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A reeling Miami Dolphins (8-7) team visits the New England Patriots (7-8) on Sunday, January 1, 2023 at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins have lost four straight games.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds
Point Spread
The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Patriots as the favorites.
Moneyline
As for the moneyline, the Patriots have -150 odds to pick up the win, while the Dolphins are listed at +130 to claim victory.
Over/Under
Finally, the total for the game is set at 41 points.
Game Info
How to Watch Patriots vs. Dolphins Live?
- Game Day: Sunday, January 1, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Betting Preview
Patriots
The Patriots rank 24th in total offense (317.2 yards per game) and eighth in total defense (320.9 yards allowed per game) this year. The Patriots sport the 16th-ranked offense this year (21.2 points per game), and they’ve been better on defense, ranking fifth-best with just 19.4 points allowed per game.
The Patriots are totaling 208.6 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 21st in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 14th, giving up 213.1 passing yards per contest. The Patriots are averaging 108.6 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 22nd in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank ninth, allowing 107.8 rushing yards per contest.
The Patriots rank 26th in third-down efficiency (34.9%) on offense and 21st in third-down conversion rate allowed (40.0%) on defense this season. The Patriots have the fifth-best defense in the NFL in terms of yards per play allowed (5.0), while their offense is ranked 15th, accumulating 5.4 per play. The Patriots have the sixth-ranked turnover margin in the NFL at +5, forcing 25 turnovers (third in NFL) while turning it over 20 times (19th in NFL).
Dolphins
The Dolphins’ offense has been dominant, racking up 370.8 total yards per game (fifth-best) this season. On defense, they rank 21st by giving up 353.8 total yards per game. From an offensive standpoint, the Dolphins are putting up 24.3 points per game (ninth-ranked). They rank 27th in the NFL on defense (24.7 points given up per game).
The Dolphins rank fifth-worst in passing yards allowed per game (244.7), but at least they’ve been excelling on offense, ranking second-best in passing yards per game (274.9). The Dolphins are posting 95.9 rushing yards per game on offense this season (27th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are allowing 109.1 rushing yards per contest (10th-ranked) on defense.
With a 37.3% third-down conversion rate on offense, the Dolphins rank 22nd in the NFL. On defense, they rank 25th, surrendering a 41.7% third-down rate. The Dolphins’ offense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 6.3 yards per play. In terms of defense, they are conceding 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 14th. The Dolphins have a bottom-five turnover margin this season, fifth-worst at -5.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Injury Report
Patriots
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | Ankle | Questionable |
| Damien Harris | RB | Thigh | Questionable |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | Knee | Questionable |
| Jonnu Smith | TE | Concussion | Questionable |
| Marcus Jones | DB | Concussion | Questionable |
| Hunter Henry | TE | Knee | Questionable |
| DeVante Parker | WR | Concussion | Questionable |
| Jalen Mills | CB | Groin | Questionable |
| Jack Jones | DB | Knee | Questionable |
| Adrian Phillips | DB | Illness | Questionable |
| Jonathan Jones | DB | Chest | Questionable |
| Scotty Washington | TE | Undisclosed | Out |
Dolphins
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Concussion | Out |
| Myles Gaskin | RB | Mcl | Out |
| Alec Ingold | FB | Thumb | Questionable |
| Xavien Howard | CB | Knee | Questionable |
| Bradley Chubb | OLB | Ankle | Questionable |
| Jaelan Phillips | LB | Toe | Questionable |
| Terron Armstead | OT | Toe | Questionable |
| River Cracraft | WR | Calf | Questionable |
| Brandon Shell | OT | Shoulder | Questionable |
| Eric Fisher | OT | Calf | Questionable |
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis
Patriots Betting Insights
The Patriots have gone 7-7-1 against the spread this season. In games they have played as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Patriots have an ATS record of 4-1-1.
Patriots games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this season. The Patriots won eight of the 12 games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (66.7%).
The Patriots went 7-3 last year (winning 70% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -150 or shorter.
Dolphins Betting Insights
The Dolphins have covered the spread five times over 15 games with a set spread. The Dolphins are 3-3 ATS when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs.
This year, Dolphins games have hit the over seven times. The Dolphins have won two of the six games they’ve played as underdogs this season.
This season, the Dolphins have won two of their six games when they’re the underdog by at least +130 on the moneyline.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Against The Spread & Betting Records
Patriots
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 42.4 | 42.3 | 42.5 |
| Implied Total AVG | 23.2 | 23.1 | 23.3 |
| ATS Record | 7-7-1 | 3-4-0 | 4-3-1 |
| Over/Under Record | 6-9-0 | 2-5-0 | 4-4-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 6-1 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 1-7 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
Dolphins
| Overall | Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Point Total AVG | 47.8 | 47.9 | 47.7 |
| Implied Total AVG | 26.5 | 26.9 | 26.3 |
| ATS Record | 5-8-2 | 3-3-1 | 2-5-1 |
| Over/Under Record | 7-8-0 | 1-6-0 | 6-2-0 |
| Moneyline Favorite Record | 6-3 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Moneyline Underdog Record | 2-4 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
Players to Watch
Patriots
- Mac Jones has 2,550 passing yards through 12 games this year, averaging 212.5 per game with a 65.6% completion percentage and nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.
- In addition to his passing stats, Jones has 96 rushing yards (fourth on the Patriots), with one rushing touchdown.
- Jakobi Meyers has 58 catches for 723 yards and four TDs. Through 12 games, he is averaging 4.8 catches and 60.3 yards per game.
- In the passing game, Kendrick Bourne, has racked up 373 receiving yards and one touchdown after catching 30 balls on 41 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 26.6 yards and 2.1 receptions in 14 games.
- Nelson Agholor averages 2.2 receptions and 25.9 yards per game, and has 362 total receiving yards and 31 catches. He’s gotten 51 total targets, and has caught two touchdown passes.
- On defense for the Patriots, Matthew Judon has powered the unit with 54 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and 15.5 sacks in 2022.
- Ja’Whaun Bentley has 104 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one interception so far this season.
- Kyle Dugger has recorded 59 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two interceptions this year.
- Josh Uche has 26 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 11.5 sacks.
Dolphins
- Tyreek Hill has put up 1,632 receiving yards (second in the NFL) and seven touchdowns on 113 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 158 times this season.
- Jaylen Waddle has 1,260 receiving yards (sixth in the NFL) and eight touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) on 67 receptions, while being targeted 106 times.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. has rushed for five touchdowns this year, and has totaled 743 rushing yards (53.1 per game and 5.1 per carry).
- Wilson has helped out in the receiving game, picking up 152 receiving yards (10.9 per game) on 17 catches (1.2 per game), while being targeted 28 times. He has one receiving touchdown.
- Raheem Mostert has scored three touchdowns on the ground, while running for 791 total yards (4.9 per attempt and 56.5 per game).
- Mostert also has 150 receiving yards (10.7 per game) on 21 catches (1.5 per game). He has been targeted 32 times with one touchdown reception.
- Christian Wilkins has recorded 2.5 sacks to go with 13.0 TFL and 89 tackles through 15 games in 2022.
- Jerome Baker’s stats include 92 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and three passes defended.
- Elandon Roberts has 91 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and 3.5 sacks in the 2022 campaign. He is second on the Dolphins in tackles.
- Jevon Holland has 1.5 sacks as well as 1.0 TFL, 77 tackles, and two interceptions.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions and Pick
Our prediction to win this matchup is the Patriots, and we predict that Patriots will cover the spread (Patriots -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 41 points.
How to Bet on Patriots vs. Dolphins
You can bet on Patriots vs. Dolphins at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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