Patriots vs Commanders Prediction: Week 9 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – November 5, 2023

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Gillette Stadium is where the Washington Commanders (3-5) will match up against the New England Patriots (2-6) on Sunday, November 5, 2023.

Patriots vs. Commanders Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Patriots as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Patriots have -148 odds to pick up the win, while the Commanders are listed at +124 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 40.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Patriots vs. Commanders Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 5, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium

Betting Preview


The Patriots are totaling 284.8 yards per game on offense (26th in NFL), and they rank 10th defensively with 321.1 yards allowed per game. While the Patriots’ defense ranks 26th with 26 points allowed per game, they’ve been slightly less successful on offense, ranking second-worst (14.8 points per game).

On offense, the Patriots rank 20th in the NFL with 200.4 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 18th in passing yards allowed per contest (223.3). The Patriots rank fifth-worst in rushing offense (84.4 rushing yards per game), but they’ve played better on defense, ranking ninth with 97.9 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Patriots are putting up a 34% third-down conversion rate on offense, which ranks them 25th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 12th, giving up a 37.6% third-down percentage. The Patriots are allowing 4.9 yards per play on the defensive side of the ball (sixth in the NFL), while gaining 4.7 per play (26th in the league) on offense this season. The Patriots have the fourth-worst turnover margin in the league at -6, forcing seven turnovers (27th in NFL) while turning it over 13 times (23rd in NFL).


The Commanders have been struggling on defense, ranking fourth-worst with 374.1 total yards allowed per game. They have been better on the other side of the ball, putting up 319.6 total yards per contest (20th-ranked). The Commanders’ defense has been bottom-five in scoring defense this season, allowing 28.5 points per game, which ranks second-worst in the NFL. On offense, they rank 17th with 21.4 points per contest.

The Commanders have been struggling against the pass, ranking fourth-worst with 256.8 passing yards given up per game. They have been better on the other side of the ball, compiling 233.8 passing yards per contest (12th-ranked). The Commanders are putting up 85.9 rushing yards per game on offense this season (27th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 117.4 rushing yards per contest (21st-ranked) on defense.

The Commanders’ third-down offense has been a bottom-five unit this season, generating a 33% third-down percentage, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL. On defense, they rank 23rd with a 41.1% third-down rate surrendered. The Commanders’ defense has been struggling in terms of yards given up per play, ranking fourth-worst at 5.7. They have been more productive offensively, regstering 5 yards per play (21st-ranked). The Commanders have recorded 12 forced turnovers (10th in NFL) and committed 12 turnovers (19th in NFL) this season for a 0 turnover margin that ranks 15th in the NFL.

Patriots vs. Commanders Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Kendrick Bourne WR Knee Out
Tyquan Thornton WR Foot Probable
Josh Uche LB Ankle Probable
Ja’Whaun Bentley LB Hamstring Probable
DeVante Parker WR Head Out
Pharaoh Brown TE Back Probable
Vederian Lowe OT Ankle Probable
Jonathan Jones DB Knee Probable
Alex Austin CB Gameday inactive Out
Kayshon Boutte WR Gameday inactive Out
Will Grier QB Gameday inactive Out


Player Pos. Injury Status
Curtis Samuel WR Toe Out
Tariq Castro-Fields CB Gameday inactive Out
Curtis Hodges TE Gameday inactive Out
Nolan Laufenberg OG Gameday inactive Out
Mitchell Tinsley WR Gameday inactive Out
Ricky Stromberg C Knee Out
Alex Akingbulu OT Gameday inactive Out

Patriots vs. Commanders Betting Analysis

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots have covered the spread two times over eight games with a set spread. The Patriots have an ATS record of 1-1 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.

Games involving the Patriots have hit the over three times this season.

Commanders Betting Insights

The Commanders have covered the spread three times in eight games with a set spread. The Commanders are 2-1-1 ATS when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs.

Games involving Commanders have hit the over four times this season. This season, the Commanders have been the underdog five times and won two of those games.

The Commanders have a record of 1-3 in games where oddsmakers have them as underdogs of at least +124 on the moneyline.

Patriots vs. Commanders Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.1 42.5 41.6
Implied Team Total AVG 23.3 23.3 23.3
ATS Record 2-6-0 1-3-0 1-3-0
Over/Under Record 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-1 0-1 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-5 1-2 0-3


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.3 42.5 40.1
Implied Team Total AVG 23.5 24.8 22.3
ATS Record 3-4-1 0-3-1 3-1-0
Over/Under Record 4-4-0 2-2-0 2-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-2 1-1 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-3 0-2 2-1

Players to Watch


  • Mac Jones has 1,641 passing yards in eight games this year, averaging 205.1 per game with a 66.5% completion percentage and nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson averages 3.2 yards per carry (37th in the NFL) and 38.4 yards per game, and has 307 total rushing yards. He has scored two rushing TDs this season.
  • Stevenson has 25 receptions on 34 targets for 173 yards. He has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
  • Ezekiel Elliott’s output on the ground this season includes 260 yards and two TDs. He is averaging 32.5 yards per game and 3.9 per attempt (24th in the NFL).
  • Hunter Henry has racked up 238 receiving yards and two touchdowns with 23 catches on 34 targets. He is averaging 2.9 receptions and 29.8 yards per game.
  • Over on the defensive side, Kyle Dugger has 55 tackles, five TFL, one sack, and one interception in 2023. His tackle total leads the Patriots.
  • Jabrill Peppers has 49 tackles, three TFL, and one interception this season.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley has recorded 55 tackles, three TFL, and one sack this year. He leads the Patriots in tackles.
  • Jahlani Tavai has one sack (fourth on the Patriots) as well as two TFL, 47 tackles, and one interception on the year.


  • Sam Howell has passed for 2,146 yards this year (to rank sixth in the NFL), with 13 touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) and eight interceptions. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 268.3 yards per game and 7 per attempt.
  • Howell has also rushed for one touchdown and 130 yards (second on the Commanders).
  • Brian Robinson Jr. averages 48 rushing yards per game through eight games (384 total yards), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
  • Robinson has also picked up 133 receiving yards (16.6 per game) on 13 catches (1.6 per game). He’s been targeted 16 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
  • So far this season, Terry McLaurin has caught 42 passes for 495 receiving yards with two touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 63 total times and is averaging 5.3 receptions per game through eight games played.
  • Logan Thomas has 29 catches for 280 yards and three receiving touchdowns. He averages 4.1 yards per game through seven games and has been targeted 40 times.
  • Kamren Curl has 65 tackles, three TFL, one sack, and four passes defended in 2023.
  • Jamin Davis has two sacks (third on the Commanders) to go with two TFL, 48 tackles, and one interception.
  • Benjamin St-Juste has 39 tackles and one interception.
  • Da’Ron Payne’s season stats include 25 tackles, six TFL, and one sack through eight games.

Patriots vs. Commanders Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this contest is the Patriots, and we expect that Commanders will cover the spread (Patriots -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40.5 points.

How to Bet on Patriots vs. Commanders

You can bet this Patriots vs. Commanders pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

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Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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