Dolphins vs. Patriots Prediction: Week 1 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – September 11, 2022

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An AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins (0-0) and New England Patriots (0-0) is slated for Sunday, September 11, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Dolphins as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Dolphins have -175 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +150 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 46 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, September 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium

Betting Preview


  • The Dolphins put roughly the same amount of points on the board per game (20.1) as the Patriots allowed (17.8) last year.
  • Miami was 8-2 against the spread and 7-3 overall last season when the team recorded more than 17.8 points.
  • The Dolphins’ offense averaged 307.0 yards per game last year, within 3.8 yards of the 310.8 the Patriots’ defense allowed. The Dolphins picked up 4.8 yards per play and the Patriots gave up 5.1.
  • Miami was 5-2 against the spread and 4-3 overall when the team piled up more than 310.8 yards last season.
  • The Patriots’ defense gave up an average of 123.7 yards to opposing running games last season. That is 31.5 more yards than the Dolphins averaged running the football (92.2).
  • Last year Miami had a 3-1 ATS record and a 2-2 overall record in games the team rushed for more than 123.7 yards.


  • The Patriots averaged 5.3 more points last year (27.2) than the Dolphins allowed (21.9).
  • New England was 8-3 against the spread and 9-2 overall last season when the team put up over 21.9 points.
  • The average number of yards the Patriots’ offense put up and the Dolphins’ defense gave up last season was within 15.9 yards (353.4 compared to 337.5). The Patriots averaged 5.7 yards per play, while the Dolphins gave up 5.3.
  • In games that New England piled up more than 337.5 yards last season, the team was 5-4 against the spread and 6-3 overall.
  • The Patriots picked up 126.5 rushing yards per game last year, 16.7 more than the Dolphins conceded (109.8).
  • New England had a 7-5 ATS record and an 8-4 overall record when the team rushed for over 109.8 yards last season.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Injury Report


Dolphins: No Injuries Listed


Patriots: No Injuries Listed

Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Dolphins Betting Insights

  • The Dolphins were 10-6-1 against the spread last season.
  • The Dolphins had an ATS record of 3-1 as 3.5-point favorites or greater last year.
  • Miami won 71.4% of the games last season when it was the moneyline favorite (5-2).
  • Miami won all four games it played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -175 or shorter.
  • Out of 17 Dolphins games last year, seven went over the total.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Patriots posted a 10-7-0 record against the spread last year.
  • The Patriots had two wins ATS (2-1) as a 3.5-point underdog or more last season.
  • New England was an underdog in five games last season and won two (40%) of those contests.
  • New England had a record of 1-2 in games where sportsbooks had them as underdogs of at least +150 on the moneyline.
  • Out of the 17 Patriots’ games last season, nine went over the total.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.0 43.6 44.4
Implied Total AVG 24.7 24.3 25.1
ATS Record 10-6-1 6-3-0 4-3-1
Over/Under Record 7-10-0 5-4-0 2-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-2 3-1 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 4-6 3-2 1-4


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.1 44.6 43.7
Implied Total AVG 24.8 25.2 24.3
ATS Record 10-7-0 5-4-0 5-3-0
Over/Under Record 9-8-0 6-3-0 3-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 8-4 4-3 4-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-3 0-2 2-1

Players to Watch


  • For the Broncos, Teddy Bridgewater averaged 7.2 passing yards per attempt (21st in the NFL) and 218.0 yards per game last year, completing 66.9% of his passes on the way to 3,052 total yards, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 14 games.
  • He added 106 yards on the ground, while scoring two rushing touchdowns. He averaged 7.6 yards per game and 3.5 per attempt.
  • Tyreek Hill had 1,239 receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) and nine touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) on 111 receptions (third in the NFL), while being targeted 159 times with the Chiefs last season.
  • Tua Tagovailoa threw for 2,653 yards last year, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He completed 67.8% of his attempts while averaging 204.1 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt.
  • He added 128 yards on the ground, with three rushing touchdowns. He averaged 9.8 yards per game and 3.0 per attempt.
  • Jaylen Waddle was targeted 140 times, resulting in 104 catches (eighth in the NFL) for 1,015 yards .
  • Jerome Baker intercepted one pass and also had92 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 5.5 sacks, and four passes defended in 2021.
  • Christian Wilkins had 4.5 sacks to go with 10.0 TFL and 89 tackles.
  • Andrew Van Ginkel had 4.0 sacks as well as 9.0 TFL and 71 tackles in the 2021 campaign.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah amassed41 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 9.0 sacks, and 12 passes defended.


  • Mac Jones last year racked up 3,801 passing yards with 22 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 67.6% completion percentage.
  • Damien Harris generated 929 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry) and 15 TDs.
  • In 17 games last season, Kendrick Bourne converted 70 targets into 55 catches, 800 yards and five touchdowns.
  • Hunter Henry got 75 targets last year and converted them into 50 receptions (2.9 per game) for 603 yards and nine TDs.
  • With 12.5 sacks to go with 14.0 TFL and 60 tackles in 17 games, Matthew Judon was a big player on defense.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley, who was on the field for 16 games, posted 1.0 sack to go with 5.0 TFL and 109 tackles.
  • Adrian Phillips played in 17 games and amassed four interceptions to go along with 92 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and nine passes defended.
  • With 5.0 TFL, 92 tackles, and four interceptions, Kyle Dugger made a big difference on D.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Patriots, and we project that Patriots will cover the spread (Dolphins -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 46 points.

How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Patriots

You can bet on Dolphins vs. Patriots at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Dolphins vs. Patriots picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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