Falcons vs. Bears Prediction: Week 11 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – November 20, 2022

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A struggling Chicago Bears (3-7) team visits the Atlanta Falcons (4-6) on Sunday, November 20, 2022 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Bears have suffered defeat in three games in a row.

Falcons vs. Bears Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing the Falcons as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Falcons have -145 odds to pick up the win, while the Bears are listed at +125 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 48.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Falcons vs. Bears Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 20, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Betting Preview

Falcons

The Falcons have the 27th-ranked offense this season (317.2 yards per game), and they’ve been worse defensively, ranking second-worst with 399.5 yards allowed per game. The Falcons are putting up 23.2 points per game on offense (12th in NFL), and they rank 27th on defense with 25.0 points allowed per game.

The Falcons rank second-worst in passing offense (156.8 passing yards per game) and worst in passing defense (280.1 passing yards per game allowed) this season. The Falcons rank 18th in run defense this year (119.4 rushing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on the offensive side of the ball, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 160.4 rushing yards per game.

In addition to a 46.6% third-down percentage allowed on defense, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL, the Falcons have posted the eighth-ranked third-down conversion rate (43.2%) on offense. Despite sporting a bottom-five defense in terms of yards per play that ranks second-worst in the NFL (6.0 yards per play allowed), the Falcons have put up better results on the other side of the ball, ranking 16th in the NFL by averaging 5.4 yards per play. With 13 forced turnovers (11th in NFL) against 13 turnovers committed (18th in NFL), the Falcons (0) have the 14th-ranked turnover margin in the league.

Bears

With 329.9 total yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Bears rank 21st in the NFL in 2022. On defense, they rank 15th, allowing 345.4 total yards per contest. The Bears rank 20th in the NFL with 21.7 points per contest on offense, and they rank 25th with 24.7 points surrendered per contest on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bears’ passing game has not been getting things done, ranking worst in the NFL with 128.1 passing yards per game. They have been better defensively, surrendering 203.4 passing yards per contest (10th-ranked). On defense, the Bears are a bottom-five run unit, surrendering 142.0 rushing yards per game (fifth-worst). On the bright side, they are thriving on the other side of the ball, accumulating 201.8 rushing yards per contest (best).

The Bears’ defense has been a bottom-five unit on third down this season, ceding a 50.0% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks second-worst in the NFL. On offense, they rank seventh with a 50.0% third-down rate. The Bears rank 12th in the NFL with 5.5 yards per play on offense, and they rank 23rd with 5.8 yards ceded per play on defense. At 0, the Bears have the 14th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL, with 13 forced turnovers (11th in NFL) and 13 turnovers committed (18th in NFL).

Falcons vs. Bears Injury Report

Falcons

Player Pos. Injury Status
A.J. Terrell CB Hamstring Questionable
Feleipe Franks TE Calf Out

Bears

Player Pos. Injury Status
Khalil Herbert RB Hip Out
N’Keal Harry WR Illness Out
Kindle Vildor DB Ankle Questionable
Dane Cruikshank DB Hamstring Out

Falcons vs. Bears Betting Analysis

Falcons Betting Insights

The Falcons have covered the spread six times this season (6-4-0). The Falcons have yet to cover a spread when they are at least 3-point favorites (0-1).

This season, Falcons games have hit the over five times. The Falcons went 4-2 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 66.7% of those games).

The Falcons played as a moneyline favorite of -145 or shorter in only two games last season, and they split them 1-1.

Bears Betting Insights

The Bears have gone 4-6-0 against the spread this season. In games they were an underdog in by 3 points or more so far this season, the Bears went 4-2 against the spread.

This year, six Bears games have gone over the point total. The Bears have been underdogs in eight games this season and won two (25%) of those contests.

This season, the Bears have won two of their six games when they’re the underdog by at least +125 on the moneyline.

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Falcons vs. Bears Against The Spread & Betting Records

Falcons

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.6 45.9 45.2
Implied Total AVG 25.0 24.4 25.6
ATS Record 6-4-0 3-2-0 3-2-0
Over/Under Record 5-5-0 2-3-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-1 1-0 0-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-5 2-2 1-3

Bears

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.9 42.3 41.5
Implied Total AVG 23.8 23.0 24.6
ATS Record 4-6-0 2-3-0 2-3-0
Over/Under Record 6-4-0 3-2-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-1 1-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-6 1-2 1-4

Players to Watch

Falcons

  • Marcus Mariota has 1,747 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year. He has completed 61.9% of his passes, averaging 174.7 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
  • He has added 347 rushing yards (34.7 per game) and three touchdowns on the ground.
  • Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing statline this season includes 402 yards and five TDs. He is averaging 67.0 yards per game and 5.3 per attempt (17th in the NFL).
  • In nine games, Tyler Allgeier has amassed 443 yards on the ground, averaging 49.2 yards per game and scoring one touchdown.
  • Allgeier has received nine targets in the passing game and has nine catches (1.0 per game) for 78 yards (8.7 per game) and one TD.
  • Drake London has racked up 407 receiving yards and three touchdowns with 38 catches on 62 targets. He’s averaging 3.8 receptions and 40.7 yards per game.
  • On defense for the Falcons, Rashaan Evans has put up 97 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack in 2022.
  • Mykal Walker has picked off one pass and has added 76 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two passes defended.
  • Richie Grant has totaled 69 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two interceptions this year.
  • This season, Grady Jarrett has 35 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 4.5 sacks.

Bears

  • Through 10 games played this year, Justin Fields has racked up 1,489 passing yards, with 12 touchdowns against seven interceptions and completing 58.9% of his passes.
  • He’s added 749 yards on the ground (first on the Bears and seventh in the NFL), with six rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 74.9 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
  • David Montgomery has 434 rushing yards (third on the Bears) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 48.2 yards per game and 3.8 per carry (51st in the NFL).
  • Montgomery also has 15 catches for 150 yards (sixth on the Bears). He has been targeted 17 times and averages 16.7 yards per game.
  • Cole Kmet has registered 274 receiving yards and five touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) on 23 receptions, while being targeted 33 times this season.
  • Darnell Mooney has 36 catches for 464 yards and one receiving touchdown. He averages 3.6 yards per game in 10 games and has been targeted 56 times.
  • Eddie Jackson has put up 1.0 TFL, 70 tackles, and four interceptions over 10 games in 2022.
  • Jaquan Brisker has 62 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one interception. He is third on the Bears in tackles.
  • Nicholas Morrow has 65 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and one pass defended during the 2022 campaign.
  • Kyler Gordon’s season stats include 48 tackles and one interception in 10 games. He is fourth on the Bears in tackles.

Falcons vs. Bears Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Bears, and we predict that Bears will cover the spread (Falcons -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 48.5 points.

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How to Bet on Falcons vs. Bears

You can bet on Falcons vs. Bears at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Falcons vs. Bears picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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