Dolphins vs. Texans Prediction: Week 12 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – November 27, 2022

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The Houston Texans (1-8-1), who are in the middle of a five-game losing streak, enter into a contest against the Miami Dolphins (7-3) on Sunday, November 27, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Dolphins vs. Texans Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 14 points, with bookmakers listing the Dolphins as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Dolphins have -850 odds to pick up the win, while the Texans are listed at +600 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 47 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Texans Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 27, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium

Betting Preview

Dolphins

The Dolphins sport the 21st-ranked defense this year (356.7 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking third-best with 391.5 yards per game. The Dolphins are compiling 25.2 points per game on offense, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 22nd, allowing 24.1 points per contest.

The Dolphins rank 22nd in pass defense this season (239.8 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 293.8 passing yards per game. The Dolphins are averaging 97.7 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 27th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 17th, allowing 116.9 rushing yards per game.

The Dolphins are putting up a 42.6% third-down percentage on offense, which ranks them 11th in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 26th, surrendering a 44.4% third-down percentage. The Dolphins rank 20th in yards per play allowed this year (5.7), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 6.4 yards per play. The Dolphins have forced eight total turnovers (28th in NFL) this season and have turned it over 10 times (fourth in NFL) for a turnover margin of -2, 24th-ranked in the league.

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Texans

The Texans have plenty of room to improve, as they rank worst in total yards per game (285.9) and third-worst in total yards surrendered per game (389.6). The Texans rank third-worst in points per game (15.9), but they’ve been more effective defensively, ranking 18th in the NFL with 23.0 points allowed per contest.

The Texans rank 26th in the NFL with 192.2 passing yards per contest on offense, and they rank 14th with 210.7 passing yards allowed per contest on defense. In terms of rushing, this season has been ugly for the Texans on both sides of the ball, as they are compiling only 93.7 rushing yards per game (fourth-worst) and ceding 178.9 rushing yards per game (worst).

The Texans rank third-worst in third-down conversion percentage (29.4%), but they’ve been more productive defensively, ranking 16th in the NFL with a 40.3% third-down rate allowed. From an offensive perspective, the Texans are accumulating 4.9 yards per play (27th-ranked). They rank 22nd in the NFL on the other side of the ball (5.8 yards given up per play). After forcing 11 turnovers (21st in NFL) and turning the ball over 13 times (14th in NFL) this season, the Texans have the 24th-ranked turnover margin of -2.

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Dolphins vs. Texans Injury Report

Dolphins

Player Pos. Injury Status
Raheem Mostert RB Knee Doubtful

Texans

Player Pos. Injury Status
Derek Stingley Jr. DB Hamstring Out

Dolphins vs. Texans Betting Analysis

Dolphins Betting Insights

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The Dolphins have registered a 4-5-1 record against the spread this season.

This season, Dolphins games have hit the over five times. The Dolphins won five of the seven games they were favored on the moneyline last season (71.4%).

The Dolphins never played a game last season with moneyline odds of -850 or shorter.

Texans Betting Insights

The Texans have put together a 5-5-0 record against the spread this year. The Texans have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 14-point underdogs.

Texans games have gone over the total four times this year. The Texans have won one of the 10 games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

The Texans have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +600 odds on them winning this game.

Dolphins vs. Texans Against The Spread & Betting Records

Dolphins

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.5 47.7 47.3
Implied Total AVG 25.9 26.0 25.8
ATS Record 4-5-1 3-2-0 1-3-1
Over/Under Record 5-5-0 1-4-0 4-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-1 3-0 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-2 1-1 1-1

Texans

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.3 43.4 43.2
Implied Total AVG 25.1 25.2 25.0
ATS Record 5-5-0 2-3-0 3-2-0
Over/Under Record 4-6-0 2-3-0 2-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-0 0-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-8-1 0-4-1 1-4

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • Tua Tagovailoa has 2,265 passing yards through eight games this year, averaging 283.1 per game with a 71.0% completion percentage and 18 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) against three interceptions.
  • Tyreek Hill’s 1,148 receiving yards this season (second in the NFL) have come from 106 targets and 81 receptions (second in the NFL). He’s averaging 114.8 receiving yards and 8.1 catches per game, with four receiving touchdowns.
  • In the passing game, Jaylen Waddle, has racked up 878 receiving yards (fifth in the NFL) and six touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) after grabbing 51 balls on 74 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 87.8 yards and 5.1 receptions in 10 games.
  • In the running game, Jeff Wilson Jr. averages 5.4 yards per attempt (13th in the NFL) and 63.8 yards per game for 638 total rushing yards. He has scored three rushing touchdowns this season.
  • He has added 15 catches (on 21 targets) for 136 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 13.6 receiving yards and 1.5 receptions per game.
  • On defense, Jevon Holland has 1.5 sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) to go with 51 tackles and two interceptions in 2022.
  • Jerome Baker has 56 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks this season.
  • Christian Wilkins has totaled 53 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • This season, Bradley Chubb has 31 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 6.0 sacks.

Texans

  • Davis Mills has thrown for 2,144 yards this year, with 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He is completing 61.9% of his passes while averaging 214.4 yards per game and 6.5 per attempt.
  • Mills has also rushed for one touchdown and 38 yards (fourth on the Texans).
  • Dameon Pierce averages 78.0 rushing yards per game through 10 games (780 total yards to rank seventh in the NFL), while scoring three rushing touchdowns.
  • Pierce has also collected 135 receiving yards (13.5 per game) on 24 catches (2.4 per game). He’s been targeted 30 times and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • This season in 10 games, Eno Benjamin has churned out 299 rushing yards (second on the Texans) and scored two rushing touchdowns. He averages 29.9 yards per game and 4.3 per carry (37th in the NFL).
  • Benjamin has helped out in the receiving game, amassing 184 receiving yards (18.4 per game) on 24 catches (2.4 per game), while being targeted 33 times. He is seeking his first receiving touchdown.
  • Brandin Cooks has been targeted 66 times, resulting in 39 catches for 461 yards .
  • In 2022, Jonathan Owens has 90 tackles over 10 games.
  • Jalen Pitre has two interceptions on top of 70 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two passes defended.
  • Christian Kirksey has 1.0 sack (fourth on the Texans) in addition to his 3.0 TFL, 71 tackles, and one interception.
  • Jerry Hughes has totaled 8.0 sacks (first on the Texans) as well as 8.0 TFL, 25 tackles, and one interception.

Dolphins vs. Texans Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Dolphins, and we expect that Dolphins will cover the spread (Dolphins -14). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 47 points.

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How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Texans

You can bet on Dolphins vs. Texans at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Dolphins vs. Texans picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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