Nascar Odds, Picks, & Best Bet: M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono

Bubba Wallace smiling before the Ambetter 301

The Cup Series is at “The Tricky Triangle” Pocono Raceway for this weekends M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400. The green flag drops Sunday at 3:00 pm et with Kyle Busch looking to find victory lane in Pocono for a second straight race and overall fifth time. While Chevrolet seeks just it’s second win here over the last 12 races. I headed back to Fanduel Sportsbook to shop all the current odds and found my favorite bets to make on the race. See my Ambetter 301 recap, and my M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 card and best bet below.

Ambetter 301 Betting Recap
Cole Custer Top 10 +850L
Ross Chastain to Win +1000L
Best Bet: Tyler Reddick Top 10 -135L

M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 at Pocono Betting Card

Top 10 Finish: Erik Jones +200

Erik Jones is one of the most frustrating drivers to bet in Nascar. He’s shown plenty of speed and ability on track but if he’s not finishing inside the top 10 he’s normally wrecking or making a mistake that costs him a good finish. That said, he’s been racing well, and has a nice history at Pocono and the similar tracks of Michigan and Auto Club.

  • Top 10 finish in six of the previous eight races in Pocono prior to last season.
  • Avg. finish of 14th over his 14 career Cup Series races at similar tracks Michigan & Auto Club
  • Started 2nd, 2nd in both stages 1 & 2, led 18 laps, had the top speed rankings, ultimately finished 3rd at Auto Club this season
  • Three 11th or better finishes over the last six races heading into Sunday

Driver Matchup: Daniel Suarez -112 Over Chase Briscoe

Trackhouse Racing and Daniel Suarez have surprised many this season with him winning a race, having four top 5, and eight top 10 finishes so far. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe also has a win and three top 5 finishes but only four total top 10’s on the season. Suarez is currently the hotter driver and should in my opinion be a bigger favorite over Briscoe than what these odds indicate.

  • Suarez finished ahead of Briscoe in both Pocono races last season
  • Suarez finished 12 spots ahead of Briscoe at Auto Club earlier this year
  • Brisoce’s best finish over last six races is 13th
  • Suarez has finished four of the last six inside the top 10
  • Suarez has finished ahead of Bricoe in all six of those and in nine of the last twelve races

Outright: William Byron +1200

Willy B is one of five drivers with two wins so far in 2022 but hasn’t finished any of the last twelve races better than 9th. That said, he’s actually led the 2nd most laps and has run 74.9% of his laps inside the top 15 (6th best). The value is on Byron to finish well and his history at Pocono and similar tracks below are a huge reason why.

  • Led 13+ laps, was the 4th fastest car, and finished 3rd/12th at Pocono last year
  • Five top 10’s and a low finish of 18th during his eight Cup Series races at Pocono
  • Led 16 laps, finished top 10 in stages 1 & 2, & was the 2nd fastest car at Auto Club this year prior to wrecking
  • He only has five top 10’s all year but four of them were top 5 so when he’s good, he’s really good

M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Best Bet: Bubba Wallace Top 10 +120

Bubba is kind of a jekyll & Hyde driver who simply needs to avoid trouble in order to showcase his driving ability. This is best highlighted by the fact that over the last ten races, he’s avoided trouble in six of those and finished 16th or better in five of those races. He looked good in his first season with 23/11 at Pocono last year, and enters this Sunday driving as good as we’ve ever seen from him. 

  • Finished 14th and 5th on “The Tricky Triangle” last season
  • Top 10 finishes in the last two races at Indianapolis
  • Improved from mid 20’s to top 20 finishes at Michigan and Auto Club the last times at those tracks
  • Finishes of 14th or better in three of his last four races including a 3rd place run last weekend in New Hampshire
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Featured Image credit: James Gilbert/Getty Images

WRITTEN BY

Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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