Texans vs Chiefs Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 15 – December 18, 2022

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The Houston Texans (1-11-1), who are in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, head into a tilt against the Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) on Sunday, December 18, 2022 at NRG Stadium.

Chiefs vs. Texans Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 14 points, with bookmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -950 odds to pick up the win, while the Texans are listed at +650 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 49 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Texans Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, December 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • Stadium: NRG Stadium

Betting Preview


The Chiefs have the 15th-ranked defense this season (341.6 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking best with 423.8 yards per game. The Chiefs sport the 18th-ranked defense this season (22.9 points allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking second-best with 29.5 points per game.

The Chiefs rank 22nd in pass defense this year (235.5 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 309.2 passing yards per game. Offensively, the Chiefs rank 18th in the NFL with 114.6 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank sixth in rushing yards allowed per contest (106.2).

Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking best in the NFL by putting up a 51.3% third-down percentage. They rank 20th on defense (40.0% third-down percentage allowed). The Chiefs have the 13th-ranked defense this year in terms of yards per play (5.4 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking best with 6.5 yards per play. The Chiefs own the 27th-ranked turnover margin in the league at -5, forcing 14 turnovers (23rd in NFL) while turning it over 19 times (26th in NFL).

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This season has been difficult for the Texans on both offense and defense, as they are putting up only 283.0 total yards per game (second-worst) and surrendering 380.2 total yards per game (fourth-worst). The Texans have been struggling on offense, ranking third-worst in the NFL with 16.2 points per game. They have been more effective on defense, giving up 24.2 points per contest (26th-ranked).

With 193.1 passing yards per game on offense, the Texans rank 26th in the NFL. On defense, they rank 14th, surrendering 214.4 passing yards per contest. The Texans have been outplayed on both sides of the ball in terms of rushing this season, ranking fifth-worst in rushing yards (89.9 per game) and worst in rushing yards allowed (165.8 per game).

The Texans’ offense has not been getting things done on third down, ranking second-worst in the NFL with a 28.3% third-down conversion rate. They have been better defensively, giving up a 39.5% third-down rate (16th-ranked). The Texans rank second-worst in yards per play (4.8), but they’ve been more productive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 20th in the NFL with 5.7 yards allowed per play. The Texans have registered 17 forced turnovers (10th in NFL) and committed 22 turnovers (31st in NFL) this season for a -5 turnover margin that ranks 27th in the NFL.

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Chiefs vs. Texans Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Isaih Pacheco RB Quad Probable
Patrick Mahomes II QB Right hand Probable
Kadarius Toney WR Hamstring Questionable
Mecole Hardman WR Abdomen Questionable
Deon Bush DB Elbow Probable
Jaylen Watson CB Hand Probable
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Toe Probable
L’Jarius Sneed CB Calf Probable
Lucas Niang OT Knee Probable
Nick Bolton LB Groin Probable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Dameon Pierce RB Ankle Out
Brandin Cooks WR Calf Questionable
Derek Stingley Jr. DB Hamstring Questionable
Laremy Tunsil OT Illness Questionable
Justin McCray OG Hamstring Questionable
Troy Hairston II FB Chest Probable
Nico Collins WR Foot Questionable
Taylor Stallworth DT Calf Questionable
Steven Nelson DB Ankle Questionable

Chiefs vs. Texans Betting Analysis

Chiefs Betting Insights

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The Chiefs have covered the spread four times over 13 games with a set spread. The Chiefs are winless against the spread when they have played as 14-point favorites or more (0-1-1).

Chiefs games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under six times this season. The Chiefs won 12 of the 17 games they were the moneyline favorite last season (70.6%).

The Chiefs did not play a game last season with moneyline odds of -950 or shorter.

Texans Betting Insights

The Texans have put together a 6-6-1 record against the spread this year. The Texans are 2-0-1 ATS when playing as at least 14-point underdogs.

Games involving Texans have hit the over five times this year. The Texans have entered the game as underdogs 13 times this season and won once.

The Texans have been at least a +650 moneyline underdog two times this season, but lost all of those games.

Chiefs vs. Texans Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.8 49.4 50.1
Implied Total AVG 28.2 29.2 27.4
ATS Record 4-8-1 1-4-1 3-4-0
Over/Under Record 6-7-0 1-5-0 5-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 9-2 5-0 4-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-1 1-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.9 43.9 43.9
Implied Total AVG 26.2 25.5 26.7
ATS Record 6-6-1 2-4-0 4-2-1
Over/Under Record 5-8-0 2-4-0 3-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-0 0-0 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-11-1 0-5-1 1-6

Players to Watch


  • Patrick Mahomes II ranks first in the NFL with 4,160 passing yards in 13 games this year, averaging 320.0 per game with a 65.8% completion percentage and 33 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against 11 interceptions.
  • He has tacked on 280 rushing yards (21.5 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
  • Travis Kelce‘s 1,039 receiving yards this season (fifth in the NFL) have come from 117 targets and 81 receptions (seventh in the NFL). He’s averaging 79.9 receiving yards and 6.2 catches per game, with 12 receiving touchdowns (first in the NFL).
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has three touchdown catches this season, and has 61 catches for 762 yards on 82 targets, while averaging 5.1 catches and 63.5 yards per game.
  • Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 591 yards with three touchdowns (45.5 yards per game across 13 games).
  • Over on defense, Nick Bolton has 129 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions in 2022. His tackle total leads the Chiefs and is fourth in the NFL.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has 89 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and two interceptions this season.
  • This season, Chris Jones has recorded 11.0 sacks (fifth in the NFL) as well as 11.0 TFL and 32 tackles.
  • So far this season, Willie Gay Jr. has 62 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one interception.


  • In 11 games played this year, Davis Mills has totaled 2,319 passing yards, with 11 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and completing 62.8% of his passes.
  • He’s added 40 yards on the ground (fourth on the Texans), while scoring one rushing touchdown. He’s averaging 3.6 yards per game and 2.2 per attempt.
  • Chris Moore has 438 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 37 receptions, while being targeted 51 times.
  • In 11 games played this season, Jordan Akins has 25 catches (2.3 receptions per game on 3.1 targets per game) for 326 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
  • Rex Burkhead puts up 6.7 rushing yards per game through 12 games (80 total yards), but has not yet scored a rushing touchdown.
  • Burkhead also has 169 receiving yards (14.1 per game) on 29 catches (2.4 per game). He has been targeted 38 times with one touchdown reception.
  • In 2022, Jalen Pitre has 1.0 sack to go with 5.0 TFL, 105 tackles, and three interceptions through 13 games.
  • Christian Kirksey has one interception on top of 95 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and four passes defended.
  • Jonathan Owens has 102 tackles in the 2022 campaign.
  • Desmond King II has intercepted one pass in addition to 66 tackles, 7.0 TFL, and seven passes defended.

Chiefs vs. Texans Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Chiefs, and we predict that Chiefs will cover the spread (Chiefs -14). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 49 points.

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How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Texans

You can bet on Chiefs vs. Texans at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Chiefs vs. Texans picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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