Bears vs Bills Prediction: Odds, Picks & Betting Preview Week 16 – December 24, 2022

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The Chicago Bears (3-11) will have their hearts set on halting their seven-game losing streak when they collide with the Buffalo Bills (11-3) at Soldier Field on Saturday, December 24, 2022.

Bills vs. Bears Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 8 points, with oddsmakers listing the Bills as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, the Bills have -380 odds to pick up the win, while the Bears are listed at +310 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 40 points.

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Game Info

How to Watch Bills vs. Bears Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, December 24, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Location: Chicago, Illinois
  • Stadium: Soldier Field

Betting Preview

Bills

The Bills rank ninth in total defense this year (325.4 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking second-best in the NFL with 400.6 total yards per game. The Bills have been making things happen on both sides of the ball this season, as they rank fourth-best in scoring offense (27.5 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (17.9 points allowed per game).

The Bills rank 18th in pass defense this year (219.3 passing yards allowed per game), but they’ve been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking fifth-best in the NFL with 265.7 passing yards per game. The Bills are averaging 134.9 rushing yards per game offensively this season (eighth in NFL), and they are giving up 106.1 rushing yards per game (sixth) on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bills rank 17th in third-down defense this season (39.3% third-down percentage allowed), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking second-best in the NFL with a 49.4% third-down conversion rate. The Bills own the 10th-ranked defense this season in terms of yards per play (5.2 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking third-best with 6.1 yards per play. With 22 forced turnovers (fourth in NFL) against 21 turnovers committed (27th in NFL), the Bills’ +1 turnover margin ranks 13th in the NFL.

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Bears

With 324 total yards per game on offense, the Bears rank 23rd in the NFL in 2022. Defensively, they rank 22nd, giving up 355.6 total yards per game. The Bears have been struggling defensively, ranking third-worst with 25.6 points surrendered per game. They have been more effective offensively, posting 20.7 points per contest (19th-ranked).

The Bears rank worst in passing yards per game (137.1), but they’ve been better on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 15th in the NFL with 211.7 passing yards surrendered per contest. The Bears’ run offense has been thriving, putting up 186.9 rushing yards per game (best) this season. On defense, they rank 27th by allowing 143.9 rushing yards per game.

The Bears have been struggling on third down, ranking worst with a 49.4% third-down conversion rate allowed per game. They have been better offensively, regstering a 44.6% third-down rate (seventh-ranked). The Bears’ defense has been struggling in terms of yards given up per play, ranking fourth-worst at 5.9. They have been more effective on the other side of the ball, regstering 5.4 yards per play (15th-ranked). With 18 forced turnovers (13th in NFL) and 19 turnovers committed (23rd in NFL) this season, the Bears rank 16th in the NFL with a turnover margin of -1.

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Bills vs. Bears Injury Report

Bills

Player Pos. Injury Status
Josh Allen QB Elbow Probable
Carlos Basham Jr. DE Calf Questionable
Mitch Morse C Concussion Questionable
Rodger Saffold OG Knee Probable
Matt Milano LB Knee Questionable
Ed Oliver DT Calf Questionable
Jordan Phillips DT Shoulder Questionable

Bears

Player Pos. Injury Status
Khalil Herbert RB Hip Questionable
Chase Claypool WR Knee Questionable
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Concussion Questionable
Jack Sanborn LB Ankle Out
Trevon Wesco TE Leg Questionable
Kindle Vildor DB Ankle Questionable
Armon Watts DT Shoulder Probable

Bills vs. Bears Betting Analysis

Bills Betting Insights

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The Bills have covered the spread six times over 14 games with a set spread. The Bills have an ATS record of 2-4 when playing as at least 8-point favorites.

This season, Bills games have hit the over four times. The Bills finished with a 9-5 record in games they were favored on the moneyline last season (winning 64.3% of those games).

In games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -380 or shorter, the Bills went 6-1 (85.7%).

Bears Betting Insights

The Bears are 5-9-0 against the spread this season. The Bears are 3-3 ATS when playing as at least 8-point underdogs.

Bears games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under nine times this year. The Bears have entered the game as underdogs 12 times this season and won twice.

The Bears have entered four games this season as the underdog by +310 or more and are 1-3 in those contests.

Bills vs. Bears Against The Spread & Betting Records

Bills

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 48.6 46.5 50.8
Implied Total AVG 28 28.1 27.9
ATS Record 6-8-0 3-4-0 3-4-0
Over/Under Record 4-10-0 4-3-0 0-7-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 11-3 6-1 5-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 0-0 0-0 0-0

Bears

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 42.6 43.4 41.8
Implied Total AVG 24.1 23.9 24.3
ATS Record 5-9-0 3-4-0 2-5-0
Over/Under Record 9-5-0 4-3-0 5-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 1-1 1-1 0-0
Moneyline Underdog Record 2-10 1-4 1-6

Players to Watch

Bills

  • Josh Allen has thrown for 3,857 yards (fifth in the NFL), 30 touchdowns (third in the NFL) and 11 interceptions this year. He averages 275.5 yards per game and 7.6 per attempt, while completing 63.7% of his attempts.
  • He has also rushed for 705 yards (first on the Bills) and added six touchdowns on the ground, while averaging 50.4 rushing yards per game.
  • Stefon Diggs has caught 99 passes (third in the NFL) on 141 targets for 1,299 total yards (third in the NFL) and 10 touchdowns. He is averaging 7.1 catches and 92.8 yards per game through 14 games.
  • Devin Singletary has 684 rushing yards with four touchdowns (48.9 yards per game across 14 games).
  • Singletary has gotten 49 targets in the passing game and has 35 catches (2.5 per game) for 258 yards (18.4 per game) and one TD.
  • Gabriel Davis has 42 catches for 752 yards and six touchdowns. He’s been targeted 76 times in the passing game, and averages 3.2 receptions and 57.8 yards through 13 games played.
  • On defense, Damar Hamlin has 1.5 sacks to go with four TFL and 84 tackles in 2022.
  • Tremaine Edmunds has 88 tackles, five TFL, and one sack this season. His tackle total leads the Bills.
  • Taron Johnson has totaled 79 tackles, four TFL, and one interception this year.
  • So far this season, Gregory Rousseau has 31 tackles, seven TFL, and seven sacks.

Bears

  • Justin Fields has thrown for 2,048 yards this year, with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He is completing 62% of his attempts while averaging 157.5 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.
  • Fields has also rushed for eight touchdowns and 1,000 yards (first on the Bears and seventh in the NFL).
  • David Montgomery averages 53.4 rushing yards per game over 13 games (694 total yards), while scoring five rushing touchdowns.
  • Montgomery has added 28 receptions (2.2 per game) for 282 yards (21.7 per game) with one receiving touchdown. He’s been targeted 33 times in the passing game.
  • Cole Kmet has totaled 433 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 39 receptions, while being targeted 55 times this season.
  • Dante Pettis has 215 receiving yards and two touchdowns from 15 receptions after receiving 29 targets.
  • Jaquan Brisker’s 2022 output includes 78 tackles, four TFL, three sacks, and one interception through 12 games. He is third on the Bears in tackles.
  • Nicholas Morrow has nine TFL and 94 tackles over 14 games.
  • Kyler Gordon has one TFL, 59 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Justin Jones’ season stats include 39 tackles, eight TFL, and two sacks in 14 games.

Bills vs. Bears Predictions and Pick

Our prediction to win this contest is the Bills, and we expect that Bills will cover the spread (Bills -8). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 40 points.

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How to Bet on Bills vs. Bears

You can bet on Bills vs. Bears at every legal online sportsbook. For more NFL odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as NFL prop odds, check out the latest NFL lines as well as our guide to the best NFL betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s Bills vs. Bears picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

WRITTEN BY

Andy Molitor

Andy has been involved in sports betting on and off his entire adult life and has been creating content surrounding it for the past five years. While the NFL is his first love, he also bets hundreds of college basketball games every winter and loves sweating golf DFS during the football offseason.

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