Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Week 18 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 8, 2023

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The Atlanta Falcons (6-10) host a fellow NFC South competitor on Sunday, January 8, 2023, when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 4 points, with bookmakers listing the Falcons as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Falcons have -190 odds to pick up the win, while the Buccaneers are listed at +160 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 40.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Falcons vs. Buccaneers Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 8, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Betting Preview

Falcons

With 370.9 yards allowed per game on defense, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL, the Falcons have been forced to rely on their 25th-ranked offense (314.7 yards per contest) to keep them competitive. Offensively, the Falcons rank 19th in the NFL with 20.9 points per game. Meanwhile, they rank 23rd in points allowed (370.9 points allowed per contest).

While the Falcons’ pass defense ranks 26th with 237.9 passing yards allowed per game, they’ve been less successful on offense, ranking second-worst (155.7 passing yards per game). The Falcons rank 24th in run defense this season (133.0 rushing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best in the NFL with 159.0 rushing yards per game.

In addition to a 45.9% third-down conversion rate allowed on defense, which ranks second-worst in the NFL, the Falcons have put up the 10th-ranked third-down conversion rate (42.0%) on offense. This season, the Falcons are accumulating 5.3 yards per play (17th in the league), while giving up 5.8 per play on the defensive side of the ball (27th in the NFL). The Falcons own the 25th-ranked turnover margin in the league at -4, forcing 16 turnovers (26th in NFL) while turning it over 20 times (12th in NFL).

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Buccaneers

The Buccaneers rank 12th with 354.5 total yards per game on offense, and they rank seventh with 320.7 total yards allowed per game on the defensive side of the ball. With 18.5 points per game on offense, the Buccaneers rank 24th in the NFL. On defense, they rank eighth, giving up 20.5 points per contest.

The Buccaneers’ pass defense ranks eighth in the NFL with 203.2 passing yards surrendered per game, but they’ve been led by their offense, which ranks second-best by putting up 278.1 passing yards per game. The Buccaneers’ rushing offense has been a bottom-five unit this season, registering 76.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks worst in the NFL. On defense, they rank 15th with 117.5 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Buccaneers are putting up a 36.9% third-down conversion rate on offense this season (22nd-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up a 36.7% third-down rate (sixth-ranked) on defense. The Buccaneers rank 23rd in the NFL with 5.1 yards per play on offense, and they rank sixth with 5.1 yards surrendered per play on the defensive side of the ball. The Buccaneers have produced 19 forced turnovers (20th in NFL) and committed 21 turnovers (15th in NFL) this season for a -2 turnover margin that ranks 20th in the NFL.

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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Injury Report

Falcons

Player Pos. Injury Status
Elijah Wilkinson OT Calf Out

Buccaneers

Player Pos. Injury Status
Julio Jones WR Knee Questionable
Carl Nassib OLB Pectoral Out
Donovan Smith OT Foot Out
Carlton Davis CB Shoulder Out
Jamel Dean CB Toe Questionable

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Falcons Betting Insights

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The Falcons have covered the spread eight times in 16 games with a set spread. The Falcons are winless against the spread when they have played as 4-point favorites or more (0-2).

This season, six Falcons games have gone over the point total. The Falcons won 66.7% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (4-2).

The Falcons played as a moneyline favorite of -190 or shorter in only two games last season, and they split them 1-1.

Buccaneers Betting Insights

The Buccaneers are 4-11-1 against the spread this season.

This season, Buccaneers games have hit the over five times. The Buccaneers have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

The Buccaneers have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +160.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Against The Spread & Betting Records

Falcons

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.2 45.2 43.1
Implied Total AVG 24.3 24.0 24.5
ATS Record 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 6-10-0 3-5-0 3-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 3-0 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-9 2-3 1-6

Buccaneers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.6 44.2 42.9
Implied Total AVG 24.3 24.0 24.6
ATS Record 4-11-1 2-6-1 2-5-0
Over/Under Record 5-11-0 4-5-0 1-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 8-6 5-3 3-3
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-2 0-1 0-1

Players to Watch

Falcons

  • Tyler Allgeier has racked up 900 rushing yards with three touchdowns (60.0 yards per game over 15 games). His 4.8 yards per attempt rank 14th in the league.
  • Allgeier has 17 targets, 16 receptions, 139 receiving yards and one TD in the passing game.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson averages 4.9 yards per carry (12th in the NFL) and 56.4 yards per game, and has 677 total rushing yards. He has scored seven rushing TDs this season.
  • Patterson has 19 catches on 28 targets for 121 yards. He has yet to score a touchdown in the passing game.
  • Drake London has four touchdown catches this season, and has 66 receptions for 746 yards on 109 targets, while averaging 4.1 catches and 46.6 yards per game.
  • Olamide Zaccheaus has racked up 496 receiving yards and two touchdowns with 36 catches on 54 targets. He’s averaging 2.3 receptions and 31.0 yards per game.
  • On the defensive side, Rashaan Evans has 2.0 sacks (fourth on the Falcons) to go with 6.0 TFL and 156 tackles in 2022.
  • Richie Grant has 3.0 TFL, 114 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Mykal Walker has put up 106 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two interceptions this year.
  • So far this season, Grady Jarrett has 55 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 6.0 sacks.

Buccaneers

  • Tom Brady is averaging 6.4 passing yards per attempt (29th in the NFL) and 288.1 yards per game this year, completing 66.6% of his passes on the way to 4,610 total yards (second in the NFL), 24 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) and nine interceptions through 16 games.
  • He’s added -1 yards on the ground ( on the Buccaneers), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He’s averaging -0.1 yards per game and 0.0 per attempt.
  • Leonard Fournette averages 44.5 rushing yards per game over 15 games (668 total yards), while scoring three rushing touchdowns.
  • Fournette has also picked up 519 receiving yards (34.6 per game) on 72 catches (4.8 per game). He’s been targeted 82 times and has caught three touchdown passes.
  • In 15 games played this season, Mike Evans has 77 catches (5.1 receptions per game on 8.5 targets per game) for 1,124 yards (10th in the NFL) and six receiving touchdowns.
  • Chris Godwin has 968 receiving yards and three touchdowns from 98 receptions (eighth in the NFL) after getting 135 targets.
  • Devin White has 122 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and five passes defended in 2022.
  • Lavonte David’s stat sheet includes 120 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and five passes defended.
  • During the 2022 season, Antoine Winfield Jr. has 67 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and one interception in 12 games.
  • Keanu Neal’s season stats include 61 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 0.5 sacks, and one interception in 16 games.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Buccaneers, and we project that Buccaneers will cover the spread (Falcons -4). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40.5 points.

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How to Bet on Falcons vs. Buccaneers

You can bet on Falcons vs. Buccaneers at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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