Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction: Week 3 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – September 2022

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Lucas Oil Stadium is where the Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) will square off against the Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) on Sunday, September 25, 2022.

Chiefs vs. Colts Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 5.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -240 odds to pick up the win, while the Colts are listed at +200 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 50.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Colts Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, September 25, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
  • Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium

Betting Preview

Chiefs

Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit, ranking fifth-best in the NFL by averaging 403.5 yards per game. They rank 19th on defense (341.5 yards allowed per game). The Chiefs rank 18th in scoring defense this year (22.5 points allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 35.5 points per game. The Chiefs rank sixth in pass offense (293.0 passing yards per game) and 23rd in pass defense (252.5 passing yards allowed per game) this year. The Chiefs rank 16th in run offense (110.5 rushing yards per game) and 11th in run defense (89.0 rushing yards allowed per game) this season. The Chiefs rank 10th in third-down efficiency (45.0%) on offense and sixth in third-down conversion rate allowed (28.6%) on defense this year. On the offensive side of the ball, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking second-best in the NFL by compiling 6.7 yards per play. They rank ninth on defense (5.0 yards per play allowed). With one forced turnover (23rd in NFL) against one turnover committed (first in NFL), the Chiefs’ even turnover margin ranks 16th in the league.

Colts

The Colts are generating 367.5 total yards per game on offense this season (13th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 315.0 total yards per game (11th-ranked). The Colts rank worst in points per game (10.0), but they’ve been more productive defensively, ranking 16th in the NFL with 22.0 points ceded per contest. In terms of passing, the Colts rank 10th in the NFL (252.0 passing yards per game) and 15th on defense (228.5 passing yards allowed per contest). The Colts are accumulating 115.5 rushing yards per contest on offense this season (12th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 86.5 rushing yards per contest (ninth-ranked) on defense. The Colts are posting a 32.0% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (23rd-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up a 36.7% third-down rate (15th-ranked) on defense. With 5.3 yards per play on offense, the Colts rank 17th in the NFL. On defense they rank sixth, surrendering 4.7 yards per play. The Colts own a bottom-five turnover margin this season, second-worst at -4.

Chiefs vs. Colts Injury Report

Chiefs

Chiefs: K Harrison Butker: Out (Ankle), LB Willie Gay Jr.: Out (Suspension), DE Michael Danna: Out (Calf)

Colts

Colts: P Rigoberto Sanchez: Out (Achilles), OT Bernhard Raimann: Out (Ankle), LB Darius Leonard: Out (Back), DE Yannick Ngakoue: Questionable (Back)

Chiefs vs. Colts Betting Analysis

Chiefs Betting Insights

The Chiefs are 1-1-0 against the spread this season. In games they have played as 5.5-point favorites or more, the Chiefs have a perfect ATS record of 1-0. Games involving the Chiefs have hit the over once this season. The Chiefs won 70.6% of the games last season when they were favored on the moneyline (12-5). When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -240 or shorter, the Chiefs went 9-2 (81.8%).

Colts Betting Insights

The Colts are winless against the spread this season (0-2-0). Colts games have yet to go over the total once this season. This is the first time the Colts will play as underdogs this season. The Colts have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +200 moneyline set for this game.

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Chiefs vs. Colts Against The Spread & Betting Records

Chiefs

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.3 52.5 54.0
Implied Total AVG 29.0 28.0 30.0
ATS Record 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-0-0
Over/Under Record 1-1-0 0-1-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-0 1-0 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Colts

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.8 44.8
Implied Total AVG 25.0 25.0
ATS Record 0-2-0 0-0-0 0-2-0
Over/Under Record 0-2-0 0-0-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1-1 0-0 0-1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes II ranks seventh in the NFL with 595 passing yards through two games this year, averaging 297.5 per game with a 73.0% completion percentage and seven touchdowns (first in the NFL) against zero interceptions.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing statline this season includes 116 yards but no touchdowns. He’s averaging 58.0 yards per game and 7.7 per attempt (fourth in the NFL).
  • He’s also caught seven passes (on seven targets) for 76 receiving yards with two touchdowns. He’s averaging 38.0 receiving yards and 3.5 catches per game.
  • In two games played, Travis Kelce is averaging 86.0 yards and 6.5 receptions per game on the way to 172 receiving yards and 13 catches. He’s been targeted 16 times, and has one receiving touchdown.
  • Isaih Pacheco has run for 68 yards, averaging 34.0 yards per game and scoring one touchdown.
  • On the defensive side, L’Jarius Sneed has 16 tackles, 1.0 sack, and one pass defended in 2022.
  • Chris Jones has four tackles, 2.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two passes defended.
  • Nick Bolton has totaled 20 tackles.
  • This season, Jaylen Watson has four tackles and one interception.

Colts

  • Jonathan Taylor has rushed for one touchdown this year, and has put up 215 total rushing yards (107.5 per game and 5.4 per carry).
  • On top of his impact in the run game, Taylor has caught five passes (on eight targets) for 23 yards (ninth on the Colts). He’s averaging 11.5 yards per game.
  • Michael Pittman Jr. has nine catches for 121 yards and one receiving touchdown. He has been targeted 13 times and averages 9.0 receptions per game through one game played.
  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 547 yards this year, one touchdown and four interceptions. He is completing 60.0% of his passes while averaging 273.5 yards per game and 6.8 per attempt.
  • Ashton Dulin has 125 receiving yards from eight receptions after receiving 13 targets.
  • So far in 2022, Bobby Okereke has put up 18 tackles and 1.0 TFL through two games.
  • E.J. Speed’s stat sheet includes 12 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack.
  • Zaire Franklin has 18 tackles and 1.0 TFL in the 2022 season. He leads the Colts in tackles.
  • Kwity Paye has registered 2.0 sacks (first on the Colts) to go with 1.0 TFL and 10 tackles over two games.

Chiefs vs. Colts Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this matchup is the Chiefs, and we predict that Chiefs will cover the spread (Chiefs -5.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 50.5 points.

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How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Colts

You can bet on Chiefs vs. Colts at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Chiefs vs. Colts picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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