Dolphins vs. Packers Prediction: Week 16 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – December 25, 2022

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When the Miami Dolphins (8-6) host the Green Bay Packers (6-8) on Sunday, December 25, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium, they will be looking to stop their three-game losing streak.

Dolphins vs. Packers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Dolphins as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Dolphins have -190 odds to pick up the win, while the Packers are listed at +160 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 49.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Packers Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, December 25, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium

Betting Preview

Dolphins

The Dolphins sport the 23rd-ranked defense this season (357.6 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking fifth-best with 370.4 yards per game. The Dolphins are putting up 24.6 points per game offensively this year (ninth in NFL), and they are allowing 24.6 points per game (26th) on the defensive side of the ball.

The Dolphins sport the 27th-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (246.3 allowed per game), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best with 273.6 passing yards per game. The Dolphins rank 27th in run offense (96.9 rushing yards per game) and 10th in run defense (111.3 rushing yards allowed per game) this season.

The Dolphins are averaging a 37.7% third-down percentage on offense this season (21st in NFL), and they are allowing a 43.7% third-down percentage (27th) on the other side of the ball. The Dolphins have the 17th-ranked defense this year in terms of yards per play (5.5 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking second-best with 6.2 yards per play. The Dolphins have the 19th-ranked turnover margin in the league at -2, forcing 13 turnovers (29th in NFL) while turning it over 15 times (sixth in NFL).

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Packers

The Packers rank 15th with 345.6 total yards per contest on offense, and they rank 15th with 334.0 total yards surrendered per contest on the defensive side of the ball. The Packers are putting up 20.5 points per contest on offense this season (20th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 22.4 points per contest (16th-ranked) on defense.

The Packers’ pass defense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 185.1 passing yards surrendered per game. In terms of offense, they are accumulating 219.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 16th. The Packers’ defense has been a bottom-five unit in run defense this season, allowing 148.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. On the offensive side of the ball, they rank 12th with 126.3 rushing yards per contest.

In terms of third-down efficiency, the Packers rank 15th in the NFL (40.7% third-down conversion percentage) and 12th defensively (38.0% third-down rate allowed). The Packers are compiling 5.6 yards per play on offense this season (11th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 5.6 yards per play (18th-ranked) on defense. After forcing 16 turnovers (19th in NFL) and turning the ball over 19 times (21st in NFL) this season, the Packers sport the 23rd-ranked turnover margin of -3.

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Dolphins vs. Packers Injury Report

Dolphins

Player Pos. Injury Status
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB Hip Questionable
Myles Gaskin RB Illness Questionable
Terron Armstead OT Toe Questionable
River Cracraft WR Calf Doubtful
Bradley Chubb OLB Knee Questionable
Jaelan Phillips LB Toe Questionable
Eric Fisher OT Calf Doubtful

Packers

Player Pos. Injury Status
David Bakhtiari OT Knee Doubtful

Dolphins vs. Packers Betting Analysis

Dolphins Betting Insights

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The Dolphins have covered the spread in a matchup five times this season (5-7-2). In games they have played as 3.5-point favorites or more, the Dolphins have an ATS record of 1-3-2.

Dolphins games have gone over the total seven times this season. The Dolphins were the moneyline favorite seven total times last season. They went 5-2 in those games.

The Dolphins won all four games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -190 or shorter.

Packers Betting Insights

The Packers have covered the spread six times in 14 games with a set spread. The Packers are 2-1 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.

This year, seven Packers games have gone over the point total. The Packers have won two of the five games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

The Packers are 1-2 this season when entering a game as the underdog by +160 or more on the moneyline.

Dolphins vs. Packers Against The Spread & Betting Records

Dolphins

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.6 47.6 47.7
Implied Total AVG 26.5 26.8 26.3
ATS Record 5-7-2 3-2-1 2-5-1
Over/Under Record 7-7-0 1-5-0 6-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-2 4-0 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-4 1-1 1-3

Packers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.7 41.9 45.4
Implied Total AVG 24.9 24.7 25.0
ATS Record 6-8-0 3-4-0 3-4-0
Over/Under Record 7-7-0 4-3-0 3-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-5 3-3 1-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-3 1-0 1-3

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,238 yards, 24 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and five interceptions this year. He is averaging 269.8 yards per game and 8.6 per attempt, while completing 64.8% of his passes.
  • Tyreek Hill has caught 109 passes (second in the NFL) on 152 targets for 1,529 total yards (second in the NFL) and seven touchdowns. He is averaging 7.8 catches and 109.2 yards per game in 14 games.
  • Jaylen Waddle has seven touchdown catches this season (seventh in the NFL), and has 62 receptions for 1,117 yards (seventh in the NFL) on 100 targets, while averaging 4.4 catches and 79.8 yards per game.
  • Raheem Mostert has run for 746 yards, averaging 57.4 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns.
  • He’s added 19 catches (on 29 targets) for 146 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 11.2 receiving yards and 1.5 receptions per game.
  • Over on the defensive side, Jerome Baker has 89 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 4.0 sacks in 2022. His tackle total leads the Dolphins.
  • Christian Wilkins has 2.5 sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) as well as 13.0 TFL and 84 tackles.
  • This season, Elandon Roberts has put up 2.5 sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) in addition to his 6.0 TFL and 84 tackles.
  • So far this season, Jevon Holland has 70 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions. He’s fourth on the Dolphins in tackles.

Packers

  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,093 yards this year, with 23 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and 10 interceptions. He is completing 64.9% of his passes while averaging 220.9 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt.
  • Aaron Jones has 937 rushing yards (leading the Packers) and two rushing touchdowns, while averaging 66.9 yards per game and 5.2 per carry (seventh in the NFL).
  • Jones has added 52 receptions (3.7 per game) for 364 yards (26.0 per game) with five receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 63 times in the passing game.
  • A.J. Dillon is averaging 47.1 rushing yards per game this season (660 total yards), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
  • Dillon has helped in the receiving game, picking up 194 receiving yards (13.9 per game) on 26 catches (1.9 per game), while being targeted 36 times. He is trying for his first receiving touchdown.
  • Christian Watson has 29 catches for 447 yards and seven receiving touchdowns (seventh in the NFL). He averages 2.6 yards per game through 11 games and has been targeted 46 times.
  • Quay Walker has 105 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and five passes defended in 2022.
  • Preston Smith has 50 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 7.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • Rasul Douglas has intercepted three passes on top of 65 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and eight passes defended during the 2022 season.
  • De’Vondre Campbell has totaled 5.0 TFL, 79 tackles, and one interception.

Dolphins vs. Packers Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Dolphins, and we project that Dolphins will cover the spread (Dolphins -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 49.5 points.

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How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Packers

You can bet on Dolphins vs. Packers at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Dolphins vs. Packers picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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