG differential against the likes of Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Wolves, and Crystal Palace. Two above average sides and two bottom 6 sides. Point is, they should be beating teams like Bournemouth at home.
The Cherries on the other hand have had a tough start to the season, even if they sit 14th in the table. They took advantage of a buzzing crowd in their first home fixture in the Premier League, to beat a pretty bad Villa side. Their other win came away to Forest, another struggling promoted side, in a game they didn’t deserve to win. They rank last in NPxGD, with -1.4/90 minutes. Really bad underlying numbers. They did sack Scott Parker, and saw a response in the Forest win from it. However, I find it hard to believe this will last. I think Bournemouth will finish bottom, and will continue to really struggle against above average competition. They have lost by a combined score of 16-0 against Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. Newcastle are none of them, but are in the next tier below. I see a fairly easy 2-0 3-0 here for the home side.
Pick:
Newcastle Moneyline / Under 3.5 Parlay (+119) 1.5 Units
Everton vs West Ham United
The next game I like takes place on Sunday. Keep in mind this is an abbreviated card, with three matches postponed. Everton are a side I was down on coming into the season. A club with great tradition that barely escaped relegation last season. On top of that, really just didn’t add enough in the transfer window for me to feel optimistic. 17th so far, sitting on 4 points through 6 matches. This team loves to draw, sharing the spoils in 4 of 6. They also have gone under the total of 5 of 6 matches. This is fairly self explanatory, as they lost Richarlison to Tottenham and Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been out with injury. Anthony Gordon is one of the few bright spots in attack. I’ve had success playing their unders for this reason. Everton are 15th in NPxGD, so a touch better than where they are thus far. Without DCL, I see them to continue to struggle. He may play Sunday, so watch out for that news before making bets.
The Hammers have had a really bad start for their standards. 18th in the table, stuck on 4 points as well. I don’t think West Ham will stay here, and the metrics would agree somewhat. They come in at 12th in NPxGD. We still need a greater sample size, but we have to go off something. One area of concern is the drop off of striker Michail Antonio, who has only generated 1.3 xG across 6 matches. For reference, Anthony Gordon has put up 1.7 xG, and he’s not even Everton’s #9. They did bring in Italian striker Gianluca Scamacca, who should help things in the long run. Remains to be seen in the short run. They are also competing in the Europa Conference League on Thursdays, where they are putting up better numbers. 3-1 and 3-2 wins in the Group stage are positive signs for the Hammers, but this also might fatigue them. They don’t have a super deep squad, so it could take it’s toll over in the Premier League fixtures. This is a draw and under play for me. Everton love a low scoring draw this season, as their attack has yet to score more than once. West Ham have an attack, but it hasn’t shown up yet in domestic play. They also may show fatigue after playing midweek. That’s the look for me.