Bears vs Dolphins Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 9 – November 2022

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Sunday, November 6, 2022 will see the Miami Dolphins (5-3) hit the road to square off against the Chicago Bears (3-5) at Soldier Field.

Dolphins vs. Bears Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 4 points, with bookmakers listing the Dolphins as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Dolphins have -200 odds to pick up the win, while the Bears are listed at +170 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 45.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Dolphins vs. Bears Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Chicago, Illinois
  • Stadium: Soldier Field

Betting Preview

Dolphins

The Dolphins rank seventh in total offense (380.6 yards per game) and 23rd in total defense (362.8 yards allowed per game) this year. The Dolphins are averaging 22.3 points per game on offense, which ranks them 16th in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 22nd, allowing 24.0 points per game.

The Dolphins rank 26th in pass defense this season (262.1 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on offense, ranking third-best in the NFL with 292.5 passing yards per game. The Dolphins have been a bottom-five run offense this season, ranking fifth-worst with 88.1 rushing yards per contest. On the defensive side of the ball, they are ranked sixth in the NFL (100.6 rushing yards allowed per game).

The Dolphins are putting up a 40.4% third-down conversion rate on offense this season (15th in NFL), and they are giving up a 41.8% third-down percentage (24th) on the defensive side of the ball. The Dolphins sport the 26th-ranked defense this year in terms of yards per play (5.9 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking third-best with 6.2 yards per play. With seven forced turnovers (27th in NFL) against 10 turnovers committed (15th in NFL), the Dolphins’ -3 turnover margin ranks 23rd in the league.

Bears

From an offensive angle, the Bears are accumulating 315.4 total yards per contest (27th-ranked). They rank 16th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (344.0 total yards surrendered per game). In terms of points scored the Bears rank 23rd in the NFL (19.4 points per game), and they are 18th on the other side of the ball (22.6 points allowed per game).

Offensively, the Bears are a bottom-five passing attack, posting only 126.9 passing yards per game (worst). On the bright side, they are dominating on the other side of the ball, allowing just 188.0 passing yards per contest (fifth-best). Defensively, the Bears are a bottom-five run unit, allowing 156.0 rushing yards per game (second-worst). On the bright side, they are dominating on the other side of the ball, accumulating 188.5 rushing yards per contest (best).

The Bears have been struggling on third down, ranking second-worst with a 50.5% third-down conversion percentage allowed per game. They have been more productive on offense, posting a 40.6% third-down rate (13th-ranked). From an offensive angle, the Bears are accumulating 5.3 yards per play (19th-ranked). They rank 19th in the NFL on defense (5.7 yards surrendered per play). With 13 forced turnovers (sixth in NFL) and 12 turnovers committed (22nd in NFL) this season, the Bears rank 13th in the NFL with a turnover margin of +1.

Dolphins vs. Bears Injury Report

Dolphins

Player Pos. Injury Status
River Cracraft WR Illness Out
Jaelan Phillips LB Quad Questionable
Terron Armstead OT Toe Questionable
Tanner Conner TE Knee Questionable

Bears

Player Pos. Injury Status

Dolphins vs. Bears Betting Analysis

Dolphins Betting Insights

The Dolphins have gone 3-4-1 against the spread this season. The Dolphins have yet to cover the spread (0-1-1) when playing as at least 4-point favorites.

This season, three Dolphins games have gone over the point total. The Dolphins won 71.4% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (5-2).

The Dolphins won all three games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -200 or shorter.

Bears Betting Insights

The Bears have covered the spread in a game three times this season (3-5-0). In games they have played as 4-point underdogs or more, the Bears have an ATS record of 3-2.

Games involving Bears have hit the over four times this year. This season, the Bears have won two out of the seven games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Bears have entered five games this season as the underdog by +170 or more and are 2-3 in those contests.

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Dolphins vs. Bears Against The Spread & Betting Records

Dolphins

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.5 47.4 47.6
Implied Total AVG 26.0 26.0 26.0
ATS Record 3-4-1 2-2-0 1-2-1
Over/Under Record 3-5-0 0-4-0 3-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 2-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-2 1-1 1-1

Bears

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 40.6 39.0 41.5
Implied Total AVG 23.4 21.3 24.6
ATS Record 3-5-0 1-2-0 2-3-0
Over/Under Record 4-4-0 1-2-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-0 1-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-5 1-1 1-4

Players to Watch

Dolphins

  • Tua Tagovailoa has passed for 1,678 yards, 12 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) and three interceptions this year. He is averaging 279.7 yards per game and 9.0 per attempt, while completing 69.9% of his passes.
  • Tyreek Hill has caught 69 passes (first in the NFL) on 92 targets for 961 total yards (first in the NFL) and two touchdowns. He is averaging 8.6 catches and 120.1 yards per game in eight games.
  • Jaylen Waddle has five touchdown catches this season (fifth in the NFL), and has 42 catches for 727 yards (fourth in the NFL) on 62 targets, while averaging 5.3 catches and 90.9 yards per game.
  • Raheem Mostert has rushed for 452 yards with one touchdown (56.5 yards per game in eight games).
  • He’s added 13 catches (on 20 targets) for 97 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 12.1 receiving yards and 1.6 receptions per game.
  • On defense, Jevon Holland has two interceptions to go with 45 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and five passes defended in 2022.
  • Bradley Chubb has 5.5 sacks (first on the Dolphins) in addition to his 2.0 TFL and 27 tackles.
  • Jerome Baker has totaled 42 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks this year.
  • This season, Elandon Roberts has 46 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks.

Bears

  • Justin Fields is averaging 7.5 passing yards per attempt (14th in the NFL) and 149.9 yards per game this year, completing 58.5% of his passes on the way to 1,199 total yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions through eight games.
  • He’s added 424 yards on the ground (second on the Bears), while scoring three rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 53.0 yards per game and 5.6 per attempt.
  • Khalil Herbert has scored four rushing touchdowns, while totaling 564 rushing yards (6.2 per attempt and 70.5 per game).
  • Herbert has also collected 62 receiving yards (7.8 per game) on six catches (0.8 per game). He’s been targeted seven times and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • David Montgomery is averaging 51.6 rushing yards per game this season (361 total yards), while scoring two rushing touchdowns.
  • Montgomery’s stat sheet includes 13 receptions (1.9 per game) on 14 targets for 135 yards (19.3 per game), though he has not found the end zone through the air.
  • Chase Claypool has been targeted 50 times, resulting in 32 catches for 311 yards .
  • Eddie Jackson has intercepted four passes and also has 58 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and four passes defended in 2022. He’s second in the NFL in interceptions.
  • Jaquan Brisker’s stats include one interception as well as 51 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 3.0 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • Nicholas Morrow has 55 tackles and 3.0 TFL in the 2022 season.
  • Kyler Gordon has 40 tackles and one interception.

Dolphins vs. Bears Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Dolphins, and we predict that Bears will cover the spread (Dolphins -4). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 45.5 points.

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How to Bet on Dolphins vs. Bears

You can bet on Dolphins vs. Bears at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Dolphins vs. Bears picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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