Bengals vs. Bills Prediction: Week 9 Odds, Picks & Moneyline – November 5, 2023

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The Cincinnati Bengals (4-3), who have won three straight games, head into a game against the Buffalo Bills (5-3) on Sunday, November 5, 2023 at Paul Brown Stadium.

Bengals vs. Bills Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 1.5 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bengals as the favorites.


As for the moneyline, the Bengals have -125 odds to pick up the win, while the Bills are listed at +105 to claim victory.


Finally, the total for the game is set at 50.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch Bengals vs. Bills Live?

  • Game Day: Sunday, November 5, 2023
  • Game Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • TV Channel: NBC
  • Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Stadium: Paul Brown Stadium

Betting Preview


The Bengals rank fourth-worst in total offense (276.9 yards per game), but they’ve been a little better on defense, ranking 27th with 370.7 yards allowed per game. The Bengals are putting up 18.7 points per game on offense, which ranks them 23rd in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, they rank 17th, surrendering 20.6 points per contest.

The Bengals are compiling 197.9 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 23rd in the NFL. On defense, they rank 21st, surrendering 232.1 passing yards per game. It’s been a rough stretch for the Bengals in terms of running the ball, as they rank fourth-worst in rushing offense (79 rushing yards per game) and fifth-worst in rushing defense (138.6 rushing yards per game allowed) in 2023.

The Bengals are putting up a 33.7% third-down percentage on offense (27th in the NFL), and they rank 24th on defense with a 42.9% third-down conversion rate allowed. It’s been a tough stretch for the Bengals in terms of yards per play, as they rank third-worst in offensive yards per play (4.5) and third-worst in yards per play allowed (5.9) in 2023. The Bengals have forced 13 total turnovers (fifth in NFL) this season and have turned it over six times (second in NFL) for a turnover margin of +7, the third-best in the league.


The Bills’ offense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank fifth-best in the NFL with 376.9 total yards per game. In terms of defense, they are surrendering 326.1 total yards per game, which ranks 13th. Things have been going well for the Bills on both offense and defense, as they are posting 27.8 points per game (fourth-best) and ceding just 17 points per game (third-best).

The Bills’ pass defense ranks 10th in the NFL with 204.1 passing yards allowed per game, but they’ve been bolstered by their offense, which ranks fourth-best by racking up 263.8 passing yards per game. With 113.1 rushing yards per game on offense, the Bills rank 14th in the NFL. Defensively they rank 22nd, giving up 122 rushing yards per game.

The Bills’ third-down offense has been excelling, putting up a 49% third-down conversion percentage (second-best) this season. On defense, they rank 19th by allowing a 40% third-down rate. The Bills’ offense has been thriving in terms of yards per play, racking up 5.9 (third-best) this season. On defense, they rank 22nd by allowing 5.5 yards per play. The Bills own a +2 turnover margin this season, which ranks 11th in the NFL.

Bengals vs. Bills Injury Report


Player Pos. Injury Status
Joe Mixon RB Chest Probable
Josh Tupou DT Shoulder Out
D’Ante Smith OT Gameday inactive Out
Max Scharping OG Knee Probable
Devin Harper LB Gameday inactive Out
Trey Hill C Gameday inactive Out
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Knee Probable
DJ Ivey CB Gameday inactive Out


Player Pos. Injury Status
Poona Ford DT Gameday inactive Out
Baylon Spector LB Hamstring Out
Germain Ifedi OG Gameday inactive Out
Kaiir Elam CB Ankle Out
A.J. Klein ILB Back Out
Alec Anderson OT Gameday inactive Out

Bengals vs. Bills Betting Analysis

Bengals Betting Insights

The Bengals are 3-3-1 against the spread this season. The Bengals have an ATS record of 2-2-1 when playing as at least 1.5-point favorites.

This season, Bengals games have hit the over three times.

Bills Betting Insights

The Bills have covered the spread three times in eight games with a set spread.

Bills games have gone over the total three times this year. The Bills have not played a game this season while listed as the underdog.

The Bills have not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +105.

Bengals vs. Bills Against The Spread & Betting Records


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 44.9 45.5 44.5
Implied Team Total AVG 24 24.3 23.8
ATS Record 3-3-1 1-1-1 2-2-0
Over/Under Record 3-4-0 1-2-0 2-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 3-3 2-1 1-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-0 0-0 1-0


Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 45.6 47 43.2
Implied Team Total AVG 26.5 27.8 24.3
ATS Record 3-5-0 2-3-0 1-2-0
Over/Under Record 3-5-0 2-3-0 1-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 5-3 4-1 1-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Players to Watch


  • Joe Burrow has passed for 1,513 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions this year. He is averaging 216.1 yards per game and 5.7 per attempt, while completing 66.3% of his attempts.
  • Ja’Marr Chase has 60 catches (fourth in the NFL) for 656 yards (seventh in the NFL) and four TDs. In seven games, he is averaging 8.6 catches and 93.7 yards per game.
  • In seven games, Joe Mixon has picked up 453 rushing yards, averaging 64.7 yards per game and scoring two touchdowns.
  • Mixon has recorded 19 receptions, 127 yards and zero TDs through the air.
  • Tyler Boyd averages 4.7 receptions and 34.9 yards per game, and has 244 total receiving yards and 33 catches. He’s gotten 44 total targets, and has caught two touchdown passes.
  • Over on the defensive side, Logan Wilson has 57 tackles, four TFL, 0.5 sacks, and three interceptions in 2023.
  • Trey Hendrickson has eight sacks (sixth in the NFL) to go with eight TFL and 22 tackles.
  • Daxton Hill has recorded 51 tackles, four TFL, 1.5 sacks, and two interceptions this year.
  • So far this season, Sam Hubbard has 37 tackles, four TFL, and four sacks. He’s fifth on the Bengals in tackles.


  • Josh Allen is averaging 7.6 passing yards per attempt (fourth in the NFL) and 270.6 yards per game this year, completing 71.7% of his passes on the way to 2,165 total yards (fifth in the NFL), 17 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and eight interceptions through eight games.
  • On the ground, Allen has added five rushing touchdowns and 189 rushing yards (second on the Bills).
  • Stefon Diggs has 64 catches (first in the NFL) for 748 yards (fourth in the NFL) and six receiving touchdowns (third in the NFL). He has been targeted 90 times and averages eight receptions per game in eight games played.
  • This season through eight games, James Cook has churned out 486 rushing yards (leading the Bills and eighth in the NFL) and scored one rushing touchdown. He averages 60.8 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (ninth in the NFL).
  • In addition to his rushing stats, Cook has grabbed 18 passes (on 22 targets) for 192 yards (fourth on the Bills), with one receiving touchdown. He averages 24 yards per game.
  • Gabriel Davis has been targeted 47 times, resulting in 31 catches for 434 yards (sixth in the NFL).
  • Terrel Bernard has two sacks to go with six TFL, 76 tackles, and two interceptions through eight games in 2023.
  • Ed Oliver has five sacks (second on the Bills) to go with 10 TFL and 26 tackles.
  • In the 2023 campaign, A.J. Epenesa has 13 tackles, five TFL, five sacks, and one interception in eight games.
  • Taron Johnson has 41 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and three passes defended.

Bengals vs. Bills Predictions and Pick

Our pick to win this contest is the Bills, and we project that Bills will cover the spread (Bengals -1.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going under the posted total of 50.5 points.

How to Bet on Bengals vs. Bills

You can bet this Bengals vs. Bills pick at every legal online sportsbook

You can check our live NFL lines for the latest NFL odds, including money lines, spreads, and over/under totals.

Tip: If you want to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bengals vs. Bills picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

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Matt Rooney

Matt comes from Chicago and has lived in the area his whole life. Graduated from and played football at Illinois Wesleyan University in Bloomington, IL while also serving as the director of student sports broadcasting. He writes for Betsperts as well as appears on several shows across the network.

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