Bills vs Bengals Prediction: AFC Divisional Picks, Live Odds & Start Time

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The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) and Buffalo Bills (13-3) clash in the AFC Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 22, 2023.

Bills vs. Bengals Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 5.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bills have -245 odds to pick up the win, while the Bengals are listed at +205 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 48.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Bengals Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 22, 2023
  • Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Orchard Park, New York
  • Stadium: Highmark Stadium

Betting Preview


Offensively, the Bills have been a top-five unit, ranking second-best in the NFL by putting up 397.6 yards per game. They rank sixth on defense (319.1 yards allowed per game). The Bills have been a tough matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (second-best with 28.4 points per game) and scoring defense (second-best with 17.9 points allowed per game) this season.

The Bills are totaling 258.1 passing yards per game on offense (seventh in the NFL), and they rank 15th on defense with 214.6 passing yards allowed per game. The Bills sport the seventh-ranked offense this season in terms of rushing yards (139.5 per game), and they’ve been better on defense, ranking fifth-best with just 104.6 rushing yards allowed per game.

The Bills rank seventh in third-down defense this year (37.5% third-down conversion rate allowed), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking best in the NFL with a 50.3% third-down percentage. The Bills own the seventh-ranked defense this year in terms of yards per play (5.1 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking second-best with 6.1 yards per play. The Bills rank 15th in the NFL with an even turnover margin after forcing 27 turnovers (fourth in the NFL) while committing 27 (30th in the NFL).

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The Bengals rank eighth with 360.5 total yards per game on offense, and they rank 16th with 335.7 total yards surrendered per contest on defense. The Bengals’ defensive unit has been paving the way for the team, as they rank fifth-best in the NFL with 20.1 points allowed per game. In terms of offense, they are putting up 26.1 points per game, which ranks seventh.

The Bengals’ pass offense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank fifth-best in the NFL with 265.0 passing yards per contest. In terms of defense, they are giving up 229.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 23rd. The Bengals rank fourth-worst in rushing yards per game (95.5), but they’ve been better on the defensive side of the ball, ranking seventh in the NFL with 106.6 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Bengals’ third-down defense ranks 20th in the NFL with a 39.6% third-down conversion rate given up, but they’ve been carried by their offense, which ranks third-best by compiling a 46.1% third-down rate. The Bengals are compiling 5.5 yards per play on offense this season (11th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 5.4 yards per play (15th-ranked) on defense. With 24 forced turnovers (11th in NFL) and 18 turnovers committed (fourth in NFL) this season, the Bengals rank sixth in the NFL with a turnover margin of +6.

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Bills vs. Bengals Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
DaQuan Jones DT Calf Questionable
Jordan Phillips DT Shoulder Questionable
DaQuan Jones DT Calf Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Alex Cappa OG Ankle Out
Jonah Williams OT Knee Out
Clark Harris LS Biceps Out
Tre Flowers CB Hamstring Doubtful
Tre Flowers CB Hamstring Doubtful
Jonah Williams OT Knee Out
Ben Brown C Biceps Out

Bills vs. Bengals Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills had eight wins in 16 games against the spread during the season. Against the spread in the playoffs, they are 0-1-0. As 5.5-point favorites or more, the Bills are 5-6 against the spread (in the regular season and playoffs).

The Bills had six of their 16 games hit the over during the season. Meanwhile, they have topped the over in one of one game in the postseason. The Bills won 13 of the 16 games they were favored on the moneyline during the regular season (81.2%). They are 1-0 as the moneyline favorite in the playoffs.

The Bills have a record of 9-2 in the regular season and playoffs when playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -245 or shorter (81.8%).

Bengals Betting Insights

The Bengals had 12 wins in 16 games against the spread in the regular season. In the postseason they are 0-1-0 ATS.

In the regular season, six of the Bengals’ 16 games hit the over, and it’s been one of one in the postseason. The Bengals were underdogs in three games during the regular season and won two (66.7%) of those contests. They’ve gone 0-0 in the playoffs.

The Bengals have not entered a game in the regular season or playoffs as bigger underdogs than the +205 odds they have in this game.

Bills vs. Bengals Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 47.8 46.2 49.5 44.0
Implied Total AVG 27.6 27.9 27.4 29.0
ATS Record 8-8-0 4-4-0 4-4-0 0-1-0
Over/Under Record 6-10-0 5-3-0 1-7-0 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 13-3 7-1 6-2 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0


Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 44.9 46.4 43.8 40.0
Implied Total AVG 25.1 26.6 23.9 24.0
ATS Record 12-4-0 5-2-0 7-2-0 0-1-0
Over/Under Record 6-9-1 3-4-0 3-5-1 1-0-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-3 5-1 5-2 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-1 1-0 1-1 0-0

Players to Watch


  • Josh Allen ranks seventh in the NFL with 4,283 passing yards through 16 games this year, averaging 267.7 per game with a 63.3% completion percentage and 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against 14 interceptions.
  • In addition to his passing statistics, Allen has 762 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with seven rushing touchdowns.
  • Stefon Diggs‘ 1,429 receiving yards this season (fifth in the NFL) have come from 153 targets and 108 receptions (fourth in the NFL). He’s averaging 89.3 receiving yards and 6.8 catches per game, with 11 receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL).
  • Through 16 games, Devin Singletary has picked up 819 rushing yards, averaging 51.2 yards per game and scoring five touchdowns.
  • Singletary has gotten 53 targets in the passing game and has 38 catches (2.4 per game) for 280 yards (17.5 per game) and one TD.
  • Gabriel Davis averages 3.2 receptions and 55.7 yards per game, and has 836 total receiving yards and 48 catches. He’s gotten 92 total targets, and has caught seven touchdown passes.
  • On defense, Matt Milano has 98 tackles, 12.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2022.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has 104 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and one interception this season. His tackle total leads the Bills.
  • Taron Johnson has recorded 90 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and one interception this year.
  • Gregory Rousseau has 37 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 8.0 sacks, and four passes defended.


  • Joe Burrow has passed for 4,475 yards this year (to rank fifth in the NFL), with 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 12 interceptions. He is completing 68.3% of his attempts while averaging 279.7 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt.
  • He’s added 257 yards on the ground (third on the Bengals), while scoring five rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 16.1 yards per game and 3.4 per attempt.
  • Joe Mixon has scored seven rushing touchdowns, while totaling 814 rushing yards (3.9 per carry and 58.1 per game).
  • Mixon has added 60 receptions (4.3 per game) for 441 yards (31.5 per game) with two receiving touchdowns. He’s been targeted 74 times in the passing attack.
  • In 12 games played this season, Ja’Marr Chase has 87 catches (7.3 receptions per game on 11.2 targets per game) for 1,046 yards and nine receiving touchdowns (sixth in the NFL).
  • Tee Higgins has been targeted 110 times, resulting in 74 catches for 1,029 yards .
  • In 2022, Logan Wilson has put up 2.5 sacks to go with 3.0 TFL, 121 tackles, and one interception over 15 games.
  • Sam Hubbard has registered 6.5 sacks in addition to his 11.0 TFL and 60 tackles over 15 games.
  • Germaine Pratt has 99 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two interceptions in the 2022 season. He is second on the Bengals in tackles.
  • Vonn Bell has 1.0 sack as well as 4.0 TFL, 78 tackles, and four interceptions.

Bills vs. Bengals Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Bills, and we predict that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -5.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 48.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Bengals

You can bet on Bills vs. Bengals at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Bengals picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

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