Patriots vs Bengals Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 16 – December 24, 2022

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On Saturday, December 24, 2022, the Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) visit the New England Patriots (7-7) at Gillette Stadium and will try to continue a six-game winning streak.

Bengals vs. Patriots Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 3 points, with sportsbooks listing the Bengals as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bengals have -170 odds to pick up the win, while the Patriots are listed at +145 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the total for the game is set at 41.5 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bengals vs. Patriots Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • Stadium: Gillette Stadium

Betting Preview

Bengals

The Bengals rank 10th in total offense (362.1 yards per game) and 16th in total defense (335.7 yards allowed per game) this year. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bengals have been a top-five unit, ranking fifth-best in the NFL by compiling 26.4 points per game. They rank 10th on defense (20.6 points allowed per game).

The Bengals are compiling 262.1 passing yards per game on offense (sixth in the NFL), and they rank 20th on the other side of the ball with 226.1 passing yards allowed per game. The Bengals are totaling 100 rushing yards per game offensively this year (26th in NFL), and they are allowing 109.6 rushing yards per game (eighth) on the other side of the ball.

Offensively, the Bengals have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking fourth-best in the NFL by averaging a 46.9% third-down percentage. They rank 17th on defense (39.3% third-down conversion rate allowed). The Bengals are accumulating 5.6 yards per play (11th in the league), while allowing 5.4 per play on the defensive side of the ball (14th in the NFL) this season. The Bengals have the fifth-best turnover margin in the NFL at +5, forcing 19 turnovers (10th in NFL) while turning it over 14 times (third in NFL).

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Patriots

The Patriots rank 25th with 319.5 total yards per game on offense, and they rank sixth with 312.3 total yards given up per game on the defensive side of the ball. From an offensive angle, the Patriots are accumulating 21.4 points per contest (17th-ranked). They rank seventh in the NFL on the other side of the ball (19.2 points allowed per game).

From an offensive perspective, the Patriots are generating 207.5 passing yards per game (23rd-ranked). They rank ninth in the NFL on defense (202 passing yards surrendered per game). The Patriots rank 19th in the NFL with 112 rushing yards per game on offense, and they rank ninth with 110.3 rushing yards ceded per contest on the defensive side of the ball.

The Patriots’ third-down offense has been a bottom-five unit this season, putting up a 34.1% third-down percentage, which ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 16th with a 39.2% third-down rate surrendered. In terms of yards per play, the Patriots’ defense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank fourth-best in the NFL with 4.9 yards allowed per play. In terms of offense, they are putting up 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 15th. The Patriots have compiled 22 forced turnovers (fourth in NFL) and committed 19 turnovers (23rd in NFL) this season for a +3 turnover margin that ranks 10th in the NFL.

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Bengals vs. Patriots Injury Report

Bengals

Player Pos. Injury Status
Trent Taylor WR Hamstring Questionable
Tee Higgins WR Hamstring Probable
Hayden Hurst TE Calf Questionable
Eli Apple CB Ankle Questionable
Jalen Davis CB Thumb Questionable
Mike Hilton CB Knee Questionable
Jay Tufele DT Illness Questionable
Cam Taylor-Britt CB Shoulder Questionable
Sam Hubbard DE Calf Out
Trey Hendrickson DE Wrist Questionable

Patriots

Player Pos. Injury Status
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Ankle Questionable
Damien Harris RB Thigh Questionable
Tyquan Thornton WR Knee Questionable
DeVante Parker WR Concussion Questionable
Joe Cardona LS Ankle Questionable
Jake Bailey P Back Questionable
Jalen Mills CB Groin Questionable
Jack Jones DB Knee Questionable
Jonathan Jones DB Chest Questionable
Jakobi Meyers WR Shoulder Questionable

Bengals vs. Patriots Betting Analysis

Bengals Betting Insights

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The Bengals have covered the spread 11 times over 14 games with a set spread. In games they have played as 3-point favorites or more, the Bengals have an ATS record of 8-3.

This season, five Bengals games have gone over the point total. The Bengals finished with a 5-3 record in games they were favored on the moneyline last season (winning 62.5% of those games).

In games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -170 or shorter, the Bengals had a 4-1 record (winning 80% of their games).

Patriots Betting Insights

The Patriots are 7-6-1 against the spread this year. The Patriots are 1-2 ATS when playing as at least 3-point underdogs.

This year, Patriots games have hit the over six times. The Patriots have been underdogs in seven games this season and won one (14.3%) of those contests.

The Patriots have been at least a +145 moneyline underdog two times this season, but lost all of those games.

Bengals vs. Patriots Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bengals

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.6 47.5 44.1
Implied Total AVG 25.2 26.7 24.1
ATS Record 11-3-0 5-1-0 6-2-0
Over/Under Record 5-8-1 2-4-0 3-4-1
Moneyline Favorite Record 8-3 4-1 4-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-1 1-0 1-1

Patriots

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.5 42.4 42.5
Implied Total AVG 23.3 23.3 23.3
ATS Record 7-6-1 3-3-0 4-3-1
Over/Under Record 6-8-0 2-4-0 4-4-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-1 3-1 3-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-6 0-2 1-4

Players to Watch

Bengals

  • Joe Burrow has 3,885 passing yards (fourth in the NFL), 31 touchdowns (second in the NFL) and 10 interceptions this year. He has completed 68.2% of his passes, averaging 277.5 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt.
  • He has added 242 rushing yards (17.3 per game) and five touchdowns on the ground.
  • Joe Mixon averages 3.9 yards per carry (37th in the NFL) and 60.2 yards per game, and has 722 total rushing yards. He has scored six rushing TDs this season.
  • Mixon’s 60 targets as part of the passing attack have turned into 48 catches (four per game) for 357 yards (29.8 per game) and two touchdowns.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has eight touchdown catches this season (fifth in the NFL), and has 71 catches for 881 yards on 110 targets, while averaging 7.1 catches and 88.1 yards per game.
  • Tee Higgins averages 4.6 receptions and 63.9 yards per game, and has 894 total receiving yards and 65 catches. He’s gotten 94 total targets, and has caught six touchdown passes.
  • On defense for the Bengals, Logan Wilson has powered the unit with 104 tackles, three TFL, 1.5 sacks, and one interception in 2022.
  • Germaine Pratt has one sack to go with five TFL, 93 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Vonn Bell has put up 68 tackles, four TFL, one sack, and four interceptions this year.
  • So far this season, B.J. Hill has 61 tackles, two TFL, and two sacks. He’s fourth on the Bengals in tackles.

Patriots

  • Mac Jones is averaging 6.9 passing yards per attempt (21st in the NFL) and 210 yards per game this year, completing 65.8% of his passes on the way to 2,310 total yards, seven touchdowns and eight interceptions through 11 games.
  • Jones has also rushed for one touchdown and 97 yards (fourth on the Patriots).
  • Hunter Henry has put together a 2022 stat sheet that includes 30 catches for 415 yards and two receiving touchdowns over 14 games played. He has been on the receiving end of 46 targets and is averaging 2.1 receptions per game.
  • This season, Nelson Agholor has caught 31 passes for 362 receiving yards with two touchdowns in the passing game. He has been targeted 51 total times and is averaging 2.4 receptions per game in 13 games played.
  • Bailey Zappe has 781 passing yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. His completion percentage is 70.7% and he averages 195.3 yards per game and 8.5 per attempt.
  • So far in 2022, Matthew Judon has amassed 48 tackles, 11 TFL, and 14.5 sacks through 14 games.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley has three sacks (fourth on the Patriots) to go with three TFL, 93 tackles, and one interception.
  • Kyle Dugger has intercepted two passes on top of 55 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and six passes defended in the 2022 season.
  • Deatrich Wise’s stats include 49 tackles, six TFL, 6.5 sacks, and three passes defended in 14 games

Bengals vs. Patriots Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this matchup is the Bengals, and we predict that Patriots will cover the spread (Bengals -3). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 41.5 points.

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How to Bet on Bengals vs. Patriots

You can bet on Bengals vs. Patriots at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bengals vs. Patriots picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Luis Escalante

Luis has been a regular contributor to 4for4 since 2014 and is currently the Director of Strategy at Betsperts Group. Luis comes from an analytics background, leveraging his data skills with multiple years of experience in NFL, fantasy football, daily fantasy sports, and betting.

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