Commanders vs Falcons Prediction: Week 12 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – November 27, 2022

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On Sunday, November 27, 2022, the Washington Commanders (6-5) and the Atlanta Falcons (5-6) go toe to toe at FedExField.

Commanders vs. Falcons Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Commanders as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Commanders have -190 odds to pick up the win, while the Falcons are listed at +160 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 40.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Commanders vs. Falcons Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 27, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Landover, Maryland
  • Stadium: FedExField

Betting Preview


The Commanders are totaling 325.9 yards per game on offense (23rd in NFL), and they rank sixth on defense with 308.1 yards allowed per game. The Commanders are totaling 19.5 points per game on offense (23rd in NFL), and they rank 12th on defense with 20.3 points allowed per game.

On offense, the Commanders rank 23rd in the NFL with 209.8 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 12th in passing yards allowed per contest (204.9). The Commanders rank 16th in run offense (116.1 rushing yards per game) and sixth in run defense (103.2 rushing yards allowed per game) this season.

The Commanders have the 26th-ranked offense this season in terms of third-down efficiency (36.4% percentage), and they’ve been better defensively, ranking second-best with a 32.8% third-down percentage allowed. The Commanders rank fourth-worst in offensive yards per play (4.8), but they’ve played better on defense, ranking ninth with 5.2 yards per play allowed. The Commanders rank 17th in the NFL with an even turnover margin after forcing 13 turnovers (16th in the NFL) and committing 13 (14th in the NFL).

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The Falcons rank 26th in total yards per game (313.8), but they’ve been less productive defensively, ranking fourth-worst in the NFL with 389.4 total yards conceded per contest. From an offensive angle, the Falcons are generating 23.5 points per contest (13th-ranked). They rank 27th in the NFL defensively (24.9 points surrendered per game).

In terms of passing, this season has been hard for the Falcons on both sides of the ball, as they are averaging just 154.5 passing yards per contest (second-worst) and allowing 266.3 passing yards per game (fourth-worst). The Falcons’ run defense ranks 21st in the NFL with 123.1 rushing yards allowed per game, but they’ve been carried by their offense, which ranks third-best by posting 159.4 rushing yards per contest.

The Falcons’ defense has been a bottom-five unit on third down this season, surrendering a 47.7% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks third-worst in the NFL. On offense, they rank 13th with a 47.7% third-down rate. The Falcons rank 16th in yards per play (5.4), but they’ve been less effective on the defensive side of the ball, fifth-worst in the NFL with 5.9 yards conceded per play. The Falcons have compiled 14 forced turnovers (ninth in NFL) and committed 15 turnovers (25th in NFL) this season for a -1 turnover margin that ranks 21st in the NFL.

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Commanders vs. Falcons Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Carson Wentz QB Finger Questionable
Cole Holcomb LB Foot Out
Dax Milne WR Foot Out
Benjamin St-Juste CB Ankle Out
Logan Thomas TE Rib Questionable
Chase Young DE Acl Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Caleb Huntley RB Ankle Questionable
Arnold Ebiketie OLB Arm Questionable
Chuma Edoga OT Knee Questionable
Feleipe Franks TE Calf Questionable
Kyle Pitts TE Mcl Out
Jalen Dalton DT Toe Doubtful
Justin Shaffer OG Undisclosed Out

Commanders vs. Falcons Betting Analysis

Commanders Betting Insights

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The Commanders are 7-4-0 against the spread this season. The Commanders have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites.

Commanders games have gone over the total four times this season. The Commanders went 3-1 in games they were favored on the moneyline last season (winning 75% of those games).

The Commanders played as a moneyline favorite of -190 or shorter in only two games last season, and they won both.

Falcons Betting Insights

The Falcons have covered the spread in a game seven times this season (7-4-0). In games this season when an underdog by 3.5 points or more, the Falcons are 4-1 against the spread.

This year, Falcons games have hit the over six times. This season, the Falcons have won three out of the eight games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Falcons have a record of 1-4 when they’re set as an underdog of +160 or more by bookmakers this season.

Commanders vs. Falcons Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.8 43.7 42.0
Implied Total AVG 23.3 23.6 23.0
ATS Record 7-4-0 3-2-0 4-2-0
Over/Under Record 4-7-0 2-3-0 2-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 1-0 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-3 1-2 2-1


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.8 46.3 45.2
Implied Total AVG 25.0 24.5 25.6
ATS Record 7-4-0 4-2-0 3-2-0
Over/Under Record 6-5-0 3-3-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 2-0 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-5 2-2 1-3

Players to Watch


  • On the ground, Antonio Gibson averages 3.7 yards per attempt (54th in the NFL) and 40.4 yards per game for 444 total rushing yards. He has recorded three rushing touchdowns this season.
  • Gibson has 44 targets, 37 receptions, 284 receiving yards and two TDs through the air.
  • Terry McLaurin‘s 792 receiving yards this season (ninth in the NFL) have come from 80 targets and 50 receptions. He’s averaging 72.0 receiving yards and 4.5 catches per game, with two receiving touchdowns.
  • In the passing attack, Curtis Samuel, has totaled 493 receiving yards and three touchdowns after hauling in 48 balls on 72 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 44.8 yards and 4.4 receptions in 11 games.
  • Taylor Heinicke has 1,031 passing yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He has completed 60.8% of his passes, averaging 206.2 yards per game and 7.0 per attempt.
  • He has tacked on 62 rushing yards (12.4 per game) and one touchdown on the ground.
  • On defense, Jonathan Allen has 38 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and one interception in 2022.
  • Da’Ron Payne has 6.5 sacks (first on the Commanders) to go with 10.0 TFL and 41 tackles.
  • Montez Sweat has put up 31 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 6.0 sacks, and three passes defended.
  • Jamin Davis has 57 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one pass defended.


  • Marcus Mariota is averaging 7.5 passing yards per attempt (13th in the NFL) and 170.7 yards per game this year, completing 62.2% of his passes on the way to 1,878 total yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions through 11 games.
  • On the ground, Mariota has added four rushing touchdowns and 372 rushing yards (third on the Falcons).
  • Cordarrelle Patterson averages 64.9 rushing yards per game through seven games (454 total yards), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
  • Tyler Allgeier has rushed for one touchdown this year, and has totaled 498 rushing yards (49.8 per game and 4.5 per carry).
  • Allgeier has helped out in the passing attack, picking up 87 receiving yards (8.7 per game) on 10 catches (1.0 per game), while being targeted 10 times. He has one receiving touchdown.
  • Drake London has 409 receiving yards and four touchdowns from 39 receptions after getting 65 targets.
  • Rashaan Evans’ 2022 showing includes 108 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack in 11 games. He leads the league in tackles
  • Mykal Walker has one interception on top of 84 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and four passes defended.
  • Richie Grant has 74 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two interceptions in the 2022 campaign. He is third on the Falcons in tackles.
  • Grady Jarrett has put up 5.5 sacks (first on the Falcons) to go with 9.0 TFL and 37 tackles through 11 games.

Commanders vs. Falcons Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Commanders, and we predict that Commanders will cover the spread (Commanders -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40.5 points.

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How to Bet on Commanders vs. Falcons

You can bet on Commanders vs. Falcons at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Commanders vs. Falcons picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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