Bills vs. Patriots Prediction: Week 18 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 8, 2023

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On Sunday, January 8, 2023, the Buffalo Bills (12-3) host the New England Patriots (8-8) at Highmark Stadium and will try to continue a six-game winning streak.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 7.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -365 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +300 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 43.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 8, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview

Bills

The Bills have been a tough opponent for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both total offense (second-best with 402.3 yards per game) and total defense (fifth-best with 317.7 yards allowed per game) this year. The Bills have been clicking on all fronts this year, as they rank fourth-best in scoring offense (28.0 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (17.5 points allowed per game).

The Bills rank sixth in pass offense (259.5 passing yards per game) and 14th in pass defense (213.3 passing yards allowed per game) this season. The Bills sport the seventh-ranked offense this season in terms of rushing yards (142.8 per game), and they’ve been more effective defensively, ranking fourth-best with only 104.4 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Bills rank eighth in third-down defense this year (37.9% third-down percentage allowed), but they’ve been shining on offense, ranking best in the NFL with a 49.7% third-down percentage. On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking second-best in the NFL by totaling 6.2 yards per play. They rank sixth on defense (5.1 yards per play allowed). With 24 forced turnovers (sixth in NFL) against 24 turnovers committed (29th in NFL), the Bills’ even turnover margin ranks 15th in the NFL.

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Patriots

With 312.9 total yards per game on offense, the Patriots rank 26th in the NFL in 2022. Defensively, they rank eighth, surrendering 321.7 total yards per contest. The Patriots rank 17th in the NFL with 21.3 points per contest, but they’ve been carried by their defense, which ranks fifth-best by surrendering just 19.5 points per contest.

With 206.3 passing yards per game on offense, the Patriots rank 21st in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 16th, surrendering 215.3 passing yards per game. The Patriots have been dominant on run defense, allowing only 106.4 rushing yards per contest (fifth-best). Offensively, they rank 23rd in the NFL by posting 106.6 rushing yards per game.

From an offensive standpoint, the Patriots are putting up a 35.1% third-down conversion percentage (26th-ranked). They rank 19th in the NFL on defense (39.3% third-down rate allowed). In terms of yards per play, the Patriots’ defense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank third-best in the NFL with 5.0 yards surrendered per play. In terms of offense, they are posting 5.3 yards per play, which ranks 17th. The Patriots have excelled in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of +7 ranks fourth-best in the NFL, with 27 forced turnovers (second in league) and 20 turnovers committed (12th in league).

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Bills vs. Patriots Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status

Patriots

Player Pos. Injury Status
Jonnu Smith TE Concussion Out
Brenden Schooler DB Hip Questionable
Jake Bailey P Suspension Out
Jonathan Jones DB Chest Questionable
Jalen Mills CB Groin Out
Jack Jones DB Suspension Out
Jakobi Meyers WR Shoulder Questionable

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills are 7-8-0 against the spread this season. The Bills have an ATS record of 4-4 when playing as at least 7.5-point favorites.

Bills games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under five times this season. The Bills won 64.3% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (9-5).

The Bills had a 6-1 record last year (winning 85.7% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -365 or shorter.

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots are 7-8-1 against the spread this year. The Patriots have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 7.5-point underdogs.

Patriots games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under seven times this season. This season, the Patriots have been the underdog eight times and won one of those games.

The Patriots have played as an underdog of +300 or more once this season and lost that game.

Bills vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.1 46.5 49.5
Implied Total AVG 27.7 28.1 27.4
ATS Record 7-8-0 3-4-0 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 5-10-0 4-3-0 1-7-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 12-3 6-1 6-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Patriots

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.3 42.2 42.5
Implied Total AVG 23.1 23.0 23.3
ATS Record 7-8-1 3-5-0 4-3-1
Over/Under Record 7-9-0 3-5-0 4-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-1 4-1 3-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-7 0-3 1-4

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen has 4,029 passing yards (eighth in the NFL), 32 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 13 interceptions this year. He has completed 63.4% of his passes, averaging 268.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
  • To go along with his passing statistics, Allen also has 746 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with seven rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs has 101 catches (sixth in the NFL) for 1,325 yards (fifth in the NFL) and 10 TDs. Through 15 games, he is averaging 6.7 catches and 88.3 yards per game.
  • Through 15 games, Devin Singletary has amassed 790 yards on the ground, averaging 52.7 yards per game and scoring five touchdowns.
  • Singletary also has 37 catches, 277 yards and one TD through the air.
  • Gabriel Davis averages 3.2 receptions and 56.9 yards per game, and has 797 total receiving yards and 45 catches. He’s gotten 82 total targets, and has caught seven touchdown passes.
  • Over on defense, Matt Milano has two interceptions to go with 90 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and 10 passes defended in 2022.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has 1.0 sack in addition to his 5.0 TFL and 97 tackles.
  • This season, Taron Johnson has recorded 4.0 TFL, 82 tackles, and one interception.
  • This season, Dane Jackson has 56 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and two interceptions.

Patriots

  • So far this year in 16 games, Rhamondre Stevenson has churned out 986 rushing yards (leading the Patriots) and scored five rushing touchdowns. He averages 61.6 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (14th in the NFL).
  • Stevenson has also been a part of the receiving game with 393 yards (24.6 per game) on 64 receptions (4.0 per game), while being targeted 83 times. He has one receiving touchdown.
  • Mac Jones has 2,753 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His completion percentage is 65.2% and he averages 211.8 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt.
  • He has also added 97 rushing yards (fourth on the Patriots), with one touchdown on the ground (averaging 7.5 yards per game and 2.3 per carry).
  • Damien Harris is averaging 34.6 rushing yards per game this season (415 total yards), while scoring three rushing touchdowns.
  • Hunter Henry has 35 catches for 467 yards and two receiving touchdowns. He averages 2.2 yards per game in 16 games and has been targeted 52 times.
  • So far in 2022, Matthew Judon has recorded 15.5 sacks to go with 12.0 TFL and 55 tackles through 16 games. He ranks third in the NFL in sacks.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley has registered 3.0 sacks in addition to his 4.0 TFL, 113 tackles, and one interception through 16 games.
  • Kyle Dugger has 64 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and three interceptions in the 2022 season. He is third on the Patriots in tackles.
  • Deatrich Wise’s season stats include 55 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks through 16 games.

Bills vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Bills, and we expect that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -7.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 43.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Patriots

You can bet on Bills vs. Patriots at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Patriots picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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