Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction: Week 14 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – December 11, 2022

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On Sunday, December 11, 2022, the Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) go head to head with the Miami Dolphins (8-4) at SoFi Stadium.

Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Dolphins as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Dolphins have -170 odds to pick up the win, while the Chargers are listed at +145 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 52 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Chargers Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, December 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NBC
  • Location: Inglewood, California
  • Stadium: SoFi Stadium

Betting Preview

Dolphins

The Dolphins rank 17th in total defense this season (344.0 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 380.2 total yards per game. The Dolphins rank eighth in scoring offense (24.9 points per game) and 25th in scoring defense (24.1 points allowed per game) this season.

The Dolphins sport the 21st-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (233.5 allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking second-best with 290.5 passing yards per game. The Dolphins have been a bottom-five run offense this season, ranking fifth-worst with 89.7 rushing yards per game. Defensively, they are ranked eighth in the NFL (110.5 rushing yards allowed per game).

The Dolphins are putting up a 38.7% third-down conversion rate on offense (22nd in the NFL), and they rank 24th defensively with a 41.8% third-down percentage allowed. The Dolphins have the 13th-ranked defense this season in terms of yards per play (5.4 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best with 6.3 yards per play. With 12 forced turnovers (24th in NFL) against 15 turnovers committed (16th in NFL), the Dolphins’ -3 turnover margin ranks 24th in the league.

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Chargers

From an offensive angle, the Chargers are compiling 351.2 total yards per contest (13th-ranked). They rank 26th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (371.7 total yards allowed per game). The Chargers have not been getting things done on defense, ranking third-worst with 25.8 points given up per game. They have been more productive offensively, compiling 22.7 points per contest (14th-ranked).

The Chargers rank sixth in the NFL with 266.5 passing yards per contest on offense, and they rank 19th with 220.0 passing yards surrendered per game on the defensive side of the ball. The Chargers have plenty of room to improve in the running game, as they rank second-worst in rushing yards per game (84.7) and fourth-worst in rushing yards surrendered per game (151.7).

The Chargers are posting a 42.0% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (11th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering a 43.8% third-down rate (25th-ranked) on defense. The Chargers’ defense has been struggling in terms of yards given up per play, ranking second-worst at 6.1. They have been more productive offensively, regstering 5.2 yards per play (20th-ranked). The Chargers have compiled 17 forced turnovers this season and have turned it over 13 times, leading to a +4 turnover margin, which ranks fifth-best in the NFL.

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Dolphins vs. Chargers Injury Report

Dolphins

Player Pos. Injury Status
Tua Tagovailoa QB Ankle Questionable
Myles Gaskin RB Shoulder Questionable
Teddy Bridgewater QB Knee Questionable
Terron Armstead OT Pectoral Questionable

Chargers

Player Pos. Injury Status
Corey Linsley C Concussion Questionable
Donald Parham TE Concussion Questionable
Mike Williams WR Ankle Questionable
Trey Pipkins OT Knee Questionable

Dolphins vs. Chargers Betting Analysis

Dolphins Betting Insights

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The Dolphins have covered the spread in a game four times this season (4-6-2). The Dolphins are 1-3-2 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites.

This season, six Dolphins games have gone over the point total. The Dolphins were favored on the moneyline seven total times last season. They went 5-2 in those games.

The Dolphins won all five games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -170 or shorter.

Chargers Betting Insights

The Chargers have covered the spread in a matchup six times this year (6-6-0). In games this year when an underdog by 3.5 points or more, the Chargers are 3-0 against the spread.

Games involving Chargers have hit the over five times this season. This season, the Chargers have been listed as the underdog in four games and failed to win any of those contests.

The Chargers have not won as an underdog of +145 or more on the moneyline this season in three such games.

Dolphins vs. Chargers Against The Spread & Betting Records

Dolphins

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.3 47.6 47.1
Implied Total AVG 26.3 26.8 25.8
ATS Record 4-6-2 3-2-1 1-4-1
Over/Under Record 6-6-0 1-5-0 5-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-1 4-0 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-3 1-1 1-2

Chargers

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.8 49.4 48.4
Implied Total AVG 26.7 27.2 26.3
ATS Record 6-6-0 2-3-0 4-3-0
Over/Under Record 5-6-1 3-2-0 2-4-1
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-2 2-2 4-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-4 0-1 0-3

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • Tyreek Hill’s 1,379 receiving yards this season (first in the NFL) have come from 96 receptions (first in the NFL) on 129 targets. He’s averaging 8.0 catches and 114.9 yards per game, with five receiving touchdowns.
  • Jaylen Waddle has 57 receptions for 972 yards (fifth in the NFL) and six TDs. In 12 games, he is averaging 4.8 catches and 81.0 yards per game.
  • Through 12 games, Jeff Wilson Jr. has amassed 680 yards on the ground, averaging 56.7 yards per game and scoring four touchdowns.
  • Wilson has received 26 targets in the passing game and has 16 catches (1.3 per game) for 149 yards (12.4 per game) and one TD.
  • In the ground game, Raheem Mostert averages 4.6 yards per attempt (19th in the NFL) and 52.1 yards per game for 573 total rushing yards. He has recorded three rushing touchdowns this season.
  • Mostert has been targeted 26 times to the tune of 17 catches, 119 yards and one TD.
  • On defense for the Dolphins, Jerome Baker has put up 72 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 3.0 sacks in 2022.
  • Christian Wilkins has 1.5 sacks to go with 11.0 TFL and 69 tackles.
  • Jevon Holland has totaled 62 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions this year. He’s fourth on the Dolphins in tackles.
  • This season, Bradley Chubb has 36 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 8.0 sacks.

Chargers

  • Justin Herbert is averaging 6.5 passing yards per attempt (26th in the NFL) and 278.3 yards per game this year, completing 66.7% of his passes on the way to 3,339 total yards (fourth in the NFL), 20 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and seven interceptions through 12 games.
  • Herbert has also rushed for 135 yards (third on the Chargers).
  • Austin Ekeler has 589 rushing yards (leading the Chargers) and seven rushing touchdowns, while averaging 49.1 yards per game and 4.3 per attempt (31st in the NFL).
  • Ekeler also has 85 catches for 564 yards (second on the Chargers), with five receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 105 times and averages 47.0 yards per game.
  • Josh Palmer has recorded 612 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 57 receptions, while being targeted 86 times on the season.
  • DeAndre Carter has been targeted 53 times, resulting in 39 catches for 466 yards .
  • Derwin James has intercepted one pass and also has 105 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and four passes defended in 2022.
  • Drue Tranquill has one interception on top of 101 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and two passes defended.
  • Khalil Mack has 37 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks in the 2022 season.
  • Bryce Callahan’s stat sheet includes three interceptions (10th in the NFL) as well as 40 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and six passes defended in 12 games

Dolphins vs. Chargers Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this contest is the Dolphins, and we expect that Dolphins will cover the spread (Dolphins -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 52 points.

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How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Chargers

You can bet on Dolphins vs. Chargers at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Dolphins vs. Chargers picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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