Another week in College Football down, and another week with the College Football Playoff odds remaining the same at the top. Week 2 saw a bunch of movement in the College Football Playoff races with some big time upsets occuring, but Week 3 saw things come a little bit back to the norm.
One of the big movers of the week was the Oregon Ducks. Oregon got blown out in Week 1 by National Championship favorite Georgia, but since then has won their next two games including a 41-20 win at home against #12 BYU. Oregon saw their odds move from +30000 after Week 2 to +15000 after Week 3. If Oregon can make a run through the PAC 12 and beat a Top 5 USC team in the PAC 12 championship game, they could see themselves in line for possible playoff bid.
#1 Georgia, #2 Alabama and #3 Ohio State all cruised in their Week 3 matchups. All three teams saw their National Championship odds stay just about the same. Georgia’s odds moved to +175 from +180 after dominating South Carolina in their conference opener. Alabama remained at +200 after a 63-7 win over UL Monroe and Ohio State stayed at +300 after cruising to a 77-21 win over Toledo.
There are a few games in Week 4 that could cause some line shifting next week. #11 Tennessee (3-0) faces their stiffest test of the season with #20 Florida (2-1) coming to town. A win for the Vols there should vault them into the Top 10. They should win that game, but Florida has been a bit of a boogeyman for them in this rivalry matchup.
A few other marquee matchups this weekend include #5 Clemson (3-0) at #21 Wake Forest (2-1), Maryland (3-0) at #4 Michigan (3-0), Kansas State (2-1) at #6 Oklahoma (3-0), #5 USC (3-0) at Oregon State (3-0) and #10 Arkansas (3-0) vs #23 Texas A&M (2-1) at a neutral site in Dallas.
College Football Playoff Odds: National Championship Winner
|Georgia +175||Alabama +200||Ohio State +300|
|USC +1200||Clemson +1200||Michigan +2500|
|Oklahoma +4000||Tennessee +6000||Penn State +6000|
|Utah +10000||Oklahoma State +10000||Mississippi +10000|
|Washington +10000||Kentucky +15000||Oregon +15000|
|Texas A&M +15000||NC State +15000||Texas +15000|
|Iowa State +20000||North Carolina +20000||Florida State +20000|
|UCLA +20000||Washington State +20000||Minnesota +20000|
|Arkansas +25000||Wake Forest +25000||LSU +25000|
|Wisconsin +25000||TCU +25000||Syracuse +25000|
|Florida +25000||California +25000||Miami Florida +30000|
|Oregon State +30000||Michigan State +30000||Maryland +30000|
|Purdue +40000||Baylor +40000||Kansas +50000|
National Championship Value Bets
I think my favorite value bet on the board this week is Oklahoma at +4000. The Sooners went into the Nebraska game last week 2-0, but with a good amount of questions to be answered. Then they went into Lincoln and left no doubt how high their ceiling is. The Sooners blew the doors off a bad Nebraska team, but did so in a different way than they did under Lincoln Riley. The Brent Venables Oklahoma team plays fast and physical on defense and they’re multi-dimensional on offense. They have a Quarterback in Dillon Gabriel who has Heisman finalist potential.
The Sooners looked like the best team in the Big 12 last week. If they run the table in what’s been a very solid Big 12 this year, they’ll find themselves in the College Football Playoff. Time will tell if they can compete with Georgia or Alabama, but they way they played Saturday gives them a chance.