Commanders vs Browns Prediction: Week 17 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – January 1, 2023

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Sunday, January 1, 2023 will see the Washington Commanders (7-7-1) host the Cleveland Browns (6-9) at FedExField.

Commanders vs. Browns Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 2.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Commanders as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Commanders have -130 odds to pick up the win, while the Browns are listed at +110 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 40.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Commanders vs. Browns Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 1, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: FOX
  • Location: Landover, Maryland
  • Stadium: FedExField

Betting Preview


Defensively, the Commanders have been a top-five unit, ranking fourth-best by surrendering just 313.1 yards per game. They rank 19th on offense (336.4 yards per game). The Commanders rank 24th in scoring offense (19.0 points per game) and 12th in scoring defense (20.9 points allowed per game) this year.

The Commanders are putting up 212.7 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 19th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank seventh, giving up 198.6 passing yards per contest. The Commanders are averaging 123.7 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 13th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 13th, giving up 114.5 rushing yards per contest.

The Commanders have the 25th-ranked offense this year in terms of third-down efficiency (35.5% conversion rate), and they’ve been more effective defensively, ranking second-best with a 32.6% third-down conversion rate allowed. The Commanders are putting up 5.0 yards per play (25th in the league), while allowing 5.3 per play on the defensive side of the ball (12th in the NFL) this season. The Commanders rank 22nd in the league with a -3 turnover margin after forcing 16 turnovers (22nd in the NFL) and committing 19 (13th in the NFL).

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With 355.1 total yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Browns rank 10th in the NFL in 2022. On defense, they rank 16th, allowing 335.9 total yards per contest. With 21.5 points per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Browns rank 14th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 21st, surrendering 22.9 points per contest.

The Browns rank 22nd in the NFL with 207.7 passing yards per contest on offense, and they rank eighth with 201.5 passing yards surrendered per contest on defense. The Browns’ run defense ranks 25th in the NFL with 134.3 rushing yards surrendered per game, but they’ve been carried by their offense, which ranks fifth-best by accumulating 147.3 rushing yards per contest.

With a 38.0% third-down conversion percentage on offense, the Browns rank 20th in the NFL. On defense, they rank eighth, giving up a 37.5% third-down rate. With 5.3 yards per play on offense, the Browns rank 18th in the NFL. Defensively they rank 20th, allowing 5.6 yards per play. With 16 forced turnovers (22nd in NFL) and 19 turnovers committed (13th in NFL) this season, the Browns rank 22nd in the NFL with a turnover margin of -3.

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Commanders vs. Browns Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Antonio Gibson RB Foot Questionable
Armani Rogers TE Knee Questionable
Benjamin St-Juste CB Ankle Questionable
Andrew Norwell OG Shoulder Probable
Jon Bostic LB Pectoral Questionable
James Smith-Williams DE Concussion Questionable
Tariq Castro-Fields CB Knee Questionable
Saahdiq Charles OT Concussion Questionable
Wes Schweitzer OG Illness Questionable
Shaka Toney DE Ankle Probable
Chase Young DE Illness Probable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Jadeveon Clowney DE Concussion Questionable
Jedrick Wills Jr. OT Back Questionable
Amari Cooper WR Hip Questionable
Demetric Felton RB Illness Questionable

Commanders vs. Browns Betting Analysis

Commanders Betting Insights

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The Commanders have covered the spread eight times this season (8-7-0). In games they have played as 2.5-point favorites or more, the Commanders have an ATS record of 3-1.

Games involving the Commanders have hit the over five times this season. The Commanders were favored on the moneyline four total times last season. They finished 3-1 in those games.

The Commanders had a 3-1 record last year (winning 75% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -130 or shorter.

Browns Betting Insights

The Browns have covered the spread eight times this year (8-7-0). In games this year when an underdog by 2.5 points or more, the Browns have gone 4-3 against the spread.

Games involving Browns have hit the over seven times this season. This season, the Browns have won three out of the eight games in which they’ve been the underdog.

The Browns have a record of 2-4 in games where sportsbooks have them as underdogs of at least +110 on the moneyline.

Commanders vs. Browns Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.9 42.8 41.1
Implied Total AVG 22.9 23.1 22.6
ATS Record 8-7-0 4-3-0 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 5-9-1 2-5-0 3-4-1
Moneyline Favorite Record 4-2-1 2-1 2-1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-4 1-2 2-2


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 43.7 40.6 47.2
Implied Total AVG 23.9 22.1 26.0
ATS Record 8-7-0 5-3-0 3-4-0
Over/Under Record 7-7-1 4-3-1 3-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-4 2-3 1-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-5 2-1 1-4

Players to Watch


  • Terry McLaurin has brought in 72 passes on 109 targets for 1,092 total yards (ninth in the NFL) and four touchdowns. He is averaging 4.8 catches and 72.8 yards per game through 15 games played.
  • Taylor Heinicke has 1,859 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions this year. He has completed 62.2% of his passes, averaging 206.6 yards per game and 7.2 per attempt.
  • He’s rushed for 96 yards (fourth on the Commanders) and added one touchdown on the ground, while averaging 10.7 rushing yards per game.
  • In the passing game, Curtis Samuel, has totaled 652 receiving yards and four touchdowns after pulling down 62 balls on 89 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 43.5 yards and 4.1 receptions in 15 games.
  • Carson Wentz has thrown for 1,612 yards, 11 touchdowns and six interceptions this year. He is averaging 230.3 yards per game and 6.5 per attempt, while completing 62.9%.
  • In addition to his passing stats, Wentz also has 79 yards on the ground (seventh on the Commanders), but no touchdowns.
  • On the defensive side, Jonathan Allen has 63 tackles, 14.0 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and one interception in 2022.
  • Da’Ron Payne has 57 tackles, 15.0 TFL, 9.5 sacks, and five passes defended.
  • Jamin Davis has collected 94 tackles, 8.0 TFL, and 3.0 sacks so far this year. He leads the Commanders in tackles.
  • Montez Sweat has 39 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 7.0 sacks, and three passes defended.


  • So far this year through 15 games, Nick Chubb has churned out 1,344 rushing yards (leading the Browns and third in the NFL) and scored 12 rushing touchdowns. He averages 89.6 yards per game and 4.9 per carry (11th in the NFL).
  • Chubb has also been a piece of the passing game with 182 yards (12.1 per game) on 21 receptions (1.4 per game), while being targeted 30 times. He is still seeking his first receiving touchdown.
  • Jacoby Brissett has 2,608 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. His completion percentage is 64.0% and he averages 200.6 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
  • Brissett also has two rushing touchdowns and 241 rushing yards (third on the Browns).
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones has recorded 784 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 58 receptions, while being targeted 89 times this season.
  • Kareem Hunt puts up 30.3 rushing yards per game over 15 games (455 total yards), with three rushing touchdowns.
  • Hunt has also caught 31 passes for 196 yards (sixth on the Browns), with one receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 39 times and averages 13.1 yards per game.
  • In 2022, Myles Garrett has recorded 43 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and 13.5 sacks through 14 games.
  • Grant Delpit has 3.0 TFL, 90 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Denzel Ward has 1.0 TFL, 50 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Martin Emerson’s season stats include 54 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack in 15 games. He is fifth on the Browns in tackles.

Commanders vs. Browns Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Commanders, and we project that Commanders will cover the spread (Commanders -2.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40.5 points.

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How to Bet on Commanders vs. Browns

You can bet on Commanders vs. Browns at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Commanders vs. Browns picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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