Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: Week 14 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – December 11, 2022

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The Denver Broncos (3-9) will have their hearts set on rebounding from their four-game losing streak when they challenge the Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, December 11, 2022.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -380 odds to pick up the win, while the Broncos are listed at +310 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 43 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Broncos Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, December 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 4:05 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • Stadium: Empower Field at Mile High

Betting Preview

Chiefs

The Chiefs rank 16th in total defense this season (343.4 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 423.3 total yards per game. The Chiefs rank 15th in scoring defense this year (22.5 points allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 29.2 points per game.

The Chiefs rank 23rd in pass defense this season (237.3 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 306.5 passing yards per game. The Chiefs are totaling 116.8 rushing yards per game on offense (17th in the NFL), and they rank sixth on defense with 106.2 rushing yards allowed per game.

On offense, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by putting up a 51.4% third-down conversion rate. They rank 20th on defense (40.5% third-down conversion rate allowed). Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking best in the NFL by totaling 6.5 yards per play. They rank 13th on defense (5.4 yards per play allowed). The Chiefs own the 26th-ranked turnover margin in the league at -4, forcing 12 turnovers (24th in NFL) while turning it over 16 times (20th in NFL).

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Broncos

The Broncos have been excelling on defense, allowing just 304.6 total yards per game (third-best). On offense, they rank 27th by accumulating 315.2 total yards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos are bottom-five, posting only 13.8 points per game (worst). Fortunately, they are dominating on the other side of the ball, ceding only 17 points per contest (second-best).

The Broncos have been thriving on pass defense, surrendering just 184.5 passing yards per contest (third-best). On offense, they rank 21st in the NFL by piling up 212.3 passing yards per game. In terms of rushing, the Broncos rank 24th in the NFL on offense (102.9 rushing yards per game) and 19th on the other side of the ball (120.1 rushing yards allowed per contest).

Offensively, the Broncos are bottom-five on third down, generating a 27.4% third-down conversion rate (third-worst). On the bright side, they are thriving on defense, allowing a 31.9% third-down rate (third-best). The Broncos have been dominant on defense in terms of yards per play, giving up just 4.8 (second-best). Offensively, they rank 25th in the NFL by piling up 5 yards per play. At +1, the Broncos have the 13th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL, with 13 forced turnovers (22nd in NFL) and 12 turnovers committed (fifth in NFL).

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Chiefs vs. Broncos Injury Report

Chiefs

Player Pos. Injury Status
Kadarius Toney WR Hamstring Questionable
Deon Bush DB Elbow Questionable

Broncos

Player Pos. Injury Status
Courtland Sutton WR Hamstring Questionable
Dakota Allen LB Hamstring Questionable
K’Waun Williams CB Knee Questionable
Andrew Beck TE Hamstring Questionable

Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Analysis

Chiefs Betting Insights

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The Chiefs have covered the spread four times in 12 games with a set spread. The Chiefs have an ATS record of 1-1-1 when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites.

Chiefs games have gone over the total five times this season. The Chiefs were the moneyline favorite 17 total times last season. They finished 12-5 in those games.

The Chiefs won all five games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -380 or shorter.

Broncos Betting Insights

The Broncos have covered the spread four times this year (4-8-0).

This year, Broncos games have hit the over once. The Broncos have entered the game as underdogs six times this season and won once.

The Broncos have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +310 odds on them winning this game.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Against The Spread & Betting Records

Chiefs

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 50.3 49.4 51.1
Implied Total AVG 28.3 29.2 27.5
ATS Record 4-7-1 1-4-1 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 5-7-0 1-5-0 4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 8-2 5-0 3-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-1 1-0

Broncos

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 41.9 42.1 41.7
Implied Total AVG 22.8 23.2 22.6
ATS Record 4-8-0 1-4-0 3-4-0
Over/Under Record 1-11-0 0-5-0 1-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 2-4 1-2 1-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-5 1-1 0-4

Players to Watch

Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes II ranks first in the NFL with 3,808 passing yards in 12 games this year, averaging 317.3 per game with a 65.7% completion percentage and 30 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
  • To go along with his passing stats, Mahomes has 283 rushing yards (fourth on the Chiefs), with two rushing touchdowns.
  • Travis Kelce has caught 77 passes (sixth in the NFL) on 108 targets for 968 total yards (sixth in the NFL) and 12 touchdowns. He is averaging 6.4 catches and 80.7 yards per game in 12 games.
  • In the passing game, JuJu Smith-Schuster, has totaled 688 receiving yards and two touchdowns after grabbing 52 balls on 71 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 62.5 yards and 4.7 receptions over 11 games.
  • Isaih Pacheco has run for 521 yards, averaging 43.4 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns.
  • On the defensive side, Nick Bolton has 120 tackles, eight TFL, two sacks, and two interceptions in 2022. His tackle total leads the Chiefs and is fifth in the NFL.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has intercepted one pass and added 82 tackles, three TFL, 3.5 sacks, and eight passes defended.
  • Chris Jones has put up 28 tackles, 10 TFL, and 10 sacks this year.
  • So far this season, Willie Gay Jr. has 57 tackles, seven TFL, and 2.5 sacks.

Broncos

  • Russell Wilson has thrown for 2,558 yards this year, with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. He is completing 60.1% of his attempts while averaging 232.5 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt.
  • Wilson has also rushed for one touchdown and 158 yards (third on the Broncos).
  • Latavius Murray averages 50.6 rushing yards per game over eight games (405 total yards), while scoring four rushing touchdowns.
  • Murray has also collected 84 receiving yards (10.5 per game) on 17 catches (2.1 per game). He’s been targeted 19 times and is still seeking his first receiving touchdown.
  • So far this season, Jerry Jeudy has caught 34 passes for 514 receiving yards with three touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 59 total times and is averaging 3.4 receptions per game in 10 games played.
  • Greg Dulcich has 319 receiving yards and one touchdown from 25 receptions after receiving 37 targets.
  • In 2022, Alex Singleton has put up 101 tackles and five TFL over 12 games.
  • Josey Jewell’s stats include 84 tackles, seven TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
  • In the 2022 season, Dre’Mont Jones has 39 tackles, eight TFL, and 5.5 sacks through 12 games.
  • Patrick Surtain II’s stats include 46 tackles, two TFL, and eight passes defended in 12 games

Chiefs vs. Broncos Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Chiefs, and we predict that Broncos will cover the spread (Chiefs -9.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 43 points.

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How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Broncos

You can bet on Chiefs vs. Broncos at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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