Patriots vs Packers Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 4 – October 2022

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On Sunday, October 2, 2022, the New England Patriots (1-2) hit the road to take on the Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Lambeau Field.

Packers vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Packers as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Packers have -435 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +350 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 40 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Packers vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, October 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:25 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
  • Stadium: Lambeau Field

Betting Preview

Packers

The Packers are totaling 355.7 yards per game on offense (13th in NFL), and they rank sixth on defense with 302.7 yards allowed per game. The Packers rank 27th in scoring offense (16.0 points per game) and sixth in scoring defense (15.0 points allowed per game) this season. The Packers are averaging 228.7 passing yards per game on offense this season (19th in NFL), and they are allowing 189.3 passing yards per game (seventh) on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers are averaging 127.0 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them ninth in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 19th, surrendering 113.3 rushing yards per game. The Packers rank ninth in third-down percentage this year (42.4%), but they’ve been playing really well on defense, ranking best in the NFL with a 22.6% third-down conversion rate allowed. This season, the Packers are accumulating 5.7 yards per play (10th in the league), while allowing 5.6 per play on the defensive side of the ball (17th in the NFL). The Packers rank 24th in the NFL with a -2 turnover margin after forcing 3 turnovers (18th in the NFL) while committing five (19th in the NFL).

Patriots

From an offensive angle, the Patriots are generating 364.7 total yards per game (10th-ranked). They rank 10th in the NFL on defense (314.7 total yards surrendered per game). The Patriots are compiling 16.7 points per contest on offense this season (25th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 23.7 points per contest (22nd-ranked) on defense. From an offensive perspective, the Patriots are putting up 249.0 passing yards per game (12th-ranked). They rank eighth in the NFL defensively (200.0 passing yards surrendered per game). In terms of rushing, the Patriots rank 13th in the NFL on offense (115.7 rushing yards per game) and 20th on defense (114.7 rushing yards allowed per contest). In terms of third-down efficiency, the Patriots rank eighth in the NFL (42.9% third-down conversion percentage) and 27th defensively (47.5% third-down rate allowed). In terms of yards per play, the Patriots rank sixth in the NFL (6.0) and 15th on defense (5.4 yards allowed per play). The Patriots sport a bottom-five turnover margin this season, fourth-worst at -4.

Packers vs. Patriots Injury Report

Packers

Packers: CB Jaire Alexander: Questionable (Groin), OT Caleb Jones: Out (Illness), OT Yosuah Nijman: Questionable (Illness)

Patriots

Patriots: WR Jakobi Meyers: Out (Knee), FB Lawrence Guy: Out (Shoulder), QB Mac Jones: Out (Ankle), FB Yodny Cajuste: Out (Thumb), CB Jalen Mills: Questionable (Hamstring), LB Raekwon McMillan: Questionable (Thumb), DB Kyle Dugger: Questionable (Knee), DT Davon Godchaux: Questionable (Back), DB Adrian Phillips: Questionable (Ribs), FB Joshuah Bledsoe: Questionable (Groin)

Packers vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Packers Betting Insights

The Packers have gone 2-1-0 against the spread this season. The Packers are a perfect 1-0 ATS when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites. This season, Packers games have yet to hit the over once. The Packers won 10 of the 13 games they were the moneyline favorite last season (76.9%). The Packers won all three games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -435 or shorter.

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots have not covered the spread yet this season (0-2-1). This year, Patriots games have hit the over once. The Patriots have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Patriots have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +350 odds on them winning this game.

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Packers vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records

Packers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.5 42.0 44.3
Implied Total AVG 24.0 26.0 23.0
ATS Record 2-1-0 1-0-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 0-3-0 0-1-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 1-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-0 1-1

Patriots

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.7 45.0 43.0
Implied Total AVG 23.7 24.0 23.5
ATS Record 0-2-1 0-1-0 0-1-1
Over/Under Record 1-2-0 1-0-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 0-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-1 0-1

Players to Watch

Packers

  • On the ground, Aaron Jones averages 6.8 yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL) and 72.3 yards per game for 217 total rushing yards. He has recorded one rushing touchdown this season.
  • Jones has 12 targets, nine catches, 76 receiving yards and one TD through the air.
  • Aaron Rodgers has 684 passing yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions this year. He has completed 72.3% of his attempts, averaging 228.0 yards per game and 7.3 per attempt.
  • In three games, A.J. Dillon has picked up 138 yards on the ground, averaging 46.0 yards per game and scoring one touchdown.
  • Dillon has totaled eight catches on 12 targets for 58 yards, but he has not scored a receiving touchdown.
  • Romeo Doubs averages 4.7 receptions and 45.7 yards per game, and has 137 total receiving yards and 14 catches. He’s gotten 16 total targets, and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • Over on the defensive side, De’Vondre Campbell has 29 tackles and 1.0 TFL in 2022. His tackle total leads the Packers and is ninth in the NFL.
  • Rashan Gary has 3.0 sacks (eighth in the NFL) to go with 3.0 TFL and 12 tackles.
  • Quay Walker has collected 18 tackles this year. He’s second on the Packers in tackles.
  • Preston Smith has 2.0 sacks (second on the Packers) to go along with his 2.0 TFL and 10 tackles on the season.

Patriots

  • Mac Jones has thrown for 786 yards this year, with two touchdowns and five interceptions. He is completing 66.0% of his attempts while averaging 262.0 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.
  • On the ground, Mac Jones has added one rushing touchdown and 37 rushing yards (third on the Patriots).
  • Damien Harris has 160 rushing yards (leading the Patriots) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 53.3 yards per game and 4.6 per carry (21st in the NFL).
  • Harris has added six receptions (2.0 per game) for 31 yards (10.3 per game), without a receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted eight times in the passing game.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for one touchdown this year, and has totaled 145 rushing yards (48.3 per game and 5.0 per attempt).
  • In addition to his ground game, Stevenson has pulled down seven passes (on nine targets) for 34 yards (sixth on the Patriots). He averages 11.3 yards per game.
  • Nelson Agholor has 179 receiving yards and one touchdown from 11 receptions after getting 14 targets.
  • Deatrich Wise has 13 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks in 2022.
  • Jonathan Jones has 10 tackles and one interception.
  • Matthew Judon has 10 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one pass defended during the 2022 season.
  • Devin McCourty has totaled 17 tackles.

Packers vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Packers, and we predict that Packers will cover the spread (Packers -9.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 40 points.

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How to Bet on Packers vs. Patriots

You can bet on Packers vs. Patriots at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Packers vs. Patriots picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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