Lions vs Bills Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 12 – November 24, 2022

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As they try to extend a three-game winning streak, the Detroit Lions (4-6) host the Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Ford Field on Thursday, November 24, 2022.

Bills vs. Lions Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -425 odds to pick up the win, while the Lions are listed at +340 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 54.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Lions Live?

  • Game Day: Thursday, November 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Detroit, Michigan
  • Stadium: Ford Field

Betting Preview

Bills

On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit, ranking second-best in the NFL by totaling 417.4 yards per game. They rank 13th on defense (327.4 yards allowed per game). The Bills have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (second-best with 28.1 points per game) and scoring defense (fifth-best with 17.4 points allowed per game) this season.

The Bills rank 20th in pass defense this year (220.8 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best in the NFL with 283.4 passing yards per game. The Bills are averaging 134 rushing yards per game offensively this year (ninth in NFL), and they are giving up 106.6 rushing yards per game (eighth) on defense.

On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by averaging a 50% third-down conversion rate. They rank 14th on defense (40% third-down conversion rate allowed). Offensively, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of yards per play, ranking second-best in the NFL by totaling 6.4 yards per play. They rank ninth on defense (5.2 yards per play allowed). With 18 forced turnovers (third in NFL) against 18 turnovers committed (30th in NFL), the Bills’ even turnover margin ranks 16th in the NFL.

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Lions

The Lions’ defense has been a bottom-five unit in total defense this season, ceding 415.9 total yards per game, which ranks worst. Offensively, they rank sixth with 366.6 total yards per contest. The Lions have been sputtering defensively, ranking worst with 28.2 points given up per game. They have been better offensively, putting up 25 points per contest (eighth-ranked).

The Lions have been struggling to stop the pass, ranking fifth-worst with 262.2 passing yards surrendered per game. They have been more effective on the other side of the ball, generating 233.8 passing yards per contest (11th-ranked). The Lions rank 10th in rushing yards per game (132.8), but they’ve been less productive on the defensive side of the ball, ranking second-worst in the NFL with 153.7 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Lions’ defense has been a bottom-five unit on third down this season, allowing a 50% third-down conversion rate, which ranks worst in the NFL. On offense, they rank 16th with a 50% third-down rate. The Lions’ defense has been bottom-five this season in terms of yards per play, allowing 6.4, which ranks worst in the NFL. Offensively, they rank sixth at 5.9 yards per play. With 13 forced turnovers (14th in NFL) and 12 turnovers committed (12th in NFL) this season, the Lions rank eighth in the NFL with a turnover margin of +1.

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Bills vs. Lions Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Tremaine Edmunds LB Groin Out
Gregory Rousseau DE Ankle Out
A.J. Epenesa DE Ankle Doubtful
Mitch Morse C Ankle Questionable

Lions

Player Pos. Injury Status
Evan Brown C Ankle Out
Jonah Jackson OG Illness Out
Josh Reynolds WR Back Questionable
Jeff Okudah CB Concussion Out
Jameson Williams WR Acl Questionable

Bills vs. Lions Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills are 5-5-0 against the spread this season. In games they have played as 9.5-point favorites or more, the Bills have an ATS record of 2-2.

This season, Bills games have hit the over three times. The Bills finished 9-5 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 64.3% of those games).

The Bills went 6-1 last year (winning 85.7% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -425 or shorter.

Lions Betting Insights

The Lions are 6-3-1 against the spread this season.

Games involving Lions have hit the over seven times this season. The Lions have entered the game as underdogs nine times this season and won four of those games.

The Lions have not entered a game this season as a bigger underdog on the moneyline than the +340 odds on them winning this game.

Bills vs. Lions Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.4 47.4 51.4
Implied Total AVG 28.3 28.8 27.8
ATS Record 5-5-0 3-2-0 2-3-0
Over/Under Record 3-7-0 3-2-0 0-5-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-3 4-1 3-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Lions

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.9 49.4 48.3
Implied Total AVG 26.4 26.4 26.4
ATS Record 6-3-1 3-1-1 3-2-0
Over/Under Record 7-3-0 4-1-0 3-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 0-1 0-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 4-5 2-2 2-3

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen has passed for 2,930 yards (second in the NFL), 21 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He is averaging 293 yards per game and 8 per attempt, while completing 64.7% of his passes.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Allen has 483 rushing yards (first on the Bills), with four rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs‘ 1,033 receiving yards this season (third in the NFL) have come from 103 targets and 76 receptions (second in the NFL). He’s averaging 103.3 receiving yards and 7.6 catches per game, with eight receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL).
  • In the passing game, Gabriel Davis, has racked up 612 receiving yards and five touchdowns after pulling down 29 balls on 54 targets. Per game, he’s averaging 68 yards and 3.2 receptions in nine games.
  • In the running game, Devin Singletary averages 4.4 yards per attempt (34th in the NFL) and 48 yards per game for 480 total rushing yards. He has scored three rushing touchdowns this season.
  • He’s added 30 catches (on 40 targets) for 218 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 21.8 receiving yards and three receptions per game.
  • On defense, Matt Milano has one sack to go with 10 TFL, 55 tackles, and two interceptions in 2022.
  • Damar Hamlin has 64 tackles, four TFL, and 1.5 sacks this season.
  • Taron Johnson has put up 60 tackles, three TFL, and one interception this year.
  • This season, Von Miller has 20 tackles, seven TFL, and eight sacks.

Lions

  • In 10 games played this year, Jared Goff has amassed 2,442 passing yards (10th-best in the NFL), with 15 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) against seven interceptions and completing 63.9% of his attempts.
  • Jamaal Williams has scored 12 rushing touchdowns, while totaling 668 rushing yards (4.2 per attempt and 66.8 per game).
  • So far this season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has caught 56 passes (10th in the NFL) for 594 receiving yards with three touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 78 total times and is averaging 6.2 receptions per game in nine games played.
  • D’Andre Swift averages 39 rushing yards per game over seven games (273 total yards), with three rushing touchdowns.
  • Swift has also caught 20 passes for 162 yards (fourth on the Lions), with two receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 27 times and averages 23.1 yards per game.
  • Alex Anzalone has recorded 1.5 sacks (fourth on the Lions) to go with two TFL and 75 tackles over 10 games so far in 2022.
  • DeShon Elliott has four TFL, 64 tackles, and one interception.
  • Aidan Hutchinson has 5.5 sacks (first on the Lions) as well as four TFL, 31 tackles, and two interceptions in the 2022 campaign.
  • Malcolm Rodriguez has registered one sack (fifth on the Lions) to go with three TFL and 54 tackles through nine games.

Bills vs. Lions Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Bills, and we predict that Lions will cover the spread (Bills -9.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 54.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Lions

You can bet on Bills vs. Lions at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Lions picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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