We’ve reached the end of the first month of the season, as far as Heisman candidates go and here is where the Heisman odds stand as we turn the calendar to October.
Heisman Trophy Odds
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Heisman Trophy Risers
Josh Heupel turned the Tennessee program around quickly, but the Volunteers still have to show the world they can beat their primary rivals Florida, Alabama and Georgia, all of whom have dominated Tennesse over the past 15 years or so. Check Florida off the list following Tennesssee’s 38-33 win over the Gators on Saturday. Tennessee was able to get their second win over the Gators in their last 16 tries thanks largely to Hendon Hooker who was sensational. Hooker completed 22 of 28 passes for 349 yards and two touchdowns while adding 112 yards and another score on the ground.
Hooker is on pace for over 4,000 total yards and 30 touchdowns this year. If he can hit that mark and help Tennessee pull off an upset over Alabama or Georgia he has a shot to win the award, but that’s still going to be a tall task. Tennessee has the week off before a tricky road game at LSU. They follow that up with the Alabama game as they seek to beat the Tide for the first time since 2006, the year before Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa.
The bookmakers are starting to give Kansas the respect they deserve even if the poll voters don’t. Kansas is 4-0 and Daniels is on pace for a 3,500 yard, 40 TD and now Daniels is sitting as the sixth favorite at all but one of the legal books. It’s a fun thought exercise trying to think what the worst record Kansas can have and Daniels still make it as a Heisman finalist. Lamar Jackson won the Heisman on a 9-3 Louisville team and since Kansas has been wretched for so long before this year, at 8-4 Daniels could make it to New York. It’s not entirely unreasonable that could happen, but it’s still pretty unlikely the Jayhawks will win enough for him to have a shot.
Heisman Trophy Teammate Swap
JJ McCarthy & Blake Corum
To bridge the risers and fallers we’re going to put the Michigan teammates together. Michigan struggled with Maryland more than people thought and McCarthy wasn’t bad, but Corum was the star rushing for 243 yards and two touchdowns. A Michigan player being in the conversation is more about the fact that the Wolverines are probably the fourth or fifth best team in the country and a VERY public team so they need a candidate and the books are starting to wise up to the fact that Corum is their best player on offense. McCarthy took some money when he became the Michigan starter, but Corum has surged past him at all the legal books except for BetRivers which is slow to move with the rest of the market.
Heisman Trophy Fallers
Williams is still very much alive in the race, and there’s an argument that he might actually have some value at this point, after USC escaped Corvallis with a 17-14 win over Oregon State. Williams had a miserable night going 16-36 for 180 yards and a touchdown, but the touchdown was a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter so they got the job done. It’s going to be a data point in his season that he’s going to have to make up at some point against a good team, but it didn’t kill his chances and most of America didn’t get to see it because the game aired on the Pac-12 Network
Gabriel was very good against Kansas State throwing for 330 yards and four touchdowns, but losing as a double-digit home favorite against the Wildcats is going to put a big stain on his Heisman resume. If the Sooners run the table and he puts up numbers like this, he has a chance to get back in the race, but his margin for error has dropped to zero and the Big 12 schedule has a bunch of tricky spots.