Patriots vs. Colts Prediction: Week 9 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – November 2022

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Sunday, November 6, 2022 will see the New England Patriots (4-4) meet the Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) at Gillette Stadium.

Patriots vs. Colts Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Patriots as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Patriots have -225 odds to pick up the win, while the Colts are listed at +190 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 40.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Patriots vs. Colts Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium

Betting Preview

Patriots

Offensively, the Patriots rank 20th in the NFL with 334.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 19th in total defense (350.5 yards allowed per contest). The Patriots rank 17th in scoring offense (22.1 points per game) and 12th in scoring defense (20.4 points allowed per game) this season.

The Patriots are putting up 211.4 passing yards per game on offense (23rd in the NFL), and they rank 19th on defense with 224.5 passing yards allowed per game. The Patriots rank 13th in run offense (123.1 rushing yards per game) and 22nd in run defense (126.0 rushing yards allowed per game) this season.

The Patriots are averaging a 39.8% third-down conversion rate on offense (17th in the NFL), and they rank 27th defensively with a 43.4% third-down percentage allowed. The Patriots rank 13th in offensive yards per play (5.5) and 13th in yards per play allowed (5.5) this season. The Patriots rank 15th in the NFL with an even turnover margin after forcing 16 turnovers (second in the NFL) and committing 16 (30th in the NFL).

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Colts

From an offensive standpoint, the Colts are accumulating 339.4 total yards per game (18th-ranked). They rank ninth in the NFL on the other side of the ball (319.8 total yards allowed per game). The Colts’ offense has been a bottom-five unit this season, compiling 16.1 points per game, which ranks third-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank seventh with 19.6 points ceded per contest.

In terms of passing, the Colts rank ninth in the NFL (251.6 passing yards per game) and eighth on the other side of the ball (199.8 passing yards allowed per contest). The Colts’ running game has been struggling, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL with 87.8 rushing yards per game. They have been more effective defensively, giving up 120.0 rushing yards per contest (16th-ranked).

The Colts rank 15th in the NFL with a 40.4% third-down conversion rate, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by allowing a 32.7% third-down rate. From an offensive standpoint, the Colts are posting 5.1 yards per play (25th-ranked). They rank eighth in the NFL on defense (5.2 yards allowed per play). The Colts have not done well in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of -8 is second-worst in the NFL.

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Patriots vs. Colts Injury Report

Patriots

Player Pos. Injury Status
Damien Harris RB Illness Questionable
Pierre Strong Jr. RB Hamstring Questionable
DeVante Parker WR Knee Out
David Andrews C Concussion Out
Josh Uche LB Hamstring Questionable
Jack Jones DB Illness Questionable
Kyle Dugger DB Ankle Questionable

Colts

Player Pos. Injury Status
Jonathan Taylor RB Ankle Out
Matt Ryan QB Shoulder Out
Tony Brown CB Hamstring Out
E.J. Speed LB Ankle Questionable
Tyquan Lewis DE Knee Out
Dennis Kelly OT Calf Questionable
Grant Stuard LB Pectoral Out

Patriots vs. Colts Betting Analysis

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Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots have covered the spread four times this season (4-3-1). The Patriots have not covered the spread when playing as at least 5-point favorites (0-1).

Patriots games have gone over the total four times this season. The Patriots won 66.7% of the games last season when they were favored on the moneyline (8-4).

The Patriots had a 6-1 record last year (winning 85.7% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -225 or shorter.

Colts Betting Insights

The Colts have covered the spread in a game three times this year (3-5-0). The Colts are a perfect 1-0 ATS when playing as at least 5-point underdogs.

Colts games have gone over the total once this season. This season, the Colts have won two out of the three games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Colts have played as an underdog of +190 or more once this season and won that game.

Patriots vs. Colts Against The Spread & Betting Records

Patriots

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.7 44.2 41.8
Implied Total AVG 23.8 24.3 23.4
ATS Record 4-3-1 1-2-0 3-1-1
Over/Under Record 4-4-0 2-1-0 2-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 1-1 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-3 0-1 1-2

Colts

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.7 43.9 43.5
Implied Total AVG 23.9 24.0 23.8
ATS Record 3-5-0 2-2-0 1-3-0
Over/Under Record 1-7-0 1-3-0 0-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-3-1 1-2 0-1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-1 1-0 1-1

Players to Watch

Patriots

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  • On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson averages 4.9 yards per attempt (22nd in the NFL) and 69.8 yards per game for 558 total rushing yards. He has recorded four rushing touchdowns this season.
  • Stevenson has been targeted 37 times in the receiving game and has 32 catches (4.0 per game) for 217 yards (27.1 per game) and zero TDs.
  • Jakobi Meyers has 35 receptions for 415 yards and three TDs. In six games, he is averaging 5.8 catches and 69.2 yards per game.
  • Damien Harris‘ output on the ground this season includes 302 yards and three TDs. He’s averaging 43.1 yards per game and 4.3 per attempt (35th in the NFL).
  • Mac Jones has passed for 993 yards, three touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He is averaging 198.6 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt, while completing 65.9%.
  • To go along with his passing statistics, Jones also has 80 yards on the ground (third on the Patriots), with one rushing touchdown.
  • On the defensive side, Matthew Judon has 8.5 sacks (first in the NFL) to go with 6.0 TFL and 27 tackles in 2022.
  • Deatrich Wise has 28 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 5.0 sacks so far this season.
  • This season, Devin McCourty has recorded 43 tackles and two interceptions.
  • Jack Jones has two interceptions while adding 23 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and four passes defended.

Colts

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  • Through seven games played this year, Matt Ryan has totaled 2,008 passing yards (seventh-best in the NFL), with nine touchdowns against nine interceptions and completing 68.4% of his passes.
  • Michael Pittman Jr. has 51 catches (sixth in the NFL) for 528 yards and one receiving touchdown. He has been targeted 70 times and averages 7.3 receptions per game through seven games played.
  • Jonathan Taylor is averaging 77.0 rushing yards per game this season (462 total yards), while scoring one rushing touchdown.
  • In addition to his rushing stats, Taylor has hauled in 16 passes (on 25 targets) for 71 yards (ninth on the Colts). He averages 11.8 yards per game.
  • Alec Pierce has been targeted 38 times, resulting in 24 catches for 373 yards .
  • So far in 2022, Zaire Franklin has put up 5.0 TFL and 80 tackles over eight games.
  • Bobby Okereke has 72 tackles and 3.0 TFL. He is second on the Colts and eighth in the NFL in tackles.
  • DeForest Buckner has recorded 4.0 sacks (first on the Colts) as well as 4.0 TFL and 31 tackles in the 2022 season.
  • Grover Stewart’s season stats include 42 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 2.0 sacks in eight games. He is third on the Colts in tackles.

Patriots vs. Colts Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Patriots, and we project that Patriots will cover the spread (Patriots -5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 40.5 points.

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How to Bet on Patriots vs. Colts

You can bet on Patriots vs. Colts at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Patriots vs. Colts picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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