Bills vs. Bengals Prediction: Week 17 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – January 2, 2023

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The good times will halt for one team when the Buffalo Bills (12-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) play on January 2, 2023, as both clubs are riding winning streaks. The Bills have secured six games in a row, while the Bengals have piled up seven straight wins.

Bills vs. Bengals Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1.5 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -120 odds to pick up the win, while the Bengals are listed at +100 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 50 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Bengals Live?

  • Game Day: Monday, January 2, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Stadium: Paycor Stadium

Betting Preview

Bills

The Bills rank seventh in total defense this season (317.7 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 402.3 total yards per game. The Bills have been thriving on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth-best in scoring offense (28.0 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (17.5 points allowed per game).

The Bills are compiling 259.5 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 15th, surrendering 213.3 passing yards per contest. Defensively, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of rushing yards, ranking fourth-best by allowing just 104.4 per game. They rank seventh on offense (142.8 rushing yards per game).

On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking best in the NFL by averaging a 49.7% third-down percentage. They rank 11th on defense (37.9% third-down conversion rate allowed). The Bills rank eighth in yards per play allowed this year (5.1), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking third-best in the NFL with 6.2 yards per play. The Bills rank 13th in the league with an even turnover margin after forcing 24 turnovers (fourth in the NFL) and committing 24 (30th in the NFL).

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Bengals

With 367.4 total yards per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals rank seventh in the NFL in 2022. On defense, they rank 14th, allowing 332.3 total yards per contest. The Bengals’ defense ranks ninth in the NFL with 20.4 points given up per game, but they’ve been bolstered by their offense, which ranks fifth-best by compiling 26.1 points per contest.

The Bengals’ passing attack has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank fifth-best in the NFL with 269.2 passing yards per contest. In terms of defense, they are allowing 225.9 passing yards per game, which ranks 21st. From an offensive angle, the Bengals are accumulating 98.2 rushing yards per game (26th-ranked). They rank seventh in the NFL defensively (106.4 rushing yards surrendered per game).

The Bengals’ third-down offense has been consistently moving the chains, putting up a 47.1% third-down conversion rate (fifth-best) this season. Defensively, they rank 19th by surrendering a 39.8% third-down rate. The Bengals rank 11th in the NFL with 5.6 yards per play on offense, and they rank 14th with 5.4 yards surrendered per play on defense. The Bengals have a +3 turnover margin this season, which ranks ninth in the NFL.

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Bills vs. Bengals Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Christian Benford CB Oblique Questionable

Bengals

Player Pos. Injury Status
La’el Collins OT Knee Out
Sam Hubbard DE Calf Questionable

Bills vs. Bengals Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills are 7-8-0 against the spread this season. In games they were favored in by 1.5 points or more so far this season, the Bills went 7-8 against the spread.

Bills games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under five times this season. The Bills won nine of the 14 games they were favored on the moneyline last season (64.3%).

In games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -120 or shorter, the Bills had a 9-5 record (winning 64.3% of their games).

Bengals Betting Insights

The Bengals have compiled a 12-3-0 record against the spread this year. In games they have played as 1.5-point underdogs or more, the Bengals have a perfect ATS record of 2-0.

This season, five Bengals games have gone over the point total. The Bengals have been underdogs in three games this season and won two (66.7%) of those contests.

The Bengals have a record of 1-1 in games where sportsbooks have them as underdogs of at least +100 on the moneyline.

Bills vs. Bengals Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.1 46.5 49.5
Implied Total AVG 27.7 28.1 27.4
ATS Record 7-8-0 3-4-0 4-4-0
Over/Under Record 5-10-0 4-3-0 1-7-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 12-3 6-1 6-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Bengals

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.3 47.5 43.8
Implied Total AVG 25.0 26.7 23.9
ATS Record 12-3-0 5-1-0 7-2-0
Over/Under Record 5-9-1 2-4-0 3-5-1
Moneyline Favorite Record 9-3 4-1 5-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-1 1-0 1-1

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen has 4,029 passing yards (sixth in the NFL), 32 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 13 interceptions this year. He has completed 63.4% of his passes, averaging 268.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Allen has 746 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with seven rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs has 101 receptions (fourth in the NFL) for 1,325 yards (third in the NFL) and 10 TDs. Through 15 games, he is averaging 6.7 catches and 88.3 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary‘s output on the ground this season includes 790 yards and five TDs. He is averaging 52.7 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (19th in the NFL).
  • Singletary has 37 catches, 277 yards and one TD in the passing game.
  • Gabriel Davis has racked up 797 receiving yards and seven touchdowns with 45 catches on 82 targets. He’s averaging 3.2 receptions and 56.9 yards per game.
  • On the defensive side, Matt Milano has 1.5 sacks to go with 12.0 TFL, 90 tackles, and two interceptions in 2022.
  • Damar Hamlin has 90 tackles, 6.0 TFL, and 1.5 sacks this season.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has collected 97 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 1.0 sack this year. He leads the Bills in tackles.
  • Taron Johnson has one interception with 82 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and eight passes defended.

Bengals

  • Joe Burrow is averaging 7.6 passing yards per attempt (seventh in the NFL) and 284.0 yards per game this year, completing 69.0% of his passes on the way to 4,260 total yards (second in the NFL), 34 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 12 interceptions through 15 games.
  • On the ground, Burrow has added five rushing touchdowns and 247 rushing yards (third on the Bengals).
  • Joe Mixon averages 60.5 rushing yards per game through 13 games (787 total yards), while scoring six rushing touchdowns.
  • Mixon has added 55 receptions (4.2 per game) for 400 yards (30.8 per game) with two receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 69 times in the passing attack.
  • In 15 games played this season, Tee Higgins has 73 catches (4.9 receptions per game on 6.9 targets per game) for 1,022 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has been targeted 121 times, resulting in 79 catches for 960 yards (fifth in the NFL).
  • In 2022, Logan Wilson has 113 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one interception over 14 games.
  • Germaine Pratt has totaled 1.0 sack in addition to his 5.0 TFL, 96 tackles, and two interceptions over 14 games.
  • Over the 2022 season, Vonn Bell has 74 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and four interceptions in 15 games.
  • Trey Hendrickson’s season stats include 30 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and 6.0 sacks through 14 games.

Bills vs. Bengals Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this game is the Bills, and we expect that Bengals will cover the spread (Bills -1.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 50 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Bengals

You can bet on Bills vs. Bengals at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Bengals picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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