Chiefs vs Bengals Prediction: AFC Championship Picks, Live Odds & Start Time

JoeBurrowPointsFirstDown Betsperts Media & Technology

The Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) clash in the AFC Championship game of the NFL Playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, January 29, 2023.

Chiefs vs. Bengals Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1.5 points, with bookmakers listing the Chiefs as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Chiefs have -125 odds to pick up the win, while the Bengals are listed at +105 to claim victory.


Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 48 points.

BetMGM Sportsbook Promo
$1,500 in bonus bets if you don't win

Game Info

How to Watch Chiefs vs. Bengals Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, January 29, 2023
  • Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • Stadium: Arrowhead Stadium

Betting Preview


The Chiefs rank 11th in total defense this year (328.2 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been shining on the other side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with 413.6 total yards per game. Offensively, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit, ranking best in the NFL by totaling 29.2 points per game. They rank 16th on defense (21.7 points allowed per game).

The Chiefs have the 18th-ranked defense this year in terms of passing yards (220.9 allowed per game), and they’ve been better offensively, ranking best with 297.8 passing yards per game. The Chiefs are putting up 115.9 rushing yards per game on offense (20th in the NFL), and they rank eighth on defense with 107.2 rushing yards allowed per game.

On offense, the Chiefs have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by averaging a 48.7% third-down percentage. They rank 13th on defense (38.3% third-down percentage allowed). The Chiefs rank seventh in yards per play allowed this year (5.1), but they’ve been playing really well on offense, ranking best in the NFL with 6.4 yards per play. The Chiefs have forced 20 total turnovers (20th in NFL) this season and have turned it over 23 times (17th in NFL) for a turnover margin of -3, 22nd-ranked in the NFL.

FanDuel Promo Code
Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets


From an offensive angle, the Bengals are accumulating 360.5 total yards per game (eighth-ranked). They rank 16th in the NFL defensively (335.7 total yards surrendered per game). The Bengals have been excelling on defense, giving up only 20.1 points per game (fifth-best). On offense, they rank seventh by accumulating 26.1 points per game.

The Bengals’ passing attack has been leading the way for the team, as they rank fifth-best in the NFL with 265.0 passing yards per contest. In terms of defense, they are allowing 229.1 passing yards per game, which ranks 23rd. The Bengals rank fourth-worst in rushing yards per game (95.5), but they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking seventh in the NFL with 106.6 rushing yards allowed per contest.

The Bengals’ third-down defense ranks 20th in the NFL with a 39.6% third-down conversion rate allowed, but they’ve been led by their offense, which ranks third-best by posting a 46.1% third-down rate. In terms of yards per play, the Bengals rank 11th in the NFL (5.5) and 15th on the other side of the ball (5.4 yards allowed per play). The Bengals have registered 24 forced turnovers (11th in NFL) and committed 18 turnovers (fourth in NFL) this season for a +6 turnover margin that ranks sixth in the NFL.

DraftKings Promo Code
Bet $5, Get $200 + $150 in No Sweat Bets

Chiefs vs. Bengals Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Mecole Hardman WR Pelvis Questionable
Travis Kelce TE Back Questionable
Justin Watson WR Illness Questionable


Player Pos. Injury Status
Alex Cappa OG Ankle Out
Jonah Williams OT Knee Out
Drew Sample TE Knee Out

Chiefs vs. Bengals Betting Analysis

Chiefs Betting Insights

Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code
Claim a First Bet on Caesars up to $1,000!

The Chiefs’ record against the spread during the season was 6-10-1. They are 0-1-0 versus the spread in the postseason. The Chiefs’ ATS record as 1.5-point favorites or more is 4-10-1 (in the regular season and playoffs).

Out of 17 Chiefs games during the season, eight hit the over. In the playoffs, they have eclipsed the point total in zero of one contest. The Chiefs finished with a 13-2 record in games they were favored on the moneyline in the regular season (winning 86.7% of those games), and they have a record of 1-0 when favored on the moneyline in the playoffs.

The Chiefs have a 13-2 record (winning 86.7% of their games) in the regular season and playoffs when playing as a moneyline favorite of -125 or shorter.

Bengals Betting Insights

Against the spread, the Bengals were 12-4-0 during the regular season and are 1-1-0 in the playoffs. As 1.5-point underdogs or more, the Bengals are 3-0 against the spread in the regular season and playoffs.

Out of the 16 Bengals games during the regular season, six hit the over, and one of two in the playoffs. In the regular season, the Bengals were underdogs three times and won two of those games. They have gone 0-0 in the playoffs.

The Bengals have a record of 2-1, including the regular seaosn and postseason, in games when bookmakers have them as underdogs of at least +105 on the moneyline.

Chiefs vs. Bengals Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 49.6 49.1 50.1 52.0
Implied Team Total AVG 28.6 29.3 28.1 31.0
ATS Record 6-10-1 2-5-1 4-5-0 0-1-0
Over/Under Record 8-9-0 2-6-0 6-3-0 0-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 13-2 7-0 6-2 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-1 0-1 1-0 0-0


Overall Home Away Playoffs
Point Total AVG 44.9 46.4 43.8 44.3
Implied Team Total AVG 25.1 26.6 23.9 25.5
ATS Record 12-4-0 5-2-0 7-2-0 1-1-0
Over/Under Record 6-9-1 3-4-0 3-5-1 1-1-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 10-3 5-1 5-2 1-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-1 1-0 1-1 1-0

Players to Watch


  • Patrick Mahomes II ranks first in the NFL with 5,250 passing yards in 17 games this year, averaging 308.8 per game with a 67.1% completion percentage and 41 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against 12 interceptions.
  • He has tacked on 358 rushing yards (21.1 per game) and four touchdowns on the ground.
  • Travis Kelce‘s 1,338 receiving yards this season (eighth in the NFL) have come from 152 targets and 110 receptions (third in the NFL). He’s averaging 78.7 receiving yards and 6.5 catches per game, with 12 receiving touchdowns (second in the NFL).
  • Jerick McKinnon has 291 rushing yards with one touchdown (17.1 yards per game across 17 games).
  • McKinnon has received 71 targets in the passing game and has 56 catches (3.3 per game) for 512 yards (30.1 per game) and nine TDs.
  • Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 830 yards, averaging 48.8 yards per game and scoring five touchdowns.
  • On the defensive side, Nick Bolton has 2.0 sacks to go with 8.0 TFL, 179 tackles, and two interceptions in 2022.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has 3.5 sacks as well as 4.0 TFL, 107 tackles, and three interceptions.
  • Chris Jones has recorded 44 tackles, 16.0 TFL, 15.5 sacks, and four passes defended.
  • This season, Willie Gay Jr. has 87 tackles, 9.0 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and one interception.


  • Through 16 games played this year, Joe Burrow has racked up 4,475 passing yards (fifth-best in the NFL), while throwing 35 touchdowns (second in the NFL) against 12 interceptions and completing 68.3% of his passes.
  • He’s added 257 yards on the ground (third on the Bengals), while scoring five rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging 16.1 yards per game and 3.4 per attempt.
  • Joe Mixon has scored seven rushing touchdowns, while totaling 814 rushing yards (3.9 per attempt and 58.1 per game).
  • Mixon has also picked up 441 receiving yards (31.5 per game) on 60 catches (4.3 per game). He’s been targeted 74 times and has caught two touchdown passes.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has recorded 1,046 receiving yards and nine touchdowns (sixth in the NFL) on 87 receptions, while being targeted 134 times on the season.
  • Tee Higgins has been targeted 110 times, resulting in 74 catches for 1,029 yards .
  • Logan Wilson has put up 2.5 sacks (fifth on the Bengals) to go with 3.0 TFL, 121 tackles, and one interception through 15 games in 2022.
  • Sam Hubbard has totaled 6.5 sacks in addition to his 11.0 TFL and 60 tackles over 15 games.
  • Over the 2022 campaign, Germaine Pratt has 99 tackles, 5.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and two interceptions in 15 games.
  • Vonn Bell’s season stats include 78 tackles, 4.0 TFL, 1.0 sack, and four interceptions through 16 games. He is third on the Bengals in tackles.

Chiefs vs. Bengals Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this game is the Chiefs, and we predict that Bengals will cover the spread (Chiefs -1.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 48 points.

bet365 Sportsbook Promo
Bet $1, get $365 in bonus bets
FanDuel Promo Code
Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code
Claim a First Bet on Caesars up to $1,000!
DraftKings Promo Code
Bet $5, Get $200 + $150 in No Sweat Bets
BetMGM Sportsbook Promo
$1,500 in bonus bets if you don't win

How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Bengals

You can bet on Chiefs vs. Bengals at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Chiefs vs. Bengals picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.


Brian Twining

Sports, of all kind, have been a huge part of my life and daily routine for as long as I can remember. My favorite sports to watch are College Basketball, College Football, the NFL, MLB, Nascar, & the FIFA World Cup. My favorite sports to bet on are the NFL, Nascar, College Hoops, and College Football.

Deals of the Day

See All