The Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) go on the road in the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) in the AFC Divisional round on Saturday, January 21, 2023 at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Odds
The spread for this matchup is set at 9 points, with bookmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.
As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -450 odds to pick up the win, while the Jaguars are listed at +360 to claim victory.
Finally, the total for the game is set at 53 points.
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Jaguars Live?
- Game Day: Saturday, January 21, 2023
- Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
- TV Channel: NBC
- Location: Kansas City, Missouri
- Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs sport the 11th-ranked defense this season (328.2 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking best with 413.6 yards per game. The Chiefs rank 16th in scoring defense this season (21.7 points allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 29.2 points per game.
Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of passing yards, ranking best in the NFL by totaling 297.8 per game. They rank 18th on defense (220.9 passing yards allowed per game). The Chiefs rank 20th in run offense (115.9 rushing yards per game) and eighth in run defense (107.2 rushing yards allowed per game) this season.
The Chiefs rank 13th in third-down defense this season (38.3% third-down conversion rate allowed), but they’ve been shining on offense, ranking second-best in the NFL with a 48.7% third-down conversion rate. On offense, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking best in the NFL by averaging 6.4 yards per play. They rank seventh on defense (5.1 yards per play allowed). With 20 forced turnovers (20th in NFL) against 23 turnovers committed (17th in NFL), the Chiefs’ -3 turnover margin ranks 22nd in the league.
With 357.4 total yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL in 2022. On defense, they rank 24th, giving up 353.3 total yards per contest. From an offensive standpoint, the Jaguars are compiling 23.8 points per game (10th-ranked). They rank 12th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (20.6 points allowed per game).
The Jaguars rank 10th in passing yards per game (232.9), but they’ve been less productive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking fifth-worst in the NFL with 238.5 passing yards allowed per contest. From an offensive perspective, the Jaguars are posting 124.5 rushing yards per contest (14th-ranked). They rank 12th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (114.8 rushing yards allowed per game).
The Jaguars’ defense has been bottom-five on third down this season, ceding a 43.2% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. On the offensive side of the ball, they rank ninth with a 43.2% third-down rate. From an offensive angle, the Jaguars are accumulating 5.7 yards per play (seventh-ranked). They rank 15th in the NFL on defense (5.4 yards allowed per play). After forcing 27 turnovers (fourth in NFL) and turning the ball over 22 times (14th in NFL) this season, the Jaguars own the seventh-ranked turnover margin of +5.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Injury Report
|Jody Fortson Jr.||TE||Elbow||Questionable|
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Betting Analysis
Chiefs Betting Insights
The Chiefs have covered the spread six times this season (6-10-1). The Chiefs have an ATS record of 2-4-1 when playing as at least 9-point favorites.
Games involving the Chiefs have hit the over eight times this season. The Chiefs won 70.6% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (12-5).
The Chiefs won all four games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -450 or shorter.
Jaguars Betting Insights
The Jaguars’ record against the spread in the regular season was 8-9-0, and in the playoffs it is 1-0-0. The Jaguars don’t have a win ATS (0-1) as 9-point underdogs or more in the regular season and playoffs.
The Jaguars had eight of their 17 games hit the over in the regular season, and one of one in the playoffs.
The Jaguars have not been bigger underdogs, including the regular season and postseason, than their +360 moneyline odds in this game.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Against The Spread & Betting Records
|Point Total AVG||49.6||49.1||50.1|
|Implied Total AVG||28.6||29.3||28.1|
|Moneyline Favorite Record||13-2||7-0||6-2|
|Moneyline Underdog Record||1-1||0-1||1-0|
|Point Total AVG||44.0||43.7||44.3||46.5|
|Implied Total AVG||24.1||23.6||24.4||25.0|
|Moneyline Favorite Record||2-2||1-2||1-0||0-0|
|Moneyline Underdog Record||7-6||4-1||3-5||1-0|
Players to Watch
- Patrick Mahomes II has 5,250 passing yards (first in the NFL), 41 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and 12 interceptions this year. He has completed 67.1% of his passes, averaging 308.8 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt.
- He has tacked on 358 rushing yards (21.1 per game) and four touchdowns on the ground.
- Travis Kelce has 110 catches (third in the NFL) for 1,338 yards (eighth in the NFL) and 12 TDs. Through 17 games, he is averaging 6.5 catches and 78.7 yards per game.
- Jerick McKinnon has 291 rushing yards with one touchdown (17.1 yards per game across 17 games).
- McKinnon has 56 receptions on 71 targets for 512 yards, with nine receiving TDs.
- Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 830 yards with five touchdowns (48.8 yards per game in 17 games).
- On defense for the Chiefs, Nick Bolton has racked up 179 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions in 2022.
- L’Jarius Sneed has 107 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and three interceptions this season.
- Chris Jones has put up 44 tackles, 16.0 TFL, and 15.5 sacks this year.
- Willie Gay Jr. has 2.5 sacks as well as 9.0 TFL, 87 tackles, and one interception on the year.
- Trevor Lawrence is averaging 7.0 passing yards per attempt (18th in the NFL) and 241.9 yards per game this year, completing 66.3% of his passes on the way to 4,113 total yards (ninth in the NFL), 25 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) and eight interceptions through 17 games.
- Lawrence has also rushed for five touchdowns and 291 yards (second on the Jaguars).
- Travis Etienne has scored five rushing touchdowns, while totaling 1,125 rushing yards (5.1 per carry and 66.2 per game).
- Etienne has added 35 receptions (2.1 per game) for 316 yards (18.6 per game), without a receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 45 times in the passing game.
- In 17 games played this season, Christian Kirk has 84 catches (4.9 receptions per game on 7.8 targets per game) for 1,108 yards and eight receiving touchdowns.
- Zay Jones has been targeted 121 times, resulting in 82 catches for 823 yards .
- Foyesade Oluokun has put up 2.0 sacks to go with 11.0 TFL and 184 tackles over 17 games in 2022.
- Rayshawn Jenkins has 112 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and three interceptions. He is third on the Jaguars in tackles.
- Josh Allen has 6.0 sacks (first on the Jaguars) in addition to his 9.0 TFL and 58 tackles.
- Devin Lloyd’s season stats include 113 tackles and three interceptions through 17 games. He is second on the Jaguars in tackles.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Predictions and Pick
Our pick to win this game is the Chiefs, and we predict that Jaguars will cover the spread (Chiefs -9). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 53 points.
How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Jaguars
You can bet on Chiefs vs. Jaguars at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.
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