After a fun debut to the new Wild Card format the Division Series round is upon us and we have all four Game 1’s getting started today. We have four really intriguing matchups with three division rivalries getting underway: the Phillies and Braves, Mariners and Astros, and the Padres and Dodgers to go along with a Guardians and Yankees matchup of two polar opposite teams. Playoff baseball is a ton of fun to bet on, and there’s plenty of value to be had today. If you want to bet along with us, sign up with any of our affiliates below and take advantage of their sign-up offers. Onto Matt and I’s Top MLB Prop Bets for October 11th.
Top MLB Prop Bets for October 11th
Max Fried 5+ Ks & Braves Win (+120, FanDuel)
I think this Braves and Phillies series should be a really fun one, but Game 1 really sets up well for the Braves. Thanks to the luxury of not having to play a Wild Card series, Atlanta gets to throw their ace in Max Fried while Philadelphia throws their third starter in Ranger Suarez.
Fried has started against the Phillies four times this season and has recorded 5+ Ks in three of those four outings. The only time he didn’t hit that 5 strikeout mark, he finished his night with 4 Ks. Suarez has had good outings in each of his last two outings against the Braves, so this one might be on the lower-scoring side. Let’s ride with the defending champs and their ace to get the job done in Game 1 at home.
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Astros -1.5 (+105, BetMGM) vs Mariners
I can’t wait for this series, I really think it should be a lot of fun. On one side you have the up-and-coming Mariners who are in the playoffs for the first time in forever coming off an exciting Wild Card series win over the Blue Jays. On the other, you have the mainstay Houston Astros who are the toughest of outs in the playoffs each season.
I think Game 1 is a really tough matchup for Seattle with a young pitcher in Logan Gilbert making his first playoff start going up against the soon-to-be AL Cy Young winner in Justin Verlander and a relentless Astros lineup. Before it’s all said and done this series the Mariners will make their presence felt, but Game 1 is too favorable of a matchup for Houston to pass up.
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Logan Gilbert Over 3.5 K’s (-135, PointsBet)
This number is embarrassingly low in my opinion. I understand the Astros rolled through the AL this season finishing with the best record and the 2nd fewest strikeouts all year, but they struggled against Gilbert in 2022. Logan started 4 games against the ‘Stros and pitched to a 2.52 ERA, striking out 22 batters in 25 innings.
He went 6+ innings in all four starts and had 5+ K’s in three of the four starts versus Houston. In addition to pitching well against the Astros, Logan comes into today’s game having allowed more than 1 run in ONE of his last six starts and having gone over this prop in FIVE of those six.
It’s only game one and Seattle will not want to tax their bullpen this early in the series so I like Gilbert to last long enough to hit this over. I’m more than happy to add this to our Top MLB Prop Bets for October 11th.
Padres F5 +.5 (+126, FanDuel)
Is there anyone playing better than or with more confidence than the Padres right now?! They just took down what many believed to be the best pitching staff in the NL and now get to try and exact revenge on their bitter rival Dodgers. LA has had a few days off while San Diego is already entrenched in the intensity of playoff baseball and I think that’ll work in their favor tonight early.
Neither lineup has much success against tonight’s starting pitchers but the Pads saw Julio Urias THREE times over the last month of baseball and hopefully have enough video to break through enough to help us cash this first 5 bet. I think this could be a very entertaining series and have to pull for my hometown team in San Diego. Although they may still lose the game, I envision a tightly contested low-scoring affair in game one of this divisional series which is why this made the card as one of our Top MLB Prop Bets for October 11th.
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