Buccaneers vs Chiefs Prediction: Week 4 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – October 2022

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The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) go on the road to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1), leaders of the NFC South, at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 2, 2022.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1 point, with bookmakers listing the Buccaneers as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Buccaneers have -115 odds to pick up the win, while the Chiefs are listed at -105 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 46 points.


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Game Info

How to Watch Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, October 2, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NBC
  • Location: Tampa, Florida
  • Stadium: Raymond James Stadium

Betting Preview


On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers have been a top-five unit, ranking fourth-best by giving up only 289.0 yards per game. They rank 27th on offense (297.3 yards per game). Defensively, the Buccaneers have been a top-five unit, ranking best by giving up just 9.0 points per game. They rank 22nd on offense (17.0 points per game). The Buccaneers rank 22nd in pass offense (211.3 passing yards per game) and 12th in pass defense (209.0 passing yards allowed per game) this year. The Buccaneers sport the 25th-ranked offense this year in terms of rushing yards (86.0 per game), and they’ve been more effective on defense, ranking fifth-best with only 80.0 rushing yards allowed per game. While the Buccaneers’ third-down defense ranks sixth with a 30.2% third-down percentage allowed per game, they’ve been less successful on offense, ranking fifth-worst with a 28.6% third-down percentage. This season, the Buccaneers are gaining 4.8 yards per play on offense (26th in the league), while featuring the third-best yards per play on defense in the NFL (4.5). The Buccaneers have forced eight total turnovers (first in NFL) this season and have turned it over four times (15th in NFL) for a turnover margin of +4, the third-best in the NFL.


The Chiefs are compiling 374.0 total yards per game on offense this season (seventh-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 314.0 total yards per contest (ninth-ranked). The Chiefs’ defense ranks 16th in the NFL with 21.7 points allowed per contest, but they’ve been carried by their offense, which ranks fourth-best by accumulating 29.3 points per game. The Chiefs are putting up 281.0 passing yards per contest on offense this season (sixth-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 227.3 passing yards per contest (14th-ranked) on defense. The Chiefs rank 21st in the NFL with 93.0 rushing yards per game on offense, and they rank ninth with 86.7 rushing yards ceded per contest on defense. In terms of third-down efficiency, the Chiefs rank 12th in the NFL (40.0% third-down conversion rate) and 11th defensively (32.6% third-down rate allowed). The Chiefs have been top-five on both offense and defense this season, as they rank fourth-best in yards per play (6.2) and fifth-best in yards surrendered per play (4.6). After forcing two turnovers (28th in NFL) and turning the ball over three times (seventh in NFL) this season, the Chiefs own the 21st-ranked turnover margin of -1.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Injury Report


Buccaneers: WR Breshad Perriman: Doubtful (Knee), FB Akiem Hicks: Out (Foot), WR Chris Godwin: Questionable (Hamstring), WR Julio Jones: Questionable (Knee), OT Donovan Smith: Questionable (Elbow), WR Russell Gage: Questionable (Hamstring)


Chiefs: K Harrison Butker: Out (Ankle), DE Michael Danna: Out (Calf), DE Joshua Kaindoh: Questionable (Illness), WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Questionable (Abdomen)

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis

Buccaneers Betting Insights

The Buccaneers have put together a record of 2-1-0 against the spread this season. The Buccaneers have an ATS record of 2-1 when playing as at least 1-point favorites. This season, Buccaneers games have yet to hit the over once. The Buccaneers won 76.5% of the games last season when they were the moneyline favorite (13-4). When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -115 or shorter, the Buccaneers had a record of 13-3 (81.2%).

Chiefs Betting Insights

The Chiefs have put together a record of 1-2-0 against the spread this season. Games involving the Chiefs have hit the over once this season. This is the first time the Chiefs will play as underdogs this season. The Chiefs have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the -105 odds on them winning this game.


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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.0 42.0 46.5
Implied Total AVG 23.7 22.0 24.5
ATS Record 2-1-0 0-1-0 2-0-0
Over/Under Record 0-3-0 0-1-0 0-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 0-1 2-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 52.5 52.5 52.5
Implied Total AVG 28.7 28.0 29.0
ATS Record 1-2-0 0-1-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 1-2-0 0-1-0 1-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-1 1-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Players to Watch


  • Tom Brady has 673 passing yards in three games this year, averaging 224.3 per game with a 65.0% completion percentage and three touchdowns against one interception.
  • Leonard Fournette averages 4.0 yards per carry (35th in the NFL) and 75.7 yards per game, and has 227 total rushing yards (10th in the NFL). He has not yet scored a rushing TD this season.
  • Fournette’s 12 targets in the passing game have turned into nine catches (3.0 per game) for 54 yards (18.0 per game) and zero touchdowns.
  • In two games played, Mike Evans is averaging 66.0 yards and 4.0 receptions per game on the way to 132 receiving yards and eight catches. He’s been targeted 11 times, and has one receiving touchdown.
  • Russell Gage averages 6.3 receptions and 42.7 yards per game, and has 128 total receiving yards and 19 catches. He’s gotten 21 total targets, and has caught one touchdown pass.
  • On the defensive side, Devin White has 3.0 sacks (eighth in the NFL) to go with 1.0 TFL and 24 tackles in 2022.
  • Mike Edwards has 1.0 TFL, 21 tackles, and one interception.
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. has put up 19 tackles, 1.0 sack, and one interception this year. He’s third on the Buccaneers in tackles.
  • So far this season, Shaquil Barrett has 12 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 2.0 sacks.


  • Patrick Mahomes II has passed for 857 yards this year (to rank ninth in the NFL), with eight touchdowns (third in the NFL) and one interception. He is completing 67.9% of his passes while averaging 285.7 yards per game and 7.9 per attempt.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has scored one rushing touchdown, while totaling 116 rushing yards (5.3 per attempt and 38.7 per game).
  • Edwards-Helaire also has 12 catches for 115 yards (third on the Chiefs), with two receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 12 times and averages 38.3 yards per game.
  • This season, Travis Kelce has caught 17 passes for 230 receiving yards with two touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 24 total times and is averaging 5.7 receptions per game over three games played.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has 14 catches for 178 yards without a receiving touchdown. He averages 4.7 yards per game through three games and has been targeted 19 times.
  • Nick Bolton has put up 2.0 sacks (first on the Chiefs) to go with 1.0 TFL and 29 tackles through three games so far in 2022.
  • L’Jarius Sneed’s stat sheet includes 23 tackles, 2.0 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • Jaylen Watson has 1.0 TFL, 10 tackles, and one interception.
  • Chris Jones’ stat sheet includes six tackles, 3.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two passes defended in three games

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Buccaneers, and we expect that Buccaneers will cover the spread (Buccaneers -1). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 46 points.


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How to Bet on Buccaneers vs. Chiefs

You can bet on Buccaneers vs. Chiefs at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Buccaneers vs. Chiefs picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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