Patriots vs Lions Prediction: Week 5 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – October 2022

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On Sunday, October 9, 2022, the New England Patriots (1-3) and the Detroit Lions (1-3) clash at Gillette Stadium.

Patriots vs. Lions Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Patriots as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Patriots have -170 odds to pick up the win, while the Lions are listed at +145 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 45.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Patriots vs. Lions Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, October 9, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium

Betting Preview


The Patriots are averaging 341.3 yards per game on offense, which ranks them 19th in the NFL. On defense, they rank 19th, allowing 346.8 yards per contest. The Patriots rank 23rd in scoring offense (18.5 points per game) and 22nd in scoring defense (24.5 points allowed per game) this season.

The Patriots rank 22nd in pass offense (212.8 passing yards per game) and 10th in pass defense (211.0 passing yards allowed per game) this year. The Patriots are compiling 128.5 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 10th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 26th, giving up 135.8 rushing yards per contest.

In addition to a 46.3% third-down percentage allowed on defense, which ranks fifth-worst in the NFL, the Patriots have posted the 14th-ranked third-down conversion rate (39.1%) on offense. The Patriots are allowing 5.6 yards per play on the defensive side of the ball (16th in the NFL), while accumulating 5.7 per play (11th in the league) on offense this season. With six forced turnovers (12th in NFL) against nine turnovers committed (28th in NFL), the Patriots’ -3 turnover margin is the fifth-worst in the league.


On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions are a bottom-five unit, allowing 444.8 total yards per game (worst). On the bright side, they are dominating on offense, posting 436.8 total yards per contest (best). On defense, the Lions are bottom-five, surrendering 35.3 points per game (worst). On the bright side, they are dominating on the offensive side of the ball, putting up 35.0 points per contest (best).

Defensively, the Lions are a bottom-five pass unit, surrendering 279.3 passing yards per game (third-worst). On the bright side, they are thriving on the other side of the ball, putting up 272.8 passing yards per contest (fifth-best). The Lions have been struggling to stop the run, ranking third-worst with 165.5 rushing yards given up per game. They have been more effective offensively, compiling 164.0 rushing yards per contest (sixth-ranked).

The Lions have been struggling on third down, ranking worst with a 52.8% third-down conversion rate allowed per game. They have been more effective offensively, posting a 37.7% third-down rate (18th-ranked). The Lions are second-worst in yards per play allowed on defense (6.5), but at least they’ve been getting things done on offense, best in yards per play (6.5). The Lions sport a -1 turnover margin this season, which ranks 22nd in the NFL.

Patriots vs. Lions Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Brian Hoyer QB Head Out
DaMarcus Mitchell FB Concussion Out
Lawrence Guy FB Shoulder Out
Jonnu Smith TE Ankle Doubtful
Mac Jones QB Ankle Doubtful
Kyle Dugger DB Knee Questionable
Isaiah Wynn FB Hip Questionable
Raekwon McMillan LB Thumb Questionable
Adrian Phillips DB Ribs Questionable
Jalen Mills CB Hamstring Questionable
Jakobi Meyers WR Knee Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Josh Paschal FB Sports hernia Questionable
Jerry Jacobs CB Acl Questionable
Charles Harris FB Groin Out
Matt Nelson OT Calf Out
Quintez Cephus WR Foot Out
D’Andre Swift RB Ankle Out
John Cominsky FB Wrist Out
D.J. Chark WR Ankle Out
Kayode Awosika OG Hamstring Questionable
Josh Reynolds WR Ankle Questionable
Evan Brown C Ankle Questionable
Chris Board LB Knee Questionable
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Ankle Questionable
Jonah Jackson OG Finger Questionable

Patriots vs. Lions Betting Analysis

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots have covered the spread once over four games with a set spread.

Patriots games have gone over the total twice this season. The Patriots finished with an 8-4 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 66.7% of those games).

When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -170 or shorter, the Patriots had a 7-2 record (winning 77.8% of their games).

Lions Betting Insights

The Lions have covered the spread three times over four games with a set spread. In games they have played as 3.5-point underdogs or more, the Lions have a perfect ATS record of 2-0.

All Lions have games have gone over the total this season. This season, the Lions have won one out of the three games in which they’ve been the underdog.

This season, the Lions have been at least a +145 underdog on the moneyline two times, losing each of those contests.

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Patriots vs. Lions Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.8 45.0 42.0
Implied Total AVG 24.0 24.0 24.0
ATS Record 1-2-1 0-1-0 1-1-1
Over/Under Record 2-2-0 1-0-0 1-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 0-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-3 0-1 0-2


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.3 48.5 51.5
Implied Total AVG 26.5 25.7 29.0
ATS Record 3-1-0 2-1-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 4-0-0 3-0-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1 0-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 1-1 0-1

Players to Watch


  • Damien Harris‘ rushing output this season includes 246 yards and three TDs. He’s averaging 61.5 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (21st in the NFL).
  • Mac Jones has 786 passing yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions this year. He has completed 66.0% of his passes, averaging 262.0 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.
  • He has tacked on 37 rushing yards (12.3 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.
  • In four games, Rhamondre Stevenson has amassed 211 yards on the ground, averaging 52.8 yards per game and scoring one touchdown.
  • Stevenson has 11 receptions on 14 targets for 57 yards, though he has not scored a touchdown in the passing game.
  • DeVante Parker has put up 189 receiving yards and one touchdown with eight catches on 16 targets. He is averaging 2.0 receptions and 47.3 yards per game.
  • On defense for the Patriots, Deatrich Wise has racked up 17 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks in 2022.
  • Matthew Judon has 15 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks so far this season.
  • Jonathan Jones has put up 15 tackles and one interception this year.
  • This season, Devin McCourty has 24 tackles.


  • Through four games played this year, Jared Goff has totaled 1,126 passing yards (fifth-best in the NFL), with 11 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against three interceptions and completing 60.9% of his attempts.
  • Jamaal Williams averages 69.0 rushing yards per game through four games (276 total yards), while scoring six rushing touchdowns.
  • In three games played this season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has 23 catches (7.7 receptions per game on 11 targets per game) for 253 yards and three receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL).
  • T.J. Hockenson has 18 catches for 261 yards and three receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL). He averages 4.5 yards per game in four games and has been targeted 30 times.
  • So far in 2022, Alex Anzalone has 1.0 sack to go with 2.0 TFL and 31 tackles over four games.
  • Malcolm Rodriguez’s stat sheet includes 32 tackles and 1.0 TFL.
  • DeShon Elliott has 28 tackles in the 2022 campaign.
  • Aidan Hutchinson’s season stats include 12 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 3.0 sacks in four games.

Patriots vs. Lions Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Patriots, and we predict that Patriots will cover the spread (Patriots -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 45.5 points.

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How to Bet on Patriots vs. Lions

You can bet on Patriots vs. Lions at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Patriots vs. Lions picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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