Bengals vs Dolphins Prediction: Week 4 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – September 2022

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A streaking Miami Dolphins (3-0) squad visits the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on Thursday, September 29, 2022 at Paycor Stadium. The Dolphins have come out on top in three games in a row.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bengals as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bengals have -195 odds to pick up the win, while the Dolphins are listed at +165 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 48 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bengals vs. Dolphins Live?

  • Game Day: Thursday, September 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:15 PM ET
  • TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Stadium: Paycor Stadium

Betting Preview

Bengals

The Bengals are totaling 338.7 yards per game on offense (20th in NFL), and they rank eighth on the other side of the ball with 310.7 yards allowed per game. The Bengals are totaling 21.3 points per game on offense, which ranks them 10th in the NFL. On defense, they rank ninth, allowing 18.3 points per game. Offensively, the Bengals rank 14th in the NFL with 241.7 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 14th in passing yards allowed per contest (224.7). The Bengals are averaging 97.0 rushing yards per game offensively this season (20th in NFL), and they are surrendering 86.0 rushing yards per game (eighth) on defense. The Bengals are averaging a 44.7% third-down conversion rate on offense (eighth in the NFL), and they rank 10th on the other side of the ball with a 32.6% third-down percentage allowed. The Bengals have been a bottom-five offense in terms of yards per play this season, ranking worst with 4.5 yards per play. Defensively, they rank seventh in the NFL (4.8 yards per play allowed). The Bengals have the 20th-ranked turnover margin in the league at -1, forcing five turnovers (seventh in NFL) while turning it over six times (25th in NFL).

Dolphins

The Dolphins’ defense has been bottom-five in total defense this season, allowing 413.7 total yards per game, which ranks second-worst. On offense, they rank 13th with 355.3 total yards per contest. From an offensive perspective, the Dolphins are accumulating 27.7 points per contest (eighth-ranked). They rank 16th in the NFL on defense (21.3 points allowed per game). The Dolphins rank second-worst in passing yards allowed per game (297.7), but at least they’ve been getting things done on the offensive side of the ball, ranking fourth-best in passing yards per contest (291.3). The Dolphins rank second-worst in rushing yards per game (64.0), but they’ve been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking 20th in the NFL with 116.0 rushing yards allowed per contest. Defensively, the Dolphins are a bottom-five unit on third down, allowing a 48.6% third-down conversion percentage (fourth-worst). On the bright side, they are dominating on the other side of the ball, producing a 48.6% third-down rate (fourth-best). The Dolphins’ offense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 6.4 yards per play. In terms of defense, they are allowing 6.3 yards per play, which ranks 27th. The Dolphins have a +2 turnover margin this season, which ranks sixth in the NFL.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Injury Report

Bengals

Bengals: OT La’el Collins: Questionable (Back), LB Germaine Pratt: Questionable (Knee), DT D.J. Reader: Out (Knee)

Dolphins

Dolphins: OT Terron Armstead: Questionable (Toe), CB Xavien Howard: Questionable (Groin), FB Brandon Jones: Questionable (Chest), DT Raekwon Davis: Questionable (Knee), WR Jaylen Waddle: Questionable (Groin), WR Cedrick Wilson: Questionable (Ribs), QB Tua Tagovailoa: Questionable (Back), TE Cethan Carter: Out (Head), TE Hunter Long: Out (Ankle)

Bengals vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis

Bengals Betting Insights

The Bengals have covered the spread once in three games with a set spread. The Bengals have an ATS record of 1-2 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites. This season, Bengals games have yet to hit the over once. The Bengals finished 5-3 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 62.5% of those games). The Bengals finished 2-1 last year (winning 66.7% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -195 or shorter.

Dolphins Betting Insights

The Dolphins have covered the spread three times this year (3-0-0). The Dolphins have a perfect 2-0 ATS record when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs. Games involving the Dolphins have hit the over once this year. The Dolphins have won both games they’ve played as underdogs this season. The Dolphins have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +165 moneyline set for this game.

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Bengals vs. Dolphins Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bengals

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.2 44.5 44.0
Implied Total AVG 25.7 26.0 25.5
ATS Record 1-2-0 0-1-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 0-3-0 0-1-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-2 0-1 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Dolphins

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.0 50.3 43.5
Implied Total AVG 26.0 27.0 24.0
ATS Record 3-0-0 2-0-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 1-2-0 0-2-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 1-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-0 1-0 1-0

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • Joe Burrow ranks 10th in the NFL with 812 passing yards through three games this year, averaging 270.7 per game with a 64.0% completion percentage and six touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against four interceptions.
  • He has added 73 rushing yards (24.3 per game) without a touchdown on the ground.
  • Ja’Marr Chase’s 212 receiving yards this season have come from 35 targets and 21 receptions (seventh in the NFL). He’s averaging 70.7 receiving yards and 7.0 catches per game, with two receiving touchdowns.
  • In the passing attack, Tyler Boyd, has contributed with 155 receiving yards and two touchdowns after grabbing 10 balls on 14 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 51.7 yards and 3.3 receptions in three games.
  • Joe Mixon has rushed for 163 yards without a TD on the ground (54.3 yards per game through three games).
  • He has added 13 catches (on 20 targets) for 103 receiving yards with zero touchdowns. He’s averaging 34.3 receiving yards and 4.3 receptions per game.
  • Over on defense, Trey Hendrickson has nine tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 2.5 sacks in 2022.
  • Vonn Bell has 18 tackles and 3.0 TFL this season. He’s second on the Bengals in tackles.
  • Mike Hilton has put up 20 tackles and 2.0 TFL so far this year.
  • So far this season, Chidobe Awuzie has 15 tackles. He’s fourth on the Bengals in tackles.

Dolphins

  • Through three games played this year, Tua Tagovailoa has amassed 925 passing yards (second-best in the NFL), while throwing eight touchdowns (third in the NFL) against two interceptions and completing 71.3% of his passes.
  • Jaylen Waddle has put together a 2022 campaign that includes 19 catches for 342 yards (second in the NFL) and three receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL) over three games played. He has been on the receiving end of 30 targets and is averaging 6.3 receptions per game.
  • Tyreek Hill has put up 317 receiving yards (third in the NFL) and two touchdowns on 21 receptions (seventh in the NFL), while being targeted 29 times on the season.
  • Chase Edmonds averages 26.3 rushing yards per game over three games (79 total yards), with two rushing touchdowns.
  • Edmonds also has 54 receiving yards (18.0 per game) on six catches (2.0 per game). He has been targeted eight times while he is still looking for his first receiving touchdown.
  • Jevon Holland’s 2022 output includes 15 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in three games. He is fifth on the Dolphins in tackles.
  • Brandon Jones has 24 tackles, 1.0 sack, and two passes defended.
  • Melvin Ingram has 2.0 sacks (first on the Dolphins) in addition to his 2.0 TFL and seven tackles.
  • Jerome Baker has put up 0.5 sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) to go with 1.0 TFL and 21 tackles through three games.

Bengals vs. Dolphins Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Dolphins, and we project that Dolphins will cover the spread (Bengals -3.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 48 points.

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How to Bet on Bengals vs. Dolphins

You can bet on Bengals vs. Dolphins at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bengals vs. Dolphins picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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