Bills vs Dolphins Prediction: Week 15 Picks, Live Odds & Start Time – December 17, 2022

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On Saturday, December 17, 2022, the Miami Dolphins (8-5) visit a red-hot Buffalo Bills (10-3) squad at Highmark Stadium. The Bills are looking to keep on rolling after winning four games in a row.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 7 points, with bookmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -315 odds to pick up the win, while the Dolphins are listed at +260 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 43.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:15 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NFLN
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview

Bills

Offensively, the Bills have been a top-five unit, ranking second-best in the NFL by putting up 397.1 yards per game. They rank ninth on defense (319.3 yards allowed per game). The Bills have been surging on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth-best in scoring offense (27.2 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (17.0 points allowed per game).

The Bills are averaging 263.4 passing yards per game offensively this season (sixth in NFL), and they are surrendering 219.5 passing yards per game (19th) on defense. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of rushing yards, ranking fourth-best by giving up only 99.8 per game. They rank eighth on offense (133.7 rushing yards per game).

On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by putting up a 48.7% third-down conversion rate. They rank 18th on defense (39.6% third-down conversion rate allowed). The Bills rank eighth in yards per play allowed this year (5.1), but they’ve been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking third-best in the NFL with 6.1 yards per play. The Bills have the 10th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL at +2, forcing 22 turnovers (fourth in NFL) while turning it over 20 times (28th in NFL).

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Dolphins

From an offensive angle, the Dolphins are compiling 367.8 total yards per contest (seventh-ranked). They rank 20th in the NFL defensively (350.8 total yards allowed per game). The Dolphins are generating 24.3 points per game on offense this season (ninth-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 24.0 points per contest (22nd-ranked) on defense.

The Dolphins’ pass offense has been dominant, piling up 277.9 passing yards per game (second-best) this season. On defense, they rank 23rd by allowing 242.5 passing yards per game. The Dolphins rank fourth-worst in rushing yards per game (89.8), but they’ve been more productive defensively, ranking seventh in the NFL with 108.3 rushing yards conceded per contest.

The Dolphins are generating a 37.8% third-down conversion rate on offense this season (23rd-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering a 42.6% third-down rate (24th-ranked) on defense. The Dolphins’ offense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 6.2 yards per play. In terms of defense, they are conceding 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 13th. At -3, the Dolphins sport the 24th-ranked turnover margin in the NFL, with 12 forced turnovers (28th in NFL) and 15 turnovers committed (11th in NFL).

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Bills vs. Dolphins Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Ed Oliver DT Pectoral Questionable
Reggie Gilliam FB Ankle Questionable
Jordan Phillips DT Shoulder Questionable
Matt Milano LB Knee Questionable

Dolphins

Player Pos. Injury Status
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB Hip Questionable
Tyreek Hill WR Ankle Probable
Teddy Bridgewater QB Knee Questionable
Durham Smythe TE Quad Questionable
Terron Armstead OT Toe Questionable
Elijah Campbell DB Concussion Questionable
River Cracraft WR Calf Questionable
Justin Zimmer DT Back Probable
Kader Kohou CB Thumb Probable

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills have put together a record of 6-7-0 against the spread this season. The Bills are 3-4 ATS when playing as at least 7-point favorites.

Bills games have gone over the total three times this season. The Bills won 64.3% of the games last season when they were favored on the moneyline (9-5).

The Bills had a 7-1 record last year (winning 87.5% of their games) when they played as a moneyline favorite of -315 or shorter.

Dolphins Betting Insights

The Dolphins are 4-7-2 against the spread this season.

This year, Dolphins games have hit the over six times. The Dolphins have been underdogs in five games this season and won two (40%) of those contests.

The Dolphins have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +260.

Bills vs. Dolphins Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 49.0 46.8 50.8
Implied Total AVG 28.2 28.5 27.9
ATS Record 6-7-0 3-3-0 3-4-0
Over/Under Record 3-10-0 3-3-0 0-7-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-3 5-1 5-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Dolphins

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.9 47.6 48.1
Implied Total AVG 26.5 26.8 26.3
ATS Record 4-7-2 3-2-1 1-5-1
Over/Under Record 6-7-0 1-5-0 5-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-2 4-0 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-3 1-1 1-2

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen ranks fifth in the NFL with 3,553 passing yards in 13 games this year, averaging 273.3 per game with a 63.8% completion percentage and 26 touchdowns (third in the NFL) against 11 interceptions.
  • He has also rushed for 628 yards (second on the Bills) and added six touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 48.3 rushing yards per game.
  • Stefon Diggs has caught 94 passes (third in the NFL) on 132 targets for 1,239 total yards (fourth in the NFL) and 10 touchdowns. He is averaging 7.2 catches and 95.3 yards per game through 13 games.
  • Devin Singletary‘s output on the ground this season includes 642 yards and four TDs. He is averaging 49.4 yards per game and 4.4 per attempt (26th in the NFL).
  • Singletary has 32 catches on 45 targets for 230 yards, with one receiving TD.
  • Gabriel Davis averages 3.2 receptions and 58.0 yards per game, and has 696 total receiving yards and 38 catches. He’s gotten 70 total targets, and has caught six touchdown passes.
  • On the defensive side, Damar Hamlin has 1.5 sacks to go with 4.0 TFL and 79 tackles in 2022.
  • Taron Johnson has 75 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one interception this season.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has recorded 80 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack so far this year.
  • Gregory Rousseau has 7.0 sacks (second on the Bills) to go with his 7.0 TFL and 27 tackles on the season.

Dolphins

  • Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 3,004 yards this year, with 22 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and five interceptions. He is completing 65.5% of his attempts while averaging 273.1 yards per game and 8.7 per attempt.
  • Tyreek Hill has 1,460 receiving yards (second in the NFL) and six touchdowns on 100 receptions (first in the NFL), while being targeted 139 times.
  • This season, Jaylen Waddle has caught 59 passes for 1,003 receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) with six touchdowns through the air. He has been targeted 93 total times and is averaging 4.5 receptions per game in 13 games played.
  • Raheem Mostert has 610 rushing yards (second on the Dolphins) and three rushing touchdowns, while averaging 50.8 yards per game and 4.5 per attempt (21st in the NFL).
  • Mostert also has 126 receiving yards (10.5 per game) on 18 catches (1.5 per game). He has been targeted 27 times with one touchdown reception.
  • Jerome Baker has amassed 4.0 sacks (fourth on the Dolphins) to go with 6.0 TFL and 83 tackles through 13 games in 2022.
  • Christian Wilkins has 78 tackles, 13.0 TFL, and 2.5 sacks. He is third on the Dolphins in tackles.
  • Jevon Holland has 67 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions in the 2022 season. He is fourth on the Dolphins in tackles.
  • Elandon Roberts has 2.5 sacks (fifth on the Dolphins) as well as 5.0 TFL and 80 tackles.

Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Bills, and we project that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -7). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 43.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Dolphins

You can bet on Bills vs. Dolphins at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Dolphins picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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