Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: Week 17 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 1, 2023

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The Kansas City Chiefs (12-3), who have claimed victory in three consecutive games, enter into a tilt against the Denver Broncos (4-11) on Sunday, January 1, 2023 at Arrowhead Stadium.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 12.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -720 odds to pick up the win, while the Broncos are listed at +520 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 45 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Broncos Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 1, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium

Betting Preview


The Chiefs own the 15th-ranked defense this season (332.9 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective offensively, ranking best with 420.6 yards per game. Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit, ranking second-best in the NFL by compiling 29.2 points per game. They rank 15th on defense (22.1 points allowed per game).

The Chiefs rank 20th in pass defense this year (225.7 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 303.5 passing yards per game. The Chiefs are totaling 117.1 rushing yards per game on offense this season (17th in NFL), and they are allowing 107.1 rushing yards per game (eighth) on defense.

The Chiefs have the 12th-ranked defense this year in terms of third-down efficiency (38.1% third-down conversion rate allowed), and they’ve been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking best with a 49.7% third-down conversion rate. The Chiefs rank 11th in yards per play allowed this year (5.2), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 6.4 yards per play. The Chiefs have forced 16 total turnovers (22nd in NFL) this season and have turned it over 21 times (24th in NFL) to record a turnover margin of -5, the fifth-worst in the league.

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The Broncos have been excelling on the defensive side of the ball, giving up just 314.3 total yards per contest (fifth-best). On offense, they rank 25th by piling up 316.6 total yards per game. The Broncos’ offense has been bottom-five this season, posting 15.5 points per game, which ranks worst in the NFL. Defensively, they rank seventh with 20.3 points allowed per contest.

In terms of passing, the Broncos rank 20th in the NFL (209.1 passing yards per game) and sixth on defense (196.9 passing yards allowed per game). The Broncos are posting 107.5 rushing yards per game on offense this season (23rd-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 117.4 rushing yards per contest (16th-ranked) on defense.

The Broncos rank worst in third-down conversion rate (28.6%), but at least they’ve been dominating on defense, ranking fourth-best in third-down rate allowed (33.5%). The Broncos have been dominant on defense in terms of yards per play, surrendering just 4.9 (fourth-best). Offensively, they rank 25th in the NFL by putting up 5.0 yards per play. At -1, the Broncos sport the 17th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL, with 19 forced turnovers (17th in NFL) and 20 turnovers committed (19th in NFL).

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Chiefs vs. Broncos Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Prince Tega Wanogho OT Illness Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Kendall Hinton WR Hamstring Questionable
Courtland Sutton WR Hamstring Questionable
Jerry Jeudy WR Ankle Questionable
D.J. Jones DT Knee Questionable
Randy Gregory OLB Knee Questionable
Dalton Risner OG Foot Probable
Calvin Anderson OT Ankle Questionable
Greg Dulcich TE Hamstring Questionable
Baron Browning LB Back Questionable
K’Waun Williams CB Knee Questionable

Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Analysis

Chiefs Betting Insights

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The Chiefs have covered the spread in a matchup five times this season (5-9-1). The Chiefs are winless against the spread when they have played as 12.5-point favorites or more (0-2-1).

Chiefs games have gone over the total seven times this season. The Chiefs won 12 of the 17 games they were the moneyline favorite last season (70.6%).

The Chiefs never played a game last season with moneyline odds of -720 or shorter.

Broncos Betting Insights

The Broncos are 6-9-0 against the spread this season.

This season, four Broncos games have gone over the point total. This season, the Broncos have won one out of the seven games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Broncos have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +520 moneyline set for this game.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.7 49.5 49.9
Implied Total AVG 28.5 29.3 27.9
ATS Record 5-9-1 2-4-1 3-5-0
Over/Under Record 7-8-0 1-6-0 6-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 11-2 6-0 5-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-1 1-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.3 41.6 41.0
Implied Total AVG 22.7 23.3 22.3
ATS Record 6-9-0 3-4-0 3-5-0
Over/Under Record 4-11-0 2-5-0 2-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-5 2-2 1-3
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-6 1-2 0-4

Players to Watch


  • Patrick Mahomes II has thrown for 4,720 yards (first in the NFL), 37 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He is averaging 314.7 yards per game and 8.1 per attempt, while completing 66.9% of his attempts.
  • In addition to his passing stats, Mahomes also has 321 rushing yards (second on the Chiefs), with four rushing touchdowns.
  • Travis Kelce has caught 97 passes (fifth in the NFL) on 135 targets for 1,257 total yards (seventh in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns. He is averaging 6.5 catches and 83.8 yards per game in 15 games.
  • Jerick McKinnon‘s output on the ground this season includes 281 yards and one TD. He’s averaging 18.7 yards per game and 4.1 per attempt.
  • McKinnon has totaled 49 catches on 62 targets for 460 yards, with six receiving TDs.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has 74 receptions for 877 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been targeted 96 times in the air attack, and averages 5.3 receptions and 62.6 yards in 14 games played.
  • Over on the defensive side, Nick Bolton has 153 tackles, 8.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions in 2022. His tackle total leads the Chiefs and is third in the NFL.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has picked off two pases and added 102 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 3.5 sacks, and 10 passes defended.
  • Chris Jones has totaled 36 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and 12.0 sacks so far this year.
  • Willie Gay Jr. has 2.5 sacks to go with 9.0 TFL, 75 tackles, and one interception this year.


  • Russell Wilson is averaging 7.2 passing yards per attempt (14th in the NFL) and 232.2 yards per game this year, completing 60.1% of his passes on the way to 3,019 total yards, 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions through 13 games.
  • Wilson has also rushed for one touchdown and 232 yards (second on the Broncos).
  • Latavius Murray has 601 rushing yards (leading the Broncos) and five rushing touchdowns, while averaging 54.6 yards per game and 4.2 per carry (28th in the NFL).
  • Chase Edmonds has rushed for two touchdowns this year, and has totaled 166 rushing yards (15.1 per game and 3.2 per carry).
  • Edmonds’ statistic output includes 13 receptions (1.2 per game) on 21 targets for 118 yards (10.7 per game) and one receiving touchdown.
  • Marlon Mack has scored one touchdown on the ground, while running for 84 total yards (5.3 per attempt and 12.0 per game).
  • Mack has also caught eight passes for 99 yards (ninth on the Broncos), with one receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 10 times and averages 14.1 yards per game.
  • Josey Jewell’s 2022 output includes 114 tackles, 7.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and two interceptions through 11 games. He is second on the Broncos in tackles.
  • Alex Singleton has totaled 5.0 TFL and 135 tackles through 15 games.
  • During the 2022 campaign, Patrick Surtain II has 56 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and two interceptions in 15 games.
  • Justin Simmons’ season stats include 57 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and five interceptions in 10 games. He is fifth on the Broncos in tackles.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Chiefs, and we project that Chiefs will cover the spread (Chiefs -12.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 45 points.

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How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Broncos

You can bet on Chiefs vs. Broncos at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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