Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Week 6 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – October 2022

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The AFC East and AFC West leaders meet on Sunday, October 16, 2022, when the Buffalo Bills (4-1) square off against the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) at Arrowhead Stadium.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -140 odds to pick up the win, while the Chiefs are listed at +120 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 54 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Chiefs Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, October 16, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:25 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bills have been shining on both offense and defense, ranking best in total offense (440.4 yards per game) and second-best in total defense (260.4 yards allowed per game). The Bills have been a handful for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (second-best with 30.4 points per game) and scoring defense (best with 12.2 points allowed per game) this year.

The Bills have been a tough matchup for opposing teams in the passing game, as they rank top-five in both passing offense (best with 324.0 passing yards per game) and passing defense (fifth-best with 182.6 passing yards allowed per game) this season. The Bills have the 14th-ranked offense this year in terms of rushing yards (116.4 per game), and they’ve been better defensively, ranking second-best with just 77.8 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Bills sport the 16th-ranked defense this year in terms of third-down efficiency (39.3% third-down conversion rate allowed), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking best with a 55.7% third-down percentage. The Bills have been finding success on both offense and defense in terms of yards per play, ranking best in yards per play on offense (6.7) and second-best in yards per play allowed on defense (4.4). With 11 forced turnovers (first in NFL) against nine turnovers committed (25th in NFL), the Bills’ +2 turnover margin ranks seventh in the league.


The Chiefs are posting 381.4 total yards per game on offense this season (sixth-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 339.2 total yards per game (14th-ranked). The Chiefs’ offensive attack has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank best in the NFL with 31.8 points per game. In terms of defense, they are surrendering 25.0 points per game, which ranks 24th.

The Chiefs’ pass offense has been thriving, racking up 267.2 passing yards per game (fourth-best) this season. Defensively, they rank 24th by surrendering 255.6 passing yards per game. The Chiefs’ run defense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank third-best in the NFL with 83.6 rushing yards surrendered per game. In terms of offense, they are compiling 114.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 18th.

The Chiefs’ third-down offense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with a 52.5% third-down conversion percentage. In terms of defense, they are ceding a 38.5% third-down rate, which ranks 15th. From an offensive perspective, the Chiefs are generating 5.8 yards per play (ninth-ranked). They rank 11th in the NFL on defense (5.3 yards surrendered per play). The Chiefs have produced four forced turnovers (26th in NFL) and committed four turnovers (fourth in NFL) this season for a 0 turnover margin that ranks 17th in the NFL.

Bills vs. Chiefs Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Jake Kumerow WR Ankle Out
Jordan Phillips DT Hamstring Questionable
Tre’Davious White CB Acl Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Jerrion Ealy WR Suspension Out
Trent McDuffie CB Hamstring Questionable
Tershawn Wharton DT Acl Out
Bryan Cook FB Concussion Out
Rashad Fenton CB Hamstring Out

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills have put together a 3-2-0 record against the spread this season. In games they were favored in by 2.5 points or more so far this season, the Bills have gone 3-2 against the spread.

Bills games have gone over the total once this season. The Bills were favored on the moneyline 14 total times last season. They finished 9-5 in those games.

The Bills went 9-5 last year (winning 64.3% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -140 or shorter.

Chiefs Betting Insights

The Chiefs have covered the spread two times this season (2-3-0).

Chiefs games have gone over the total three times this year. The Chiefs won the only game they’ve played as the underdog this season.

The Chiefs have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +120 odds on them winning this game.

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Bills vs. Chiefs Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.8 46.0 52.3
Implied Total AVG 28.4 29.5 27.7
ATS Record 3-2-0 2-0-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 1-4-0 1-1-0 0-3-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-1 2-0 2-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 51.2 52.0 50.7
Implied Total AVG 28.0 28.5 27.7
ATS Record 2-3-0 0-2-0 2-1-0
Over/Under Record 3-2-0 1-1-0 2-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-1 2-0 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-0 0-0 1-0

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen ranks first in the NFL with 1,651 passing yards through five games this year, averaging 330.2 per game with a 66.8% completion percentage and 14 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against four interceptions.
  • He has also rushed for 225 yards (first on the Bills) and added two touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 45.0 rushing yards per game.
  • Stefon Diggs has caught 39 passes (third in the NFL) on 51 targets for 508 total yards (fourth in the NFL) and five touchdowns. He is averaging 7.8 catches and 101.6 yards per game in five games.
  • Through four games played, Gabriel Davis is averaging 77.3 yards and 2.8 receptions per game on the way to 309 receiving yards and 11 catches. He’s been targeted 20 times, and has three receiving touchdowns (seventh in the NFL).
  • In the ground game, Devin Singletary averages 4.3 yards per attempt (29th in the NFL) and 34.2 yards per game for 171 total rushing yards. He is still looking to score his first rushing TD of the season.
  • Singletary’s 24 receiving targets have led to 18 receptions (3.6 per game) for 145 yards (29.0 per game) and one TD.
  • On defense, Matt Milano has 3.0 TFL, 29 tackles, and one interception in 2022.
  • Gregory Rousseau has 15 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has put up 26 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack so far this year.
  • Jordan Poyer has four interceptions (first in the NFL) while tacking on 12 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and six passes defended.


  • Patrick Mahomes II is averaging 7.4 passing yards per attempt (14th in the NFL) and 279.6 yards per game this year, completing 66.7% of his passes on the way to 1,398 total yards (fifth in the NFL), 15 touchdowns (first in the NFL) and two interceptions through five games.
  • On the ground, Mahomes has added 92 rushing yards (fourth on the Chiefs).
  • Travis Kelce has 347 receiving yards and seven touchdowns (first in the NFL) on 33 receptions (seventh in the NFL), while being targeted 42 times.
  • So far this season in five games, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has churned out 223 rushing yards (leading the Chiefs) and scored two rushing touchdowns. He averages 44.6 yards per game and 4.5 per carry (26th in the NFL).
  • In addition to his rushing stats, Edwards-Helaire has grabbed 16 passes (on 18 targets) for 137 yards (fifth on the Chiefs), with three receiving touchdowns. He averages 27.4 yards per game.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 258 receiving yards from 19 receptions after getting 31 targets.
  • In 2022, L’Jarius Sneed has put up 3.0 sacks to go with 39 tackles through five games.
  • Nick Bolton has 46 tackles, 2.0 TFL, and 2.0 sacks. He leads the Chiefs in tackles.
  • In the 2022 campaign, Jaylen Watson has 17 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one interception in five games.
  • Darius Harris has 25 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack.

Bills vs. Chiefs Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Bills, and we predict that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 54 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Chiefs

You can bet on Bills vs. Chiefs at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Chiefs picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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