Commanders vs Vikings Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 9 – November 2022

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A streak will end for one team when the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) and Washington Commanders (4-4) meet on November 6, 2022, as both clubs are riding winning streaks. The Vikings have secured five games in a row, while the Commanders have accumulated three straight victories.

Vikings vs. Commanders Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing the Vikings as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Vikings have -165 odds to pick up the win, while the Commanders are listed at +140 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 43.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Vikings vs. Commanders Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Landover, Maryland
  • Stadium: FedExField

Betting Preview

Vikings

Despite having a bottom-five defense that ranks fifth-worst in the NFL (383.1 yards allowed per game), the Vikings have put up better results on offense, ranking 15th in the NFL by totaling 345.7 yards per game. The Vikings are compiling 24.7 points per game on offense, which ranks them ninth in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 14th, giving up 20.6 points per game.

Despite having a bottom-five pass defense that ranks fourth-worst in the NFL (275.6 passing yards allowed per game), the Vikings have put up better results on offense, ranking 11th in the NFL by averaging 237.1 passing yards per game. The Vikings are averaging 108.6 rushing yards per game on offense this season (21st in NFL), and they are allowing 107.6 rushing yards per game (eighth) on defense.

The Vikings are putting up a 39.8% third-down percentage offensively this year (17th in NFL), and they are giving up a 34.9% third-down percentage (ninth) on the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings are surrendering 5.9 yards per play on the defensive side of the ball (26th in the NFL), while putting up 5.4 per play (15th in the league) on offense this season. The Vikings own the second-best turnover margin in the NFL at +6, forcing 13 turnovers (sixth in NFL) while turning it over seven times (third in NFL).

Commanders

The Commanders rank 22nd with 331.0 total yards per game on offense, and they rank 13th with 334.5 total yards ceded per contest on defense. The Commanders rank 27th in the NFL with 17.8 points per game on offense, and they rank 15th with 21.5 points ceded per game on the defensive side of the ball.

The Commanders rank 16th in the NFL with 226.6 passing yards per game on offense, and they rank 16th with 214.0 passing yards surrendered per game on defense. The Commanders are putting up 104.4 rushing yards per game on offense this season (24th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 120.5 rushing yards per contest (17th-ranked) on defense.

The Commanders’ third-down defense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank third-best in the NFL with a 31.0% third-down conversion percentage allowed. In terms of offense, they are compiling a 34.6% third-down rate, which ranks 25th. In terms of yards per play, the Commanders rank 26th in the NFL (5.0) and 16th on the other side of the ball (5.6 yards allowed per play). After forcing six turnovers (30th in NFL) and turning the ball over 10 times (15th in NFL) this season, the Commanders own the 26th-ranked turnover margin of -4.

Vikings vs. Commanders Injury Report

Vikings

Player Pos. Injury Status
Jalen Nailor WR Illness Out
Irvin Smith Jr. TE Ankle Out
Cameron Dantzler CB Neck Questionable

Commanders

Player Pos. Injury Status
J.D. McKissic RB Neck Out
Cole Holcomb LB Foot Out
David Mayo LB Hamstring Out
Shaka Toney DE Calf Questionable
Jahan Dotson WR Hamstring Out
Chase Young DE Acl Questionable

Vikings vs. Commanders Betting Analysis

Vikings Betting Insights

The Vikings have put together a record of 3-4-0 against the spread this season. In games they have played as 3-point favorites or more, the Vikings have an ATS record of 2-3.

Vikings games have gone over the total four times this season. The Vikings were favored on the moneyline eight total times last season. They finished 5-3 in those games.

When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -165 or shorter, the Vikings had a 4-2 record (winning 66.7% of their games).

Commanders Betting Insights

The Commanders are 4-4-0 against the spread this year. The Commanders have an ATS record of 2-2 when playing as at least 3-point underdogs.

Commanders games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under three times this season. The Commanders have entered the game as underdogs four times this season and won twice.

The Commanders have entered two games this season as the underdog by +140 or more and are 1-1 in those contests.

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Vikings vs. Commanders Against The Spread & Betting Records

Vikings

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46.5 47.5 45.2
Implied Total AVG 25.4 26.3 24.3
ATS Record 3-4-0 2-2-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 4-3-0 3-1-0 1-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-0 4-0 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1

Commanders

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.9 43.9 42.0
Implied Total AVG 23.0 23.8 22.3
ATS Record 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 1-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-2 1-1 1-1

Players to Watch

Vikings

  • Kirk Cousins has 1,734 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions this year. He has completed 66.3% of his attempts, averaging 247.7 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.
  • To go along with his passing statistics, Cousins has 40 rushing yards (third on the Vikings), with two rushing touchdowns.
  • Dalvin Cook‘s rushing output this season includes 561 yards (10th in the NFL) and five TDs. He’s averaging 80.1 yards per game and 4.9 per attempt (22nd in the NFL).
  • Cook’s 22 targets through the air have resulted in 17 catches (2.4 per game) for 110 yards (15.7 per game) and zero touchdowns.
  • In the passing game, Justin Jefferson, has racked up 752 receiving yards (third in the NFL) and two touchdowns after hauling in 52 balls (fifth in the NFL) on 71 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 107.4 yards and 7.4 receptions in seven games.
  • T.J. Hockenson averages 3.7 receptions and 56.4 yards per game, and has 395 total receiving yards and 26 catches. He’s gotten 43 total targets, and has caught three touchdown passes.
  • Over on the defensive side, Jordan Hicks has 62 tackles, 2.0 sacks, and one interception in 2022.
  • Za’Darius Smith has 21 tackles, 11.0 TFL, and 7.5 sacks this season.
  • This season, Harrison Smith has recorded 40 tackles and three interceptions.
  • Danielle Hunter has 30 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and two passes defended.

Commanders

  • Antonio Gibson averages 36.5 rushing yards per game this year (292 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
  • On top of his impact in the run game, Gibson has caught 29 passes (on 35 targets) for 228 yards (third on the Commanders), with two receiving touchdowns. He’s averaging 28.5 yards per game.
  • Terry McLaurin has put together a 2022 stat sheet that includes 33 catches for 553 yards (10th in the NFL) and two receiving touchdowns over eight games played. He has been on the receiving end of 53 targets and is averaging 4.1 receptions per game.
  • Through eight games played this season, Curtis Samuel has 42 catches (5.3 receptions per game on 7.8 targets per game) for 390 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
  • Jahan Dotson has 12 catches for 152 yards and four receiving touchdowns (10th in the NFL). He averages 3.0 yards per game in four games and has been targeted 22 times.
  • So far in 2022, Jonathan Allen has recorded 3.5 sacks to go with 7.0 TFL, 31 tackles, and one interception over eight games.
  • Cole Holcomb’s stat sheet includes 68 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one pass defended.
  • Montez Sweat has 26 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and two passes defended in the 2022 season.
  • Da’Ron Payne has totaled 4.5 sacks (first on the Commanders) to go with 5.0 TFL and 29 tackles through seven games.

Vikings vs. Commanders Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Vikings, and we project that Vikings will cover the spread (Vikings -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 43.5 points.

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How to Bet on Vikings vs. Commanders

You can bet on Vikings vs. Commanders at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Vikings vs. Commanders picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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