Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction: Week 18 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – January 7, 2023

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On Saturday, January 7, 2023, the Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) visit the Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) at Allegiant Stadium and will try to extend a four-game winning streak.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9 points, with sportsbooks listing the Chiefs as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -435 odds to pick up the win, while the Raiders are listed at +350 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 52.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Raiders Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, January 7, 2023
  • Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Location: Paradise, Nevada
  • Stadium: Allegiant Stadium

Betting Preview

Chiefs

The Chiefs rank 12th in total defense this season (331.3 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 417.7 total yards per game. The Chiefs sport the 20th-ranked defense this year (22.3 points allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking best with 29.1 points per game.

The Chiefs rank 18th in pass defense this season (223.5 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 305.1 passing yards per game. The Chiefs are totaling 112.6 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. Defensively, they rank ninth, allowing 107.8 rushing yards per contest.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by putting up a 48.4% third-down conversion rate. They rank seventh on defense (37.4% third-down conversion rate allowed). The Chiefs have the 10th-ranked defense this season in terms of yards per play (5.2 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking best with 6.4 yards per play. The Chiefs rank 26th in the league with a -5 turnover margin after forcing 18 turnovers (23rd in the NFL) while committing 23 (26th in the NFL).

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Raiders

With 357.1 total yards per game on offense, the Raiders rank 11th in the NFL in 2022. Defensively, they rank 26th, surrendering 366.7 total yards per game. The Raiders rank 12th in the NFL with 23.9 points per game on offense, and they rank 25th with 24.2 points surrendered per game on the defensive side of the ball.

The Raiders rank 11th in passing yards per game (234.6), but they’ve been less effective on the other side of the ball, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL with 246.8 passing yards conceded per contest. The Raiders are posting 122.5 rushing yards per game on offense this season (16th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are allowing 119.9 rushing yards per game (17th-ranked) on defense.

The Raiders are generating a 39.1% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (19th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering a 41.1% third-down rate (23rd-ranked) on defense. The Raiders rank seventh in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense, and they rank 24th with 5.7 yards given up per play on the defensive side of the ball. The Raiders have accumulated 13 forced turnovers (31st in NFL) and committed 19 turnovers (ninth in NFL) this season for a -6 turnover margin that ranks 27th in the NFL.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Injury Report

Chiefs

Player Pos. Injury Status
Mecole Hardman WR Pelvis Questionable
Skyy Moore WR Hand Out
L’Jarius Sneed CB Hip Questionable
Harrison Butker K Back Questionable
Cornell Powell WR Undisclosed Out

Raiders

Player Pos. Injury Status
Josh Jacobs RB Hip Questionable
Darien Butler LB Concussion Out

Chiefs vs. Raiders Betting Analysis

Chiefs Betting Insights

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The Chiefs have put together a 5-10-1 record against the spread this season. The Chiefs have an ATS record of 2-4-1 when playing as at least 9-point favorites.

Chiefs games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under eight times this season. The Chiefs went 12-5 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 70.6% of those games).

The Chiefs won all four games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -435 or shorter.

Raiders Betting Insights

The Raiders are 8-8-0 against the spread this year. The Raiders have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 9-point underdogs.

Raiders games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under eight times this season. This season, the Raiders have won two out of the six games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Raiders have played as an underdog of +350 or more once this season and lost that game.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Against The Spread & Betting Records

Chiefs

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.5 49.1 49.9
Implied Total AVG 28.6 29.3 27.9
ATS Record 5-10-1 2-5-1 3-5-0
Over/Under Record 8-8-0 2-6-0 6-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 12-2 7-0 5-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-1 1-0

Raiders

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46.0 45.9 46.1
Implied Total AVG 25.1 25.6 24.8
ATS Record 8-8-0 5-2-0 3-6-0
Over/Under Record 8-8-0 5-2-0 3-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-6 4-2 0-4
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-4 0-1 2-3

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes II ranks first in the NFL with 5,048 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 315.5 per game with a 67.0% completion percentage and 40 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against 12 interceptions.
  • He has also rushed for 329 yards (second on the Chiefs) and added four touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 20.6 rushing yards per game.
  • Travis Kelce‘s 1,300 receiving yards this season (eighth in the NFL) have come from 145 targets and 104 receptions (third in the NFL). He’s averaging 81.3 receiving yards and 6.5 catches per game, with 12 receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL).
  • Jerick McKinnon‘s output on the ground this season includes 285 yards and one TD. He’s averaging 17.8 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt.
  • McKinnon has been on the receiving end of 68 targets in the passing game and has 54 catches (3.4 per game) for 512 yards (32.0 per game) and eight TDs.
  • Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 766 yards, averaging 47.9 yards per game and scoring four touchdowns.
  • On the defensive side for the Chiefs, Nick Bolton has powered the unit with 163 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions in 2022.
  • Chris Jones has 13.0 sacks (fifth in the NFL) in addition to his 14.0 TFL and 39 tackles.
  • This season, Willie Gay Jr. has put up 2.5 sacks to go with his 9.0 TFL, 82 tackles, and one interception.
  • Juan Thornhill has 1.0 sack as well as 3.0 TFL, 64 tackles, and two interceptions on the year.

Raiders

  • Davante Adams has put up 1,443 receiving yards (third in the NFL) and 14 touchdowns (first in the NFL) on 95 receptions (10th in the NFL), while being targeted 171 times this season.
  • Mack Hollins has put together a 2022 stat sheet that includes 55 catches for 675 yards and four receiving touchdowns through 16 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 90 targets and is averaging 3.4 receptions per game.
  • In eight games played this season, Darren Waller has 26 catches (3.3 receptions per game on 4.6 targets per game) for 353 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
  • Foster Moreau has 32 catches for 410 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He averages 2.3 yards per game through 14 games and has been targeted 54 times.
  • Maxx Crosby has 83 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 11.5 sacks, and three passes defended in 2022.
  • Duron Harmon has two interceptions on top of 79 tackles and five passes defended.
  • Nate Hobbs has 71 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack in the 2022 campaign. He is fifth on the Raiders in tackles.
  • Amik Robertson’s stats include two interceptions as well as 35 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and eight passes defended in 16 games

Chiefs vs. Raiders Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Chiefs, and we expect that Raiders will cover the spread (Chiefs -9). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 52.5 points.

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How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Raiders

You can bet on Chiefs vs. Raiders at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Chiefs vs. Raiders picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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