Bills vs Vikings Prediction: Week 10 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – November 2022

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In a bout between two division leaders, the Buffalo Bills (6-2), the top-ranked team in the AFC East, host the No. 1 team from the NFC North, the Minnesota Vikings (7-1), at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, November 13, 2022.

Bills vs. Vikings Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 6.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -260 odds to pick up the win, while the Vikings are listed at +220 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 44.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Vikings Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 13, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview

Bills

The Bills have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both total offense (best with 416.4 yards per game) and total defense (fourth-best with 299.6 yards allowed per game) this season. The Bills have been shining on both sides of the ball, ranking third-best in scoring offense (27.5 points per game) and best in scoring defense (14.8 points allowed per game).

The Bills rank seventh in pass defense this season (194.8 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking third-best in the NFL with 292.1 passing yards per game. The Bills are averaging 124.3 rushing yards per game offensively this year (13th in NFL), and they are surrendering 104.9 rushing yards per game (sixth) on the defensive side of the ball.

On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking best in the NFL by putting up a 52.2% third-down conversion rate. They rank 17th on defense (40.2% third-down percentage allowed). The Bills rank sixth in yards per play allowed this year (5.0), but they’ve been playing really well on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 6.5 yards per play. The Bills rank 13th in the league with a +1 turnover margin after forcing 15 turnovers (fourth in the NFL) and committing 14 (28th in the NFL).

Vikings

With 340.1 total yards per game on offense, the Vikings rank 15th in the NFL in 2022. On defense, they rank 26th, allowing 368.1 total yards per game. The Vikings rank eighth in the NFL with 24.1 points per contest on offense, and they rank 12th with 20.1 points ceded per contest on the defensive side of the ball.

From an offensive angle, the Vikings are accumulating 238.1 passing yards per contest (10th-ranked). They rank 27th in the NFL defensively (256.9 passing yards given up per game). The Vikings rank 24th in the NFL with 102.0 rushing yards per game on offense, and they rank ninth with 111.3 rushing yards allowed per contest on the defensive side of the ball.

With a 40.4% third-down conversion rate on offense, the Vikings rank 16th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank eighth, giving up a 34.4% third-down rate. With 5.3 yards per play on offense, the Vikings rank 17th in the NFL. On defense they rank 22nd, allowing 5.7 yards per play. The Vikings have accumulated 14 forced turnovers this season and have turned it over eight times, resulting in a +6 turnover margin, which ranks third-best in the NFL.

Bills vs. Vikings Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Josh Allen QB Elbow Questionable
Tremaine Edmunds LB Groin Questionable
Gregory Rousseau DE Ankle Out
Kaiir Elam CB Ankle Doubtful

Vikings

Player Pos. Injury Status
Cameron Dantzler CB Ankle Out
Ben Ellefson TE Groin Questionable

Bills vs. Vikings Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills have put together a record of 4-4-0 against the spread this season. The Bills have an ATS record of 2-2 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites.

This season, Bills games have hit the over once. The Bills finished with a 9-5 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 64.3% of those games).

The Bills went 8-4 last year (winning 66.7% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -260 or shorter.

Vikings Betting Insights

The Vikings have covered the spread three times this season (3-5-0).

This year, four Vikings games have gone over the point total. The Vikings lost the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season.

The Vikings have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +220 odds on them winning this game.

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Bills vs. Vikings Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.5 46.3 51.4
Implied Total AVG 28.4 29.3 27.8
ATS Record 4-4-0 2-1-0 2-3-0
Over/Under Record 1-7-0 1-2-0 0-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-2 3-0 3-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Vikings

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46.1 47.5 44.6
Implied Total AVG 25.1 26.3 24.0
ATS Record 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0
Over/Under Record 4-4-0 3-1-0 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-0 4-0 3-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-1 0-0 0-1

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 2,403 yards (fourth in the NFL), 19 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and eight interceptions this year. He is averaging 300.4 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt, while completing 64.1% of his passes.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Allen also has 392 rushing yards (first on the Bills), with four rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs‘ 857 receiving yards this season (third in the NFL) have come from 82 targets and 60 receptions (third in the NFL). He’s averaging 107.1 receiving yards and 7.5 catches per game, with seven receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL).
  • Through seven games played, Gabriel Davis is averaging 64.4 yards and 2.6 receptions per game to total 451 receiving yards and 18 catches. He’s been targeted 38 times, and has four receiving touchdowns.
  • In the running game, Devin Singletary averages 4.4 yards per attempt (30th in the NFL) and 43.4 yards per game for 347 total rushing yards. He is still looking for his first rushing TD of the season.
  • Singletary has been targeted 36 times and turned those targets into 27 catches, 207 yards and one TD.
  • On defense for the Bills, Tremaine Edmunds has racked up 63 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack in 2022.
  • Matt Milano has 37 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and two interceptions this season. He’s fourth on the Bills in tackles.
  • Von Miller has totaled 16 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 7.0 sacks this year.
  • Damar Hamlin has 49 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks.

Vikings

  • Through eight games played this year, Kirk Cousins has amassed 1,999 passing yards, while throwing 13 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) against six interceptions and completing 64.8% of his attempts.
  • Cousins has also rushed for two touchdowns and 38 yards (third on the Vikings).
  • Justin Jefferson has 867 receiving yards (second in the NFL) and three touchdowns on 59 receptions (fifth in the NFL), while being targeted 84 times.
  • Dalvin Cook is averaging 76.0 rushing yards per game this season (608 total yards to rank 10th in the NFL), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
  • In addition to his ground game, Cook has pulled down 19 passes (on 28 targets) for 119 yards (sixth on the Vikings), with one receiving touchdown. He averages 14.9 yards per game.
  • T.J. Hockenson has 35 catches for 465 yards and three receiving touchdowns. He averages 4.4 yards per game through eight games and has been targeted 52 times.
  • So far in 2022, Jordan Hicks has put up 2.0 sacks to go with 74 tackles and one interception through eight games.
  • Za’Darius Smith has 26 tackles, 11.0 TFL, and 7.5 sacks.
  • Danielle Hunter has 37 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 6.0 sacks in the 2022 campaign. He is fifth on the Vikings in tackles.
  • Eric Kendricks has totaled 4.0 TFL and 65 tackles over eight games.

Bills vs. Vikings Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Bills, and we expect that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -6.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 44.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Vikings

You can bet on Bills vs. Vikings at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Vikings picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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