Bills vs Dolphins Prediction: AFC Wild Card Picks, Live Odds & Start Time

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The Miami Dolphins (9-8) and Buffalo Bills (13-3) meet in the AFC Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 15, 2023.

Bills vs. Dolphins Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 13.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -850 odds to pick up the win, while the Dolphins are listed at +600 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 43.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Dolphins Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 15, 2023
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bills own the sixth-ranked defense this year (319.1 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best with 397.6 yards per game. The Bills have been clicking on all fronts this year, as they rank second-best in scoring offense (28.4 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (17.9 points allowed per game).

The Bills are compiling 258.1 passing yards per game on offense (seventh in the NFL), and they rank 15th on defense with 214.6 passing yards allowed per game. The Bills have the seventh-ranked offense this year in terms of rushing yards (139.5 per game), and they’ve been more effective on defense, ranking fifth-best with just 104.6 rushing yards allowed per game.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking best in the NFL by averaging a 50.3% third-down percentage. They rank seventh on defense (37.5% third-down percentage allowed). The Bills rank seventh in yards per play allowed this season (5.1), but they’ve been playing really well on offense, ranking second-best in the NFL with 6.1 yards per play. The Bills rank 15th in the NFL with an even turnover margin after forcing 27 turnovers (fourth in the NFL) and committing 27 (30th in the NFL).

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From an offensive angle, the Dolphins are compiling 364.5 total yards per contest (sixth-ranked). They rank 18th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (337.8 total yards given up per game). The Dolphins are accumulating 23.4 points per contest on offense this season (11th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up 23.5 points per game (24th-ranked) on defense.

The Dolphins’ pass offense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank fourth-best in the NFL with 265.4 passing yards per game. In terms of defense, they are giving up 234.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 27th. The Dolphins’ run defense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank fourth-best in the NFL with 103.1 rushing yards surrendered per contest. In terms of offense, they are generating 99.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th.

With a 36.2% third-down conversion rate on offense, the Dolphins rank 24th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 24th, giving up a 41.6% third-down rate. The Dolphins’ offense has been thriving in terms of yards per play, compiling 6.1 (second-best) this season. On defense, they rank 13th by allowing 5.3 yards per play. The Dolphins have forced 14 turnovers this season and have turned it over 21 times, leading to a -7 turnover margin that is fifth-worst in the NFL.

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Bills vs. Dolphins Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Isaiah McKenzie WR Hamstring Questionable
Jordan Phillips DT Shoulder Questionable
Jamison Crowder WR Ankle Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Raheem Mostert RB Thumb Out
Teddy Bridgewater QB Knee Questionable
Alec Ingold FB Thumb Questionable
Cedrick Wilson WR Hip Questionable
Bradley Chubb OLB Ankle Questionable
Brandon Shell OT Knee Questionable
Kendall Lamm OT Ankle Questionable
Terron Armstead OT Toe Questionable
Adam Shaheen TE Knee Out

Bills vs. Dolphins Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills are 8-8-0 against the spread this season. The Bills have a perfect 1-0 ATS record when playing as at least 13.5-point favorites.

Bills games have gone over the total six times this season. The Bills won 64.3% of the games last season when they were favored on the moneyline (9-5).

The Bills went 5-1 last year (winning 83.3% of their games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -850 or shorter.

Dolphins Betting Insights

The Dolphins have covered the spread seven times this season (7-8-2).

Dolphins games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under eight times this year. The Dolphins have won two of the seven games they’ve played as underdogs this season.

The Dolphins have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +600 moneyline set for this game.

Bills vs. Dolphins Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 47.8 46.2 49.5
Implied Total AVG 27.6 27.9 27.4
ATS Record 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 6-10-0 5-3-0 1-7-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 13-3 7-1 6-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 46.8 46.5 47.0
Implied Total AVG 25.9 26.1 25.8
ATS Record 7-8-2 4-3-1 3-5-1
Over/Under Record 8-9-0 1-7-0 7-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-3 5-1 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-5 1-1 1-4

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen ranks seventh in the NFL with 4,283 passing yards through 16 games this year, averaging 267.7 per game with a 63.3% completion percentage and 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against 14 interceptions.
  • In addition to his passing stats, Allen has 762 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with seven rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs‘ 1,429 receiving yards this season (fifth in the NFL) have come from 153 targets and 108 receptions (fourth in the NFL). He’s averaging 89.3 receiving yards and 6.8 catches per game, with 11 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL).
  • Devin Singletary‘s output on the ground this season includes 819 yards and five TDs. He’s averaging 51.2 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (19th in the NFL).
  • Singletary has 38 receptions, 280 yards and one TD in the passing game.
  • Gabriel Davis has racked up 836 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with 48 catches on 92 targets. He’s averaging 3.2 receptions and 55.7 yards per game.
  • On the defensive side, Matt Milano has 1.5 sacks to go with 12.0 TFL, 98 tackles, and three interceptions in 2022.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has 104 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and one interception this season. He leads the Bills in tackles.
  • Taron Johnson has collected 90 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and one interception this year. He’s third on the Bills in tackles.
  • Gregory Rousseau has 37 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 8.0 sacks, and four passes defended.


  • Tyreek Hill has totaled 1,710 receiving yards (second in the NFL) and seven touchdowns on 119 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 170 times this season.
  • Jaylen Waddle has 1,356 receiving yards (seventh in the NFL) and eight touchdowns on 75 receptions, while being targeted 116 times.
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. has rushed for five touchdowns this year, and has totaled 860 rushing yards (53.8 per game and 4.9 per carry).
  • Wilson has helped in the receiving game, putting up 185 receiving yards (11.6 per game) on 22 catches (1.4 per game), while being targeted 37 times. He has one receiving touchdown.
  • Mike Gesicki has been targeted 52 times, resulting in 32 catches for 362 yards .
  • So far in 2022, Christian Wilkins has recorded 3.5 sacks to go with 15.0 TFL and 101 tackles over 17 games.
  • Jerome Baker has 100 tackles, 6.0 TFL, 4.0 sacks, and four passes defended.
  • Elandon Roberts has 104 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 4.5 sacks in the 2022 campaign. He leads the Dolphins in tackles.
  • Jevon Holland has 1.5 sacks as well as 1.0 TFL, 92 tackles, and two interceptions.

Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Bills, and we expect that Dolphins will cover the spread (Bills -13.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 43.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Dolphins

You can bet on Bills vs. Dolphins at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Dolphins picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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